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Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

382 点作者 kitkat_new超过 2 年前

55 条评论

em500超过 2 年前
The title&#x2F;article seems to be a bit of a strawman, AFAICT countries (or their governments &#x2F; citizens) do not consider the GDP as the one and only measure of national success. Politics are driven by tons of different interest groups (in the broadest sense, ranging from corporate interests, environmental activists, minority representatives, medical or teaching professionals, farmers, retirees living on state pensions, etc, etc.), not by whether some policy might give a boost to GDP. I could argue that it would probably be better if they actually did, but that&#x27;s for another thread.<p>In truth, pretty much nobody really knows for sure what policies actually will increase GDP, or what causes the short term fluctuations (business cycle &#x2F; recession) or variation in long term divergense between different countries in the first place. The more honest academic economists will freely admit this. (I was explicitly thaught so in my graduate macro-economics courses). So I think it&#x27;s a strawman to think that countries&#x2F;governments are engating in some kind of myopic GDP maximization plan.<p>I think the appropriate analogy is household or personal income. (GDP is just all incomes in a country summed up and corrected for inflation.) It&#x27;s probably not the most important thing in the world, and probably not the most important determinant of personal happyness or life satisfaction. But a severe lack of it (especially compared to the people around you) or an unexpected large drop will probably be considered problematic by most people.
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nostromo超过 2 年前
It&#x27;s hard to overstate how terrible this idea is.<p>GDP is a concrete measure that is difficult to fake. Once you start arguing about the economic value of volunteering, divorce, income inequality, and crime -- you&#x27;ve opened the door to never being able to trust GDP again.<p>Should we create new metrics to track progress? Sure. Should we stop tracking GDP? No way.
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nitwit005超过 2 年前
This has been known since the idea was first conceived: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gross_domestic_product#Limitations_at_introduction" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gross_domestic_product#Limitat...</a><p>The real issue is simply that, a lot of the things we want to convert to simple metrics can&#x27;t be. Suppose I hand you a list of the exact rate each crime in a country was committed, and I ask you to convert that list to a single number, how would you do so? You could assign a weight to each crime, but how would you know which weights to use? What&#x27;s the &quot;true cost&quot; of each crime?<p>Of course, in reality we won&#x27;t know the real rate of any crime. We will have estimates, which are likely quite far from the truth.
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nonrandomstring超过 2 年前
Reading an earlier thread on Perl I was thinking about how concepts, language and behaviour relate (as Wittgenstein and Ayer might have it).<p>Someone mentioned how, as a Python user, they barely had to think about pointers&#x2F;references. Things get magically referenced when needed. Seems like progress.<p>When concepts get coded into a language, in this case &quot;economics&quot; (which is a tool for trying to see the world), they put down roots. Other concepts &quot;hang off&quot; them. So, we could certainly try to supplant GDP as a metric. But then what of all the other economic structures that people have built on GDP? Who will let go of those?<p>You have to tear down entire branches of thought and replace them with new utility concepts that make using old ones as anachronistic as using pointers in Python.
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lkrubner超过 2 年前
Robert Kennedy, on the campaign trail in 1968:<p>&quot;Too much and for too long, we seemed to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our Gross National Product, now, is over $800 billion dollars a year, but that Gross National Product - if we judge the United States of America by that - that Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage.<p>It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl.<p>It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman&#x27;s rifle and Speck&#x27;s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.<p>Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.<p>It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.<p>And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;datablog&#x2F;2012&#x2F;may&#x2F;24&#x2F;robert-kennedy-gdp" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;datablog&#x2F;2012&#x2F;may&#x2F;24&#x2F;robert...</a>
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fleddr超过 2 年前
&quot;The philosopher John Stuart Mill noted more than 200 years ago that, once decent living standards were assured, human efforts should be directed to the pursuit of social and moral progress and the increase of leisure, not the competitive struggle for material wealth&quot;<p>Yes, we took the wrong turn. Most people are subjected to a life long rat race of economic relevance&#x2F;volatility where most of their waking hours are spent just trying to make a living, by any means necessary.<p>What makes the state of humanity extra sad is that all this raping of the planetary resources that we do still does not elevate us out of this misery.<p>It&#x27;s unclear who this destructive machine is serving. Consider the point of view of an ordinary citizen. Who genuinely has your best interest at heart?<p>A business? No. A bank? No. A country? No.
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xnx超过 2 年前
GDP might be the ultimate example of Goodhart&#x27;s Law: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Goodhart%27s_law" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Goodhart%27s_law</a>
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imoreno超过 2 年前
GDP, like many economic metrics, is of course not an absolute indicator of anything significant. You can set up two shell companies and have them buy and sell the same paper clip between them thousands of times a second, for a million dollars each. It will boost GDP by quite a lot.<p>Of course historically, such deception has not always dominated, and the apparent GDP has been a good proxy for total genuine economic activity. Economic activity is in turn a proxy for confidence: If everyone is spending more money, it means they&#x27;re confident they see value being produced that they want to capture. Consumers presumably feel they&#x27;ll be comfortable for years to come. Businesses think it&#x27;s time to hire staff, increase production and focus on growth. These things by themselves can be seen as positive effects, but also it means GDP is effectively a crowdsourced predictor of future economic outlook. So GDP by itself isn&#x27;t that interesting, but it correlates with many economic phenomena that <i>are</i> of interest, which is why it&#x27;s been a popular measure.<p>I&#x27;m sure the article&#x27;s authors are well aware of this. If you look at the title closely, there&#x27;s a bit of sleight of hand: It is not common to claim (save perhaps for uneducated laypeople) that GDP is a measure of <i>national success</i>. It is commonly understood as a measure of <i>economic health</i>. Most people will readily grant that economic health does not necessarily mean national success, since they can decouple in crucial ways. For example, if your previously poor country suddenly becomes colonized by major imperialist powers, the GDP will certainly be bolstered, but the social and geopolitical effects may be detrimental. But when you <i>attack</i> the idea that GDP measures economic success, of course it sounds insightful, since it&#x27;s the kind of misapprehension that is tempting to ascribe to others and not yourself. &quot;Everyone has made a mistake- but not me!&quot;
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dongobongo超过 2 年前
From Luke Smith&#x27;s post on GDP: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;lukesmith.xyz&#x2F;articles&#x2F;why-its-bad-to-have-high-gdp&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;lukesmith.xyz&#x2F;articles&#x2F;why-its-bad-to-have-high-gdp&#x2F;</a><p>&quot;GDP is only a measurement of how reliant a place or country is on the global economy. Self-sufficiency has a GDP of 0. Wasteful consooomerism has an extremely large GDP.&quot;
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chrisweekly超过 2 年前
I like Bhutan&#x27;s constitutional adoption of &quot;Gross National Happiness&quot; as an alternative: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gross_National_Happiness" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gross_National_Happiness</a>
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photochemsyn超过 2 年前
To use an ecological analogy, it&#x27;s about as meaningul as the gross biological productivity of an ecosystem, which in the vast majority of systems means the amount of carbon converted to biomass by plant photosynthesis.<p>However this tells you very little about the health of the system - it could mean a river choked with invasive weeds and toxic algal blooms, or it could mean a river full of insects fed on by trout that local humans harvest regularly as a local source of protein.<p>Additionally, some ecosystems (like deserts) have low gross productivity, but as deserts go, are healthy ecosystems that just support less life than tropical rainforests do.<p>Hence, you just need a lot of other numbers <i>besides</i> GDP to make sense of how an economic system is doing overall. Proably about a dozen at least, but that&#x27;s too many for simplistic propaganda and click-bait headline purposes.
deltree7超过 2 年前
Nobody makes any policy decisions based on GDP.<p>It&#x27;s just a proxy of economic activity.<p>Nobody ever said, We (won&#x27;t) need policy X because we are at Y GDP.<p>Companies make decision based on supply&#x2F;demand.<p>So, this whole research is kinda pointless. In fact the worst thing anyone could do is have a metric and make the entire nation focus on that.
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kornhole超过 2 年前
The gig economy boosts GDP. If I work as an employee, I am just an expense to a company. If I setup an S corporation and contract my services to that same company, I am now growing the services sector and increasing GDP. I am still doing the same amount of work but just increasing transactions. I seem to be incentivized by pay and taxes to work as contractor, and this may be because the government is trying to pump GDP.
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eterevsky超过 2 年前
As the article correctly mentions, GDP is analogous to a company revenue. It doesn&#x27;t directly reflect the profit, but it is an objective metric which is relatively easy to reason about.
rav超过 2 年前
Needs (2014) in the title.
c7b超过 2 年前
Needs a (2014) tag.<p>Also, I am baffled that this is apparently a Nature publication, sounds more like an op-ed for a newspaper. What was the research result that was communicated in the article? It&#x27;s barely exhaustive enough to count as a literature review.
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incomingpain超过 2 年前
GDP is a poor metric. Of course it&#x27;s not going anywhere. They&#x27;ll be measuring GDP 1000 years from now; but perhaps we have a better metric that gets the spot light instead. It&#x27;s upon folks like nature to find the new metric. After this movement in 2014, there was a even worse attempt to use &#x27;happiness&#x27; as a measurement but that sure fell on its face badly.<p>To me there are a few immediate problems with GDP that if addressed and measured may start showing a different picture of the world.<p>RAW GDP in 2021 for the USA is about 23 trillion; an increase from 21 trillion. You have to exclude unfunded debt. Which is roughly 2 trillion in 2021. Then you also have to exclude, NOT include public administration. So a 4 trillion shift. We are roughly at 15 trillion.<p>Then you also have to exclude inflation; which at these measurement points was roughly 7%. So we&#x27;re about 14 trillion from the original 21 trillion.<p>So in 2021, the claim was 6% gdp growth, but true GDP was more along the lines of -30%. This is shocking, but mainly because we&#x27;re looking at a fake 21 trillion. So we would have to do the same transform on the 2020 numbers.<p>Basically what I&#x27;m illustrating is government deficit spending, real gdp, and public administration are some significant negatives to GDP.
DeathArrow超过 2 年前
&gt;GDP measures mainly market transactions. It ignores social costs, environmental impacts and income inequality.<p>But GDP&#x27;s role was never to measure income inequality, environmental impacts, diversity, affirmative actions. It was always an economic tool, not a SJW tool.<p>As an economic tool it just measures how well a country is able to produce and sell goods and services. And for that purpose I know no other better tool than it and it&#x27;s derivative, GDP per capita adjusted for PPP.
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javajosh超过 2 年前
So if passive income is the rational goal, shouldn&#x27;t that be the measure of national success - numbers that express the shape and scale or aggregate passive income. It&#x27;s also worth assuming that the equity barons (to borrow a term from The Diamond Age) hire capable administrators close to home, who get cushy office jobs and even small profit to invest and get a little equity themselves. One can also discuss more and less desirable distributions between the equity barons and admins. The rest of the world gets nothing, or as little as is necessary to keep the peace, and America remains in undisputed charge until some natural disaster ends human life. And absent any particular reason to spread life beyond our thin and fragile biosphere, we won&#x27;t.<p>Rather than paper over the ugliness I think we should accept it and see what can be made of it. A nation will have succeeded if it can spread life beyond Earth. It will have succeeded if it can protect it&#x27;s citizens capacity for a calm, creative, productive life filled with wonder and joy long enough for enough people to realize this, and get to work. It&#x27;s not going to be easy, and our time is limited.
jamesgill超过 2 年前
The silliness of GDP is one of the worst-kept secrets in politics and economics. It&#x27;s like measuring the quality of a car by how fast it&#x27;s going.
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joshe超过 2 年前
Here&#x27;s a good explanation about why gdp is important.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;noahpinion.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;four-reasons-why-gdp-is-a-useful" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;noahpinion.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;four-reasons-why-gdp-is-a-...</a><p>It is only one measure of success, but it is not misleading. You can just use it and 6 other measures. Then if infant mortality goes way up you can still say let&#x27;s figure out how to manage that and if it costs some gdp, that&#x27;s fine. In fact real policy is saying we should spend more of that gdp on prenatal care for example. Doing that will neither make gdp go up or down.<p>And it&#x27;s unclear who they&#x27;re even talking about here. In the democracies politicians hardly talk about it at all. It&#x27;s usually healthcare, some group is bad, or something should be regulated differently (like energy).<p>Here&#x27;s even more depth: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;what-is-economic-growth" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;what-is-economic-growth</a>
knaekhoved超过 2 年前
&quot;... and replace it with a metric which explicitly optimizes for all the policies I personally like.&quot;
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paxys超过 2 年前
It&#x27;s funny to argue on one hand that GDP is broken because it tracks only economic metrics and not social ones, and then push another index (GPI) which claims that &quot;genuine progress&quot; peaked in the 70s and went only downhill from there.<p>If &quot;back in my day...&quot; was an index this would be it.
steven_noble超过 2 年前
It&#x27;s grossly misleading to suggest that economists use GDP as a measure of national success
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pasabagi超过 2 年前
This whole question of &#x27;are material things really all that matters&#x27; is kind of boring, but the article does provoke an interesting question: how do you handle bubbles?<p>If you have a colossal GDP, but it&#x27;s all hinging on a very hot tulip (or housing) market, does that really do all the things a colossal GDP that&#x27;s, say, service economy based?<p>One of the things people like about GDP is you can sort of get a good guess about how, when the rubber hits the road and countries start pushing and shoving each other, or a calamity like COVID occurs, how it&#x27;s going to turn out. I wonder how the extremely bubbly (almost foam-like) post-70&#x27;s economy factors into this.
ummonk超过 2 年前
Does anyone think GDP is a measure of national success?<p>What it is is an indispensable measure of the strength of a nation&#x27;s market economy - which is a major limiting factor in tackling actual end goals such as the well-being of the population.
paxys超过 2 年前
I don&#x27;t think there is any agreed upon measure of &quot;national success&quot;. GDP as a measure pretty closely tracks the economic condition of a country, and that is what it is used as.
Guthur超过 2 年前
Preparing the ground for a complete collapse in your standard of living...<p>&quot;Don&#x27;t worry your happiness was only an idea and didn&#x27;t really exist anyway&quot;
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tabtab超过 2 年前
One problem with this idea is that if you don&#x27;t grow your GDP, countries that do grow it will stomp you militarily and&#x2F;or diplomatically.
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627467超过 2 年前
IMO the main limitation preventing GDP from being a much better indicator of national success is due to its inability to show how growth - or more importantly - wealth is distributed. Obviously, wealth distribution is critical part of making progress and comfort more distributed and this is what in fact makes nations more successful than others in long term.
lamename超过 2 年前
The Growth Delusion covers the pros, the cons, &amp; the alternatives<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.goodreads.com&#x2F;book&#x2F;show&#x2F;36130581-the-growth-delusion" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.goodreads.com&#x2F;book&#x2F;show&#x2F;36130581-the-growth-delu...</a>
rongopo超过 2 年前
And economists do not care about the problem. Often because they were not told so at college.
thomasfl超过 2 年前
...and it is destroying our planet fast.<p>GDP was never ment to be used as tool for measuring anything other than how fast the British economy grew after the recession. A lot has happened since then, almost 100 years ago. GDP has unfortunately stuck as a tool.
RcouF1uZ4gsC超过 2 年前
I am sure the Afghan Taliban and the Iranian Mullahs agree:<p>You can&#x27;t put a price on female virtue&#x2F;modesty&#x2F;chastity. So while keeping our women locked away at home depresses the GDP, it is a misleading measure of national success anyway.
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Jedd超过 2 年前
I accept that fiat money is <i>entirely</i> supported by the notion of perpetual growth, but in the abstract it&#x27;s hard to come to terms with the idea our society is so fundamentally committed to, and reliant upon, <i>growth</i>.
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bartimus超过 2 年前
It&#x27;s just one of many indicators and I will most certainly not leave it behind.
refurb超过 2 年前
People love to rail against GDP as a bad measure, but what do you think pays for all those social programs and healthcare? It doesn&#x27;t grow on trees.<p>More GDP = more money for things you want.
Bubble_Pop_22超过 2 年前
Given the established link between energy consumption and human welfare and happiness...why not use BTU consumed per capita? Or even Barrels of oil equivalent.
astatine超过 2 年前
When the G20 looks like it will (in a decade?) have 15 countries who were not part of the original lot, naturally GDP as a metric will lose favor &#x2F;s
tbihl超过 2 年前
As another great example of this: hurricane Katrina was a huge stimulus for economic activity in New Orleans, measured in terms of GDP.
bawolff超过 2 年前
I thought it was obvious that gdp isn&#x27;t the be all and end all. &quot;All models are wrong, some are useful&quot; and all that.
ttkari超过 2 年前
Of course it is, as a measure of national success it should be replaced with the number of girls who ride their bikes to school.
BenGosub超过 2 年前
The higher the GDP, the more taxes for the government. This is I think the main reason why this number is the main target.
bovermyer超过 2 年前
So... not to denigrate Bhutan or anything, but how and why did Bhutan come up with the global happiness index?
yrgulation超过 2 年前
A bit like how pretax salary doesnt measure income. Too few understand that.
Zigurd超过 2 年前
This is one of the papers cited: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.semanticscholar.org&#x2F;paper&#x2F;Beyond-GDP%3A-Measuring-and-achieving-global-genuine-Kubiszewski-Costanza&#x2F;d33cb5bf58e0ee1bfadd2f4f65f54546036857e2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.semanticscholar.org&#x2F;paper&#x2F;Beyond-GDP%3A-Measurin...</a><p>The graphs are very interesting, especially the divergence of GDP from GPI in China. While the theory that GDP is a poor measure of delivering real improvement to human lives is believable, the numbers for China may also indicate they may have been cooking the GDP books since about the early 2000s.<p>Unfortunately there is a lot of anti-China disinfo going around. But untrustworthy data from China is a thing. I wonder if this research will reveal that not only has quality of life stagnated in China, but also the GDP numbers are not as good as has been claimed for over a decade, which affects assessments of sovereign and private debt, etc.
bohadi超过 2 年前
Next peer-reviewed journal debunks that measure of man his bank account.
NaturalPhallacy超过 2 年前
I&#x27;ve thought the Gini coefficient was better than GDP ever since I learned of it: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gini_coefficient" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gini_coefficient</a>
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andrewmutz超过 2 年前
Can we update the title to reflect that this is 8 years old? (2014)
osterwood超过 2 年前
I was surprised to learn that, in the US, health care is part of GDP. How messed up is that? Health care costs are not a productive output of an economy and to include them in GDP is ludicrous.
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mind-blight超过 2 年前
This should be marked as [2014]
club_tropical超过 2 年前
salus populi suprema lex<p>The primary measure should be the physical health of the humanstock. If your &quot;line goes up&quot; but you have obese, mentally fragile, neurotic people on your hands, you&#x27;re doing something wrong. Many things will follow naturally once you make peak physical health the top goal.
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a-dub超过 2 年前
p50 standard of living seems like the obvious one to me.
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lifeplusplus超过 2 年前
i agree but timing is too suspicious to not see it as political
rajeshp1986超过 2 年前
It is interesting how western countries want to change the metric for economic progress when they are lagging on it. They wouldn&#x27;t leave GDP as metric if all was well.
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