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New Zealand plunges into recessionary spiral

83 点作者 koyanisqatsi超过 2 年前

11 条评论

hn_throwaway_99超过 2 年前
One clarification if you&#x27;re not familiar with New Zealand banking. The article states:<p>&gt; Last week, Bank of New Zealand warned that “things could well and truly turn to custard” as the global economy is plunged into recession.<p>I read that and thought &quot;Holy hell, central bankers in the US are usually extremely measured in their comments, they would never say something like &#x27;things could well and truly turn to custard&#x27;&quot;. I misunderstood, thinking that &quot;Bank of New Zealand&quot; is their central bank. It&#x27;s just another big bank, not &quot;The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&quot;, which is their actual central bank.
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jamesvnz超过 2 年前
That&#x27;s a rather sensationalist headline. Written by an Australian looking at graphs, rather than having a feel for what&#x27;s going on.<p>I&#x27;m sure he&#x27;s a capable economist, but based on what I see, New Zealand is not &quot;plunging&quot;. There&#x27;s definitely a slow down - but I think most businesses are expecting a relatively soft landing.<p>I guess time will tell.
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vosper超过 2 年前
ITT: Lots of people from overseas wondering how New Zealand&#x27;s mortgage and housing market works.<p>This post is wrong, we&#x27;re not in a recessionary spiral. Households (and banks!) are overall doing fine. Unemployment is at record lows, wages are rising faster than inflation, non-performing (ie in default) mortgages are at 0.2% of all mortgages (lower than GFC), mortgages are stress-tested to higher levels than we&#x27;re seeing. Banks are extremely healthy (making money hand over fist).<p>Consumer confidence is low, but it&#x27;s low in defiance of reality.<p>For more see here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;thekaka.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;incomes-are-rising-faster-than-prices" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;thekaka.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;incomes-are-rising-faster-tha...</a>
hedora超过 2 年前
Figure 9 looks dire: 95% of mortgage (by total value, not count) are going to have their rates adjusted in the next three years; 56% in the next year.<p>In the US, that&#x27;d definitely lead to a housing crisis worse than 2008. Is there something different about how houses are purchased in NZ?
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abeppu超过 2 年前
As an American I was struck by the graph of mortgages by fixed term length. I guess I&#x27;ve always heard that US home buyers are constantly benefiting from policies propping up 30 year fixed mortgages, and I knew that other places this wasn&#x27;t the norm. But it&#x27;s surprising to me that a majority of mortgage debt in NZ is fixed for less than 1 year. Even in years that don&#x27;t see rapid interest rate changes, this must make it very hard to plan.
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Waterluvian超过 2 年前
I&#x27;m sensing this tremendous tension and anxiety in Canada too. Hopefully our energy sector will buoy things a bit so they don&#x27;t get too terrible.
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jeffbee超过 2 年前
Their consumer sentiment is only at -25 for major household goods? In the U.S. it is -35!<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.sca.isr.umich.edu&#x2F;get-chart.php?y=2022&amp;m=9&amp;n=35h&amp;d=ylch&amp;f=pdf&amp;k=c3244dd3400979beb0ae35163566af46e1dd90156bffe90dd287898f4c1827d9" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.sca.isr.umich.edu&#x2F;get-chart.php?y=2022&amp;m=9&amp;n=35...</a>
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pessimizer超过 2 年前
What do all these goofy polls have to do with a &quot;recessionary spiral?&quot;<p>The only data in this is at the end, and it is not particularly interesting. NZ homeowners will be affected by rising interest rates.
damiankennedy超过 2 年前
It doesn&#x27;t feel like a recession but something is wrong. Our &quot;go hard, go early&quot; approach to covid meant we avoided a lot of tragedy but the govt printed that money. Now we&#x27;re having an inflation shock leading to an interest rate shock. The shrinkflation is insidious when the packaging hasn&#x27;t changed. The thing is, unemployment is so low, it&#x27;s like the whole country is running to stand still.
jesuscript超过 2 年前
What are the chances the private sector wants to play up the possibility of recession to preempt government freebies?<p>“Keep buying those mortgage backed loans”, for example<p>“Keep those interest rates near zero”<p>What do they have at stake?
mmazing超过 2 年前
Wow! That&#x27;s a lot of variable rate or only temporarily fixed rate mortgages!<p>I&#x27;m certainly no expert in all of this, how does that stack up with other countries data?
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