“There will never be more children alive on the Earth than there is today.”

This year, like so many others I&#x27;m sure, I found Peter Zeihan&#x27;s books, which have been really eye opening in terms of what has happened and what&#x27;s coming. It&#x27;s not perfect, and at times it comes out a bit gloomier than expected, but it&#x27;s certainly illuminating on a lot of topics. I highly recommend his books and videos as much as possible.<p>Edited to add link. And also, I&#x27;d say that even though climate change impacts lots of regions of the world, fossil fuel is what has enabled our massive growth this past century. And renewable energies are not even remotely close in terms of providing the energy for that kind of growth. Not just because there&#x27;s not enough of them, but because we&#x27;d need more mining than this planet can provide us with in order to meet those needs. So what I&#x27;m trying to say is that if you&#x27;re concerned about falling demographics, better start embracing fossil fuel more. Either that, or come up with a different economic system in which there are fewer of us and we still manage to avoid famines and reduce poverty around the world.<p>Demographics: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;xD-pj6i4b8A" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;xD-pj6i4b8A</a><p>Here&#x27;s one on agriculture: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;myjLrulhMzk" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;myjLrulhMzk</a>

Eventually evolution will catch up. Surely there must be some gene that motivates us to have a lot of kids. If such a gene exists it will quickly wipe out any genetic competition. It could also work indirectly, for instance a genetic disposition that pushes humans into fundamentalist religions that are opposed to birth control.

I suspect that over the next few decades we will see the countries with the lowest birth rates start to push massive incentives for having more children.<p>The global economy runs on growth. If the population starts noticeably declining, it’ll take the economy down with it.

Tell me about it. After just a few years of high birth rates, it has now become virtually <i>impossible</i> for us to find a Kindergarten for our daughter, public or private, although the law clearly states that she is entitled to one. According to latest estimates, there will be a lack of 400.000 Kindergarten places in 2023 here [0].<p>Demographics predicted falling birth rates for decades, and politicians acted accordingly. Turns out even demographers cannot predict the future. The basic problem seems to be that it takes longer to educate a kindergarten teacher than for a child to reach kindergarten age. I fear a complete collapse of the school system here in 2026.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spiegel.de&#x2F;panorama&#x2F;bildung&#x2F;bertelsmann-studie-fuer-2023-fehlen-fast-400-000-kitaplaetze-in-deutschland-a-42665fec-f6a1-41a6-a4bd-66efcc3e5fda" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spiegel.de&#x2F;panorama&#x2F;bildung&#x2F;bertelsmann-studie-f...</a>

I think the most likely late 21st C. path is the emergence of empires again, and great-power politics.<p>Rich nations will need to find someway of &quot;finding&quot; their retirement support from poor nations; and poor nations will, typically, experience more mass migrations from changing climate.<p>I suspect this will lead to large armies, high walls, and a certain sort of &quot;human mercantilism&quot; in which young immigrants are a kind of resource.

Birth growth acceleration peaked in 1968, so yes they have had 50 years to write this article.

Clickbait - the article barely goes out 100 years, mostly focusing on the next few decades. Too bad because it’s an interesting piece on its own, but no discussion at all about the never.<p>Obviously we have no idea how things will play out in the next few thousand years or more, but it is certainly possible that in the future there will be more alive than today.

Actual title of the article: &quot;World&#x27;s population 8 billion and counting&quot;

If only we had some tools right in front of our noses… hm… like a large western religion preaching self-sacrifice with a complicated&#x2F;adversarial relationship to birth control…

The earth seems to be doing fine with 7 billions, I bet 17 billions would be fine .. of course with many weird ways of doing things. If it&#x27;s a market who dares to short .. the numbers within 200 years?