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Mortgage Rates Could Tank Home Prices by 20%, Fed Study Finds

40 点作者 fairytalemtg超过 2 年前

12 条评论

asdajksah2123超过 2 年前
Good. America needs to stop trying to make the existing rich richer by artificially propping up house prices, and therefore preventing those who want to build wealth from being able to buy a house and start doing so.<p>This would not be a problem if the entire US economy, right from nearly every tax incentive, to the schools you send your kids to, to the opportunities that are available to you and your kids, etc. wasn&#x27;t based on home ownership and making home ownership the primary source of building starting wealth.<p>The other alternative is to find a high paying FAANG or finance job and&#x2F;or starting a company. The former is available to a select few, and the latter also is built on owning a home, because many people who start companies will often find funding to start, maintain, and&#x2F;or grow their company by taking loans against their homes.<p>Because, once again, the entire US system is built around rewarding home ownership, and so it&#x27;s the only source of wealth building available to the vast majority of Americans.
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Arubis超过 2 年前
That&#x27;s....okay? Most home prices are up well over 20% over the last couple years, so no real net loss for anyone that bought before the pandemic. Most likely, the folks that bought at the peak will feel squeezed for a bit, and might be slightly underwater (which feels terrible), then time and inflation will even this out over a couple years.<p>It does suck for anyone who&#x27;s in a position where they _must_ sell their property right now, and not buy another one. It sucks, albeit somewhat less, for someone who got a nice APR on their mortgage and needs to move; their purchasing power is reduced, and they&#x27;ll pay a premium on the new mortgage until the market&#x27;s in a place that refinancing will make sense, which could be a while.<p>But we&#x27;re not seeing a 2008 right now, or a 50%+ drop in valuation, or anything crazy like that. We could get there! That would be scary! But this feels more like a correction than &quot;tanking&quot;.
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jpadkins超过 2 年前
Note that this doesn&#x27;t necessarily mean home purchases are more affordable. For example, $1M home at 3% interest(30year) = ~$4200 monthly payment. $800k home at 6% interest = $4800 monthly payment.<p>It just means more of the home is going to pay interest, and less is going to the seller.
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maxfurman超过 2 年前
I bought in 2016, and, if Zillow is to be believed, its resale value has increased by over 30% in that time. That&#x27;s crazy, right? The minor improvements I&#x27;ve made in the last few years can&#x27;t possibly be worth that much. Philly is not a 30% nicer place to live than it was 5 years ago, to put it nicely. If prices go down and I&#x27;m &quot;only&quot; up 10% over when I bought that&#x27;s still pretty good.<p>Asset prices, particularly homes, have been puffed up by ZIRP and other factors for a long time, and are overdue for a correction.
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tricksforfree超过 2 年前
Good.<p>Maybe the people who didn&#x27;t bail on their communities during covid can finally afford a home.
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bm3719超过 2 年前
If you&#x27;re a cash buyer and considering upgrading, it might be your chance soon. It&#x27;s hard to make this work perfectly within life circumstances of course, but the ideal timing is to upgrade when the sticker price drops, and downgrade when it&#x27;s high. Mortgage buyers are usually doing the opposite, since they&#x27;re the reason the prices are moving in whichever direction in the first place.<p>We&#x27;ve still got a way to go to shave off the bloat of the past several years (my home value has gone up 50% since I bought it 4 years ago), but I planned on giving the market a good look in a year or so. A casual glance at Zillow in my area already shows several times the listings count from this time last year. So, it&#x27;s definitely happening right now.
stickyricky超过 2 年前
Hard disagree. I&#x27;m not a Fed economist though...<p>How is a scarce resource going to devalue in a high inflationary environment? The cost of building homes continues to go up, the availability of land has not changed, restrictive housing policies are not being lifted, wages are growing, the population is growing... Where does the decline in price come from?<p>Demand side prices can come down if lots are divided. But supply side profit remains the same or grows. High rates will not help first-time home buyers. More housing will.
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chester195超过 2 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;mL9Xr" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;mL9Xr</a>
bigtex超过 2 年前
Here in Texas that means lower property taxes so I am excited about it. When your home value triples in 8 years due to no fault of your own I can stand for a reduction in what I pay the local government.
nine_k超过 2 年前
If home prices go down, what happens to the incentives to build new houses. Will building to sell remain a good use of money?
datalopers超过 2 年前
Only 20% is a very rosy estimate.
jlarocco超过 2 年前
Sounds like our &quot;affordable housing&quot; problems are solved then...