US annual inflation declines to 7.1% in November vs. 7.3% expected

Remember that "declines" in this context just means that prices are going up slightly slower than they were before. It doesn't mean anything's getting any cheaper.

&quot;The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.&quot;<p>I feel like the rise of only 0.1% October-&gt;November is more significant than the 7.1% YOY headline number, which is taking into account a lot of inflation that has already happened months ago. Of course, back in July we had a 0.0% MoM CPI increase that looked promising, but that didn&#x27;t last long: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bls.gov&#x2F;news.release&#x2F;cpi.nr0.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bls.gov&#x2F;news.release&#x2F;cpi.nr0.htm</a>

It&#x27;s more helpful to look at a graph to see trends: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;?g=XCAY" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;?g=XCAY</a><p>As one can see, the CPI was fairly steep during the period from Jan 2021 till June 2022; from there it has visibly flattened.<p>EDIT: A rolling 6 month annualized rate makes the drop pretty obvious: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;spreadsheets&#x2F;d&#x2F;1VCEwEDWCAaWhmbosXIcDxt0Ar9fRq6e99IaxQ0bOJMI&#x2F;edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;spreadsheets&#x2F;d&#x2F;1VCEwEDWCAaWhmbosXIcD...</a>

I suspect some of this is because the level of economic activity is dropping.

Reminder: Inflation is a vector, not a scalar. Ignore the abstraction at your own risk.<p>Inflation is the rise in price of every single item for sale across a market, not just the &quot;basket&quot; of goods selected to be a good example, and subject to adjustment and correction over time.<p>It is entirely possible that inflation that averages out to 10% for a year may double the cost of living for some people, and actually make things cheaper for others.

once the SPR cannot be drained to manipulate gasoline costs, things will get interesting.

the punishment will continue until you&#x27;re hurting.

i guess the thing in ukraine is paying off for the us. eu gives its energy shackles to an ally at a much greater cost