CA high-speed rail is Exhibit A for how America can’t build big things anymore

In 1989 Texas created the Texas High Speed Rail Authority to connect Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. Their goal was to award a semi-private high speed rail franchise from high speed rail vendors. SouthWest petitioned to be included in the authority and effectively killed it<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;txarchives.org&#x2F;tslac&#x2F;finding_aids&#x2F;20071.xml#:~:text=The%20settlement%20agreement,by%20any%20agency" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;txarchives.org&#x2F;tslac&#x2F;finding_aids&#x2F;20071.xml#:~:text=...</a>.

Annie Duke on EconTalk had the best analysis of why it’s failing. The project is perennially having its funds being directed to solve the easiest problems (how to build high speed rail on flat ground in Central Valley) and ignoring major structural challenges (how to cross the mountain ranges into LA). So we’re don’t actually know how much it’ll cost to complete because the hardest parts of the project haven’t even begun.<p>Secondarily there’s all sorts of weird decisions being made that cripple HSR like limiting it to using Caltrain track in the Bay Area (limiting it to 110mph or even less in practice due to stops &#x2F; contention &#x2F; etc) and having HSR have a bunch of stops instead of keeping it non stop at high speed and using local light rail to connect to it. For example, as I understand it, the line in LA makes a weird circuitous out of the way bend to service a suburb of LA which adds significant transit time for very few people vs keeping a straighter route and connecting that suburb with light rail &#x2F; subway &#x2F; buses.<p>Finally, the project is being built as all or nothing instead of the sane way (at least IMHO) of starting in LA and the Bay Area where it might have the possibility of generating revenue and value earlier. You’d need to actually decouple it from local rail so that you stop in San Jose and SF and use CalTrain if you need to stop elsewhere (and maybe one other stop somewhere in the middle). Going from San Jose to SF at 200 mph would be a game changer. It would also be nice if they designed the track to support 300-400 mph trains in the future without needing to rebuild the rail.

High-speed rail requires a new railway that has no grade crossings of highways, has wider-radius curves than freight lines, can have higher grades than freight lines, and has better rails and sleepers.<p>There is no chance of getting new high-speed railways built through the outskirts of major metro areas, so there will always be long end sections operating at less than 90 mph.<p>Smaller cities along the lines will also want service, so trains will have to decelerate, loiter, and accelerate multiple times between major metro areas.<p>The end result is that in the US high-speed rail is impossible to build, and it would operate on average at far less than the maximum speed.<p>Acela on the Northeast Corridor is about as fast as it will get. Even there, Boston to NY times could be improved by realigning some tracks in eastern CT and RI to remove tight curves, but even that has not been done.

Noah Smith seems to be perpetually wrong about pretty much everything.<p>Some ideas are bad. You have to update your priors at some point. The politicians in charge can also be bad. He isn’t wrong about that. But swapping out Newsom for some new guy isn’t going to fix hsr. The state will vote in someone who is basically the same.<p>There’s a lot of “foolish consistency” when it comes to hsr. Update your priors, admit you were wrong and move on. There are better ways to spend those billions.

Twitter posts are so impersonal. Anyone can complain on Twitter. It is sad that people have forgotten how to write articles and do the news stories that they want to see instead of just going and posting something negative in a few words. It really has taken society down a notch in itself to try to get people all emotional with so little effort.

In many cases is it NIMBY, but also all the regulations about labor and the fact people in the US do not want to pay any taxes. Even if the tax helps people here, the answer is always no.

Maybe it&#x27;s fine?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=PwNthD-LRTQ">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=PwNthD-LRTQ</a>

It would be interesting to make a list of politicians and decision makers along that route, and then map their &quot;influences&quot;. For example, Politician X receives $Y from the airline industry or the auto industry. Or Consultant Z is married to VP at company that will suffer from the rail line being operational.<p>These strings exist. Who is pulling them?

Good? The advertised price tag (let alone whatever the actual cost would be) seems totally out of line with the value provided. If the goal of the project could be clearly stated, it would be apparent that HSR makes no sense.

China has passed 25,000 miles of HSR.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;High-speed_rail_in_China" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;High-speed_rail_in_China</a><p>China’s development of both low-speed and high-speed maglevs seems promising too.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.xinhuanet.com&#x2F;english&#x2F;2020-12&#x2F;15&#x2F;c_139591288.htm" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.xinhuanet.com&#x2F;english&#x2F;2020-12&#x2F;15&#x2F;c_139591288.htm</a><p>Plenty of cities could use trains that travel smoothly at 70 mph.

California chooses who they elect for reasons other than they are effective politicians. The government’s main expertise is incinerating taxpayer money while simultaneously convincing their constituents that their enormous tax burden is a useful thing.<p>The fact they have re-elected Pelosi multiple times while never investigating her for inside trading is a positive indication of priorities.

As a public transit advocate, I have to say the sheer expansive distance between cities on the West Coast makes it ill suited for rail.

As long as the government continues subsidizing highways and the road network, high-speed rail will always be the unattractive option.

How should we factor in Bent Flyvbjerg&#x27;s work?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;235953040_Delusion_Deception_and_Corruption_in_Major_Infrastructure_Projects_Causes_Consequences_Cures" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;235953040_Delusion_...</a>

It is interesting that deceased Richard Blum (husband of Senator Dianne Feinstein of California) is the primary property holders of many old and shuttered post offices (with intent to build train stations).<p>Blum Capital probably now is the largest investor of California High Speed Rail consortium.

The twitter comments are mind boggling

That&#x27;s entirely a California problem, not an America problem.

It&#x27;s always interesting that when Democrats fail at something, they try to broaden the blame. They&#x27;re in charge, yet it is &quot;America&quot; that can&#x27;t get it done. California has been controlled by Democrats for a very long time, with any other viewpoints shut out. And yet, they keep doubling down on what doesn&#x27;t work.<p>Isn&#x27;t the first step to change admitting you screwed up?