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Java is in decline, and there's data to prove it

58 点作者 philonoist超过 2 年前

30 条评论

hugofirth超过 2 年前
Man I was frustrated by this article. Despite it being on a subject matter I normally ignore, it lured me in with the promise to “dig into data publicly in a way that (so far) I haven’t seen anyone else do”.<p>I was expecting some novel analysis of in depth data scraped from GitHub APIs, or the results of a qualitative survey of big Java shops, or … something?<p>Instead what we got was a reposting of a few surface level stats pulled from other blog posts which have tolled the death of Java (or C++ or whatever) ad nauseum.<p>It’s as if the author started with a narrative and went searching for the line plots to justify it.<p>To be clear I don’t doubt the growth of Java amongst new learners is slowing down. Partly perhaps due to an image problem relative to other new languages, but likely also due to having somewhat saturated its “total addressable market” and not repositioning itself in new “markets” in the way that, say python has done.<p>But it’s still a great language for many categories of problem (e.g. high throughput live service) and has rich ecosystem. Build what you like with whatever tool is good for the job. Stop using bad stats to motivate your recent learning choices and just go build stuff :-)
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pulse7超过 2 年前
Kotlin may be growing on GitHub, BUT Java has the &quot;late-mover advantage&quot;: it will incorporate all good ideas from Kotlin &amp; others into the language and it will skip on all failed ideas (like async&#x2F;await, etc.). So the Kotlin advantage is shrinking - just like it happened with Groovy and others. The Java ecosystem is huge - you have libraries for just anything. And it is similar to Raspberry Pi vs other competitors: RPI has ecosystem, others are much smaller.
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AndyPa32超过 2 年前
I started Java in 1999. And I have heard these type of stories ever since. If Java is dying, then it&#x27;s a really long process of dying.<p>Java is dying in the sense that Beteigeuze is going supernova. Some day it will happen, but it may not be in my lifetime.
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jstx1超过 2 年前
It&#x27;s in relative decline i.e. it&#x27;s growing but not as quickly as other languages. It would be surprising if this wasn&#x27;t the case because you can&#x27;t expect a 25-year old language with wide enterprise adoption to grow at the same rate as the newer cooler languages. The text of the article acknowledges this of course.
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exabrial超过 2 年前
I really enjoy Java: static typing, near-cpp execution speed, and a very mature set of build tools.<p>…And an emphasis on long term stability. The ecosystem seems to understand this. If you’re building things that will last over a year, use Java.
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lp4vn超过 2 年前
Java is not a perfect language, but for what it proposes to be, a statically typed object-oriented language for building complex systems, it gets 90% right. The platform and the frameworks available for the java ecosystem are unmatched, in my opinion java is a kind of benchmark for the other languages and platforms.<p>At this point it&#x27;s almost a meme to say that the hyped language of the moment is killing the established players based on normally weak and disputable claims. Anyone who has been around long enough heard this many, many times for all new language in the block. I have no idea if people will be starting new projects in 10 years with kotlin, but I&#x27;m sure the will with java.
mattbee超过 2 年前
Data from _Github_ is making this argument? Java is surely embedded in the kinds of enterprises that would never share a line of code publicly. I can believe Java is &quot;in decline&quot; for new open source projects, but that&#x27;s not the same thing as being &quot;in decline&quot; among working programmers.
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traceroute66超过 2 年前
My view is that Java was a product of its time. Absolutely fabulous for the 90&#x27;s and 00&#x27;s, no question whatsoever about that. But today you would be nuts to use Java instead of Go (or Rust if you need the low-level).<p>Go has a solid stdlib. Go can cross-compile and provide single-binary distribution.<p>Go doesn&#x27;t have and client-side JVM dependency nonsense. Literally just ship the compiled Go binary for your app, everything is &quot;batteries included&quot; for the user. Doesn&#x27;t matter if you&#x27;re writing a simple CLI tool or a server.<p>I even don&#x27;t write shell scripts any more, I write in Go and ship the binaries. It&#x27;s cleaner and more robust to code and it&#x27;s easier to deploy because of zero dependencies.
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RcouF1uZ4gsC超过 2 年前
I am not sure I believe it. Java is used by massive amounts of developers happily writing enterprise code and then not bothering with what we would consider the programming community. I would guess that upwards of 90% of all the IT outsourcing programmers are using Java and most of them are not taking online surveys.
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nigamanth超过 2 年前
Programming languages will evolve and grow, it&#x27;s destined to change. No language can stay on top forever.<p>Java had a good run being one of the fastest rising languages in the late 90s, and it&#x27;s still not ever yet - some of the biggest applications still use Java to this day. I have a feeling that Kotlin and GoLang are going to be some of the fastest growing languages of this decade, though.<p>It&#x27;s my new year&#x27;s resolution to learn Kotlin and GoLang, just incase they explode like Python has.
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pulse7超过 2 年前
Meanwhile JavaScript ecosystem and IDE&#x27;s became so complicated (Note.js &amp; IDE installation &amp; configuration) that I can say Java is easier in this regard...
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idoubtit超过 2 年前
I don&#x27;t care about Java, I don&#x27;t care much about its decline, but I do care about a good analysis. Unfortunately, I thought this article was quite shallow, despite its claims it is backed by data.<p>First of all, what do these various metrics account for? The article mostly states its about &quot;popularity&quot;, without defining it. I suspect the definition vary with the source. And when it&#x27;s a relative popularity, it should be dealt with care, since a lower rank may be just marginally significative if the competitors are at the same level.<p>Then, what do all those popularity trends in public websites show about the languages trends in companies? The article implicitly suppose they are the same, or at least are related, but that&#x27;s far from obvious. For instance, a few years ago Python became the de facto language for teaching programmation in many countries, and I suppose that explains its boom in StackOverflow (4% to 16% in 8 years)... but was there the same boom in the professional world?<p>I also think the comparison to Kotlin is very shallow. It&#x27;s not easy to compare trends between an old and widespread language and a much younger and rare language. In the same way the author claims that Kotlin is on its way to replace Java, I could claim that Python will get replaced by Nim. The data is there: Python&#x27;s popularity is stagnating, while Nim&#x27;s had a huge grow. But that would be absurd, since they are not in the same category.<p>Most of all, what does a decline mean? Since the introduction claimed there was a 70% increase in the number of developers over the last 3 years, the usage of Java could increase by 20% while its global share goes down. Would that count as a decline?
oytis超过 2 年前
I was more interested in the number of software engineers having almost doubled in three years. Did that really happen? Is there any explanation for that?
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christophilus超过 2 年前
From afar, modern Java seems like a decent language, and the JVM is truly a marvel. I love the new green threads and native compilation. I just don’t love touching anything associated with litigation-happy Oracle, so I’ll probably continue to observe from afar.
agumonkey超过 2 年前
May this data lagging ? Since Oracle has been throwing a lot of updates and willing to make the language a lot more ergonomic it will probably improve stats in the coming years.
Reason077超过 2 年前
Java may not be a fashionable language for new greenfield projects and hot startups now days, but a huge chunk of the world&#x27;s existing infrastructure runs on it. All that software needs ongoing maintenance, extensions, improvements. So, as a career choice, Java is going to be safe for decades to come. Heck, it&#x27;s 2023 and there&#x27;s still plenty of lucrative jobs for COBOL developers. Java will still be a good skill to have in, say, 2050.
cbeach超过 2 年前
After a decade working with Java, I moved onto Scala and rekindled my love of coding.<p>Looking back at the verbosity of the language and the horror of Enterprise Java frameworks, I would never go back to Java.<p>Everyone currently coding in Java should look into alternative JVM languages like Scala (or Kotlin, although it’s not as expressive).
smitty1e超过 2 年前
I was just pulling down some .jar files to run some cloud services locally.<p>Java may be in decline, but its scalability is still why it rules the enterprise roost.<p>Whether that is intrinsic to the language, or a reflection of engineering practices that surround Java is an interesting question.
SquidJack超过 2 年前
As an android dev i assure the data is real from 2019 most of Java Android app base has been shifted to kotlin because they have good Developer experience with low code more functionality comparing Java, only spring Dev&#x27;s are now using Java
sgammon超过 2 年前
&gt; In 2022, Kotlin (a language seemingly designed to replace Java)<p>Kotlin was not at all designed to replace java, anymore than typescript was designed to replace javascript
iidonkdo超过 2 年前
Netcraft confirms it?
albertopv超过 2 年前
At my jobs we have millions of java LoC, none on github
hjgjhyuhy超过 2 年前
Java still very much rules in enterprise software. At least in my country it’s easily the most employable language simply for that reason.
vb-8448超过 2 年前
Well, probably it&#x27;s true that java is in decline but i pretty sure it will take the COBOL path: it will take half a century!
k__超过 2 年前
Since Python fixed its v2&#x2F;v3 issue, things seem to go well for it.
uraura超过 2 年前
Do they count on private repositories? I don&#x27;t care how many open source todo list projects. I care what languages companies use.
aceon48超过 2 年前
Java is the reason I dropped my CS major. Python brought me back to programming
de6u99er超过 2 年前
Again?
tinus_hn超过 2 年前
I don’t know and don’t care enough to see if it is actually real but it appears as if there is a big licensing problem with Java that makes me not want to touch it with a ten feet pole.
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orobinson超过 2 年前
I’ve been working almost exclusively with JVM languages for 6 years but have probably written less than 1000 lines of Java in that time. Almost all my work has been in Kotlin and Scala.<p>Given the clear pattern of Java decline and Kotlin growth combined with the near seamless interoperability between Java and Kotlin, I expect Kotlin will slowly but surely take over during the next 10 years.
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