The Critics Rave... for Microsoft?

If I remember the numbers, leading up to the WP7 launch, MS dropped roughly 100 million on marketing. They sold less than 100,000 units on launch week. Whatever the exact numbers, I remember someone pointing out it would have been more cost effective to give the phones away for the launch.<p>It's still that way today. They have no mindshare of the public at large, nor the developers, nor the carriers, nor the handset makers. Somehow, you have to make a product compelling to one of these. iOS is compelling for 2 of the 4 and Android is compelling for all 4. WP7 is compelling to zero of the 4.<p>For example, they have to fix the native C++ development option. This is especially important for games. Whether or not C# is nice, thanks to only being in C#, every development for that platform becomes a full-on port. If you design your code right for iOS and Android, you can use mostly the same code for both, and just a few glue points for the rest, AND you can develop for both on the Mac instead of having to fire up Windows just for that platform.<p>The 3rd party development option is so abysmal that Microsoft has been paying for apps to be ported to this platform for two years now. This situation is not sustainable by any measure.<p>At this point Microsoft is 4 years behind Apple and Google. No one cares if something is arguably better. That's the Zune. That's the Mac in the 90s. Microsoft has to do something that's _compellingly_ better, to someone, somewhere, on some basis that makes money.

I know this is a damned if you do, damned if you don't attitude, but I think this is bad news for Microsoft.<p>Microsoft lives in an echo chamber. The last thing they need is a product people say is good, but that doesn't sell. This is going to stall them and they are going to wait for the sales to catch up to the hype - which in their mind it absolutely must/will. And when it doesn't, rather than acknowledge just how bad their brand is or how late to market they continue to be, they'll look at the outside world for what went wrong (it couldn't be them, people loved their products!).

This is good news for Microsoft, and I really do hope they do well, but there's still a mountain to climb: tech reviewers are not the same as normal consumers and impressing them for the limited period of time it takes to write a review does not necessarily translate onto having a successful product. Here are a few challenges Microsoft still face:<p>1. Getting the mobile networks to take handsets running Windows Phone.<p>2. Training handset retailers on this new platform and promoting it enough to ensure that these handsets are actively sold to consumers.<p>3. Their advertising and PR must not be lame, like Microsoft advertising sometimes is.<p>4. The UX must be consistently slick enough over a long period of time that word of mouth among non-technical people really takes hold and the phone moves beyond the early adopter segment of the market. Phones must run for several days without a reboot. Calls must not be dropped because of crashes. UI Lockups or moments where the slick facade falls away to reveal clunky technical menus are a big no no. And the inevitable bugs must be fixed and rolled out in a timely and seamless mannor. Otherwise, when Bob from accounts notices you have a Windows Phone and asks "what's it like?" he'll sense the hesitation in your voice and choose the iPhone.<p>5. If things start to work out, the team will need top level executive cover to prevent in-fighting or politics from ripping the team appart or forcing an unwanted technical strategy tax (think "Windows Phone - Bing/Azure/Office Edition") from destroying the product.<p>6. Microsoft need to make money from these things, otherwise the project will be shelved and resourced diverted to MS Office 2020.

Microsoft won't win with WP7 until they make it in their partners interests for it to win. Google did that by giving them a say in how the operating system looked and worked and a cut of revenue from apps.<p>Microsoft made a nice OS but there is just no reason for either the carriers or the manufacturers to want this OS to win. Right now it is a nice option to have around to keep Google honest and that's about as far as MS partners will go to promote it. Beyond that, WP7's success is a net loss for everyone except MS with no compensating upside. Microsoft has to figure out an equation that wins for everyone like Google did, and then we'll see things happen.

If they want to succeed:<p>1) Distance themselves from the "Windows" branding (like they did with the XBox) -- as most people just upon hearing "Windows" won't even wait for the "phone" part and will automatically associate it with a negative connotation, whether warranted or not, with the desktop OS and Windows Mobile.<p>2) First impressions are the most important, and while people might actually like it if they were <i>forced</i> to use/try it for a few days the most crucial thing is it appeals to the consumer during the first few mins in the store. Every time I've watched someone at the store play with a WP7 they just immediately move on to the more "glossier" home screens of iPhone/Android. If it requires them to add embellishments to the home screen for the sake of sales despite violating a Metro design principle then that's what needs to be done. You have to give people what they like/want and not be stubborn about sticking to certain principles and/or give options in addition to Metro if you're struggling and about to go down in flames.<p>3) Treat developers better. Right now there's so much uncertainty in the WP7 development ecosystem wrt Silverlight and XAML/C#. Personally I'm at stalemate on the platform as I don't know if it's a waste of time to focus on XAML/C# if Silverlight/WPF is going to die, and whether all of that is going to be replaced with HTML/JS and/or WinRT/C++. Maybe after a year or two the dust will settle and the messaging for what to use for development will become clearer. But that's a significant time of lost opportunity to market share as developers will just stick to Objective-C for iPhone or Java for Android to avoid wasting time throwing away XAML/C# code for later HTML/JS, WINRT/C++, etc...

I actually Microsoft UI's have been good if not the best for usability in terms of accomplishing a task over time.<p>MS' main problem has been the "ugly on first blush" problem and even then, their interfaces have been ugly in the way an American cars, a twelve year old boy's toy hero or a supermarket tabloid are ugly. They've been flashy. lowest common denominators items that work perfectly for their intended purposes.

Having played with it a bit, I would say that I enjoy the using the interface and the OS has potential. They definitely need better ways to highlight or identify elements with contextual menus. It's a guessing game at the moment, at least for me.<p>Really, my biggest gripe is the lack of apps that meet the same levels of functionality as their Android/iOS counterparts. I feel like the stock Twitter app is terrible and none of the other Twitter apps are as good as the top 5-6 on the other platforms. The same goes for Facebook. That comprises a large percentage of my usage outside of built-in functionality.<p>I will say though, I dig the People hub for managing all of the contact information. The social networking built in is good for at-a-glance usage but wouldn't replace a dedicated client for me.

This is interesting, I feel like I'm starting to detect a pattern. It seems like every time Microsoft makes a product that is generally accepted to be <i>good</i>, they start spreading some of the team behind that product around the company as a way to try and infuse the rest of the machine with some of the new magic juice.<p>It makes sense, but I've never really heard of it being done much in the past.

Critics have strange biases. See Scoble's review of the Palm Pre for an amusing historical example.<p><a href="http://scobleizer.com/2009/01/08/palm-did-what-nokia-rim-and-microsoft-couldnt-build-a-better-experience-than-apple/" rel="nofollow">http://scobleizer.com/2009/01/08/palm-did-what-nokia-rim-and...</a>

Both Android and iOS devices have a large ecosystem of apps and services that users can access from day 1. This may seem small, but I feel that this is the number one reasons why a normal consumer is drawn toward these more popular options. Is Windows Phone going to have a sexy app store with immense games and productivity apps? Maybe eventually, but if Mocrosoft can't attract consumers, they will continue to struggle with attracting developers. Microsoft may have made a great mobile OS, but without the cloud backbone, they will remain uncompetitive.

I really want to see Microsoft be successful with this. I was due for a phone upgrade months ago but I'm personally waiting for Sprint to release a new WP7. I really love the phone.<p>I also thought it was interesting that I recently had a neighbor get his first smart phone ever and he chose a WP7 and he loves it. He made the choice on his own (no other nerds were consulted) which I think is a good sign.

The new Nokia handsets carrying Windows Mobile 7.5 are nothing short of spectacular! I LOVE mine and it has quickly replaced iPhone and Android handset for me.<p>I can't wait for Windows 8 and mobile integration myself and feel that picking up some MSFT stock might be very wise for the coming years.

Too bad the marketing just isn't quite "I have to have one" yet. The Nokia Lumia seems slick... but have you seen the pop-up Nokia booths in the malls? They haven't got a bloody clue. The phones are tethered to a FAT security device...

Could be an intersting year for Win Phones. Nokia has signed up with ST-Ericsson to produce low cost chips, and Appollo (WP8) should be released Q3. I suspect Christmas 2012 will be a much more attractive WP offerings across all price points. Is it too late? I don't think so the oppurtunity for growth in the smartphone market is still huge. Will Nokia try and replace all feature phones with WP8? If Nokia is still capable of pumping out a million phones a day, then things could change fairly quickly. MS &#38; Nokia need to get some momentum rolling this year though.

<i>Facebook and Twitter are wired into Windows Phone</i><p>Is this truly the case or are these apps just leveraging developer APIs? The former would make Windows Phone an automatic never for me.