We are all familiar with the layoffs in the tech sector. Will the people who have been laid off eventually have to find other avenues for employment in sectors of the economy where hiring is still strong?
No, "learn to code" is now "learn to read".<p>Long ago, people could get work as a scribe or scrivener -- knowing how to read and write was, on its own, enough to get you a job. As literacy became more prevalent, it wasn't enough to "just read". You had to "read and ____". Similar to business; I would not recommend someone get "just a business degree" so they can apply to any company in the world. I'd recommend they get a "business degree and ____" to target a specific industry or role.<p>The same is slowly happening with programming. As the spectrum of what "programming" means continues to widen, and as code-literacy becomes more and more common, it's going to be harder to get a job as "just a programmer". So learn to code, And.
Trades are a great idea.<p>... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-shortage.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho...</a>), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation.<p>The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broadly speaking, the ones working on individual vehicles and taxi services, not the ones working on self-driving trucks. That sector is still going strong because the value proposition is simple and obvious (lives saved and money saved per mile).
Former CDL-A driver here. I fell for the truck driving meme back in 09 when the economy shat the bed, I thought it would be a relatively easy way to earn 50 to 60k per year without any college degree. I was for the most part wrong. The companies lie to get you in the drivers seat, lied about CPM, lied about sign on bonuses and hometime. When it was all said and done i was making roughly $200 more per week driving a truck than i was working retail at walmart, and at least i got to go home and sleep in my own bed.
Are these two points basically true?<p>> As time goes on, businesses are continuing to rely on more software, not less software.<p>> AI tools are very fascinating, but are nowhere near ready to replace most programmers for most tasks.<p>If those points are true enough, developers as a group aren't going away, though some individuals might choose a different path.
If anything I think those being laid off right now will be sought after in areas that want tech sector quality but have not been able pay tech sector wages. Government jobs, education, nonprofits, all have lots of openings right now.
The recent layoffs are part of a business cycle that we're currently going through. Sooner or later the pendulum will swing the other way and tech companies will be hiring for high growth rate again. I guess this is the first experience of a business cycle for a lot of people in the tech sector, hence the collective "surprised Pikachu face" as the kids would say.
Learn to X is always the dumpest way to go about fixing labor shortages. I don't want to know how many 2X year olds will burn out coding just because they actually loath it. If the pay goes down there will be an exodus.
my sister drives a big rig, and my nephew use to do it. Not only is it an extremely cyclical industry, its not for everyone. you have less social life and spend more time sitting than a coder.<p>One port change can cause truck routes to disappear. also simple routes will probably be replaced by self driving rigs in the future. I would highly not recommend lots of people jumping into that.<p>however, if this tech rekt lasts, I imagine people will be flocking to the next big thing until that crashes too. its like bulls on ice
This is a deeply flawed premise. Tech sector grew headcount by like 100% over a couple years, and then did layoffs of 5-10%. They still have massively more employees today than they did pre-covid.<p>People are significantly overreacting to the current layoffs and ignoring all the massive hiring spree of the last 3 years. If you hire 100 people and then layoff 8, the narrative shouldn't be that the end is nigh.
The current state of the economy is not the permanent state of the economy. Many tech workers will see new opportunities, though not necessarily soon enough to stave off real hardships.<p>That being the case, there is no harm in learning another way to make a living. Having a fallback is always a good idea. If it becomes the main thing because your first career never came back, count yourself lucky and go with it.
Truck driving is frictional. The management that screwed up something as obvious and profitable as railroads created a frictional desire for diesel trucking to work around their mistakes.<p>Likewise, strangely, coding is also frictional. The business people who could "write their own code in COBOL" or "write their entire business in excel spreadsheets" would already be programmers if they could program which they can't so they don't AND management will not be up to the task of deploying profitable AI, so coders also have guaranteed work.<p>To some extent, labor only exists via mismanagement of capital. Humans CLEARLY aren't capable of properly managing a rail logistical infrastructure, so truck drivers have permanent employment. I would theorize that humans aren't capable of deploying AI generated programs, we've barely been able to deploy code written by competent humans, so coders should have permanent employment.
In the sense that people looking for a new career will move towards non-tech paths instead - hell no. These layoffs are minor.<p>I think the opposite will become increasingly true: folks that otherwise would <i>not</i> be found in a computer science/engineering undergraduate will find their way to tech.<p>Software/Tech is incredibly wide and deep. There's need all over the stack, and there is definitely lots of need at the medium-skill level. I spend a lot of time configuring AWS, and running simple db queries. Look at the heaps of programmers who are economically successful in a single framework like React.<p>I think the field will stratify and there's lots of room in the 50-80k/y range doing useful tech work for businesses in every sector. I can see it in FAANG where there's a clear distinction between those destined for Staff level and invent new things, and those who will plateau at SDE2 but do so much necessary work.
It seems that programming on any heavily used platforms will eventually come down to quality and price.
I have seen that when the bosses see that the quality of the software can be managed at a lower level (quality being lower) then the software jobs will go to the lowest price.
With remote working now stable and accepted, the software jobs will go to a job market that is cheaper.
Also when you factor in tools that are able to create software for users by users just describing what they want and the users can update the requirements themselves, software jobs will evaporate quickly.
Writing software will go by the wayside as a career. There will always be exceptions like, platforms that are not as popular, hardware software, specialty
software, etc.
Time now to start thinking about security in your job and learning skills that will keep a paycheck coming in.
Layoffs in the tech sector are happening now, but won't be happening forever. The world is relying on more software, not less. Understanding programming will still be valuable in the future.<p>Also, just a note on the specific comparison: it's a lot easier to learn to code in one's spare time than to learn to drive a big rig. Learning to code is free, and can remain free until you ship your first product. The same is not true for most other career choices.
Nope.<p>I know I'm not the only one here who didn't enter tech immediately after college. Once upon a time I was an electrician. I've done framing, roofing, general farm work, I was a pharmacy technician and ran a photo processing lab. My hobbies today include things like machining.<p>The "problem" in tech isn't so much the availability of jobs, but the relative income. There's nothing I've found that I could do that would replace my income in a reasonable time frame. If I left tech I'd be looking at a >50% reduction in income.
Honestly as a senior engineer at a FAANG like startup, coding is but a small part. Most of my week is split across<p>- coding<p>- architecting systems (if we're in the design phase of a project)<p>- writing design documentation<p>- researching business requirements (basically understanding the domain i'm working in)<p>- getting cross org support for my work and meeting stake holders<p>So yeah for most tech roles nowadays, learn to code is the equivalent of learn to send an email. I think the days are numbered for developers who just want a bunch of Jira tickets given to them and be left alone.
What exactly are the equivalencies between coding and driving a truck - is it supposed to relate an industry potentially ripe for automation or just an "expected" service many people rely on?<p>I find this all hilarious because just like 5 years ago so many were quoting Bill Gates saying "programming knowledge will be the literacy of the 21st century" and it depends. If people are all so genuinely interested in tech and coding in the first place what's the problem?
I think it's probably inevitable that software development becomes another trade, or at least becomes less of a career hack — a fairly simple way to make an outsized amount of money given the rareness of the skill required. I don't know about the timeline for this happening, but I think it has to happen sooner or later.<p>I think it would be a mistake to switch to trucking right now, as despite delays with no end in sight, it does feel like some substantial use of automated driving in the commercial driving industry is coming <i>eventually</i>. I would expect that to reduce the market value of drivers. If someone wanted to become a truck driver, I'd say he'd better do it for the love rather than the money. Even though both careers are going to get shaken up, it's still a lot easier to make six figures in software for now.<p>In general, I roll my eyes when politicians suggest that people who lose their jobs due to industries shifting out from under them can just go learn new skills and get back on track. I haven't seen that happen. It feels like a pat on the back as you're shoving them out the door.