Isn't part of the problem here that bureaucrats measure and define their own metrics. They have every incentive to report that their policies are effective.<p>There are also malign incentives around Cantillon effects and central planning generally.<p>An incumbent will celebrate economic performance under his reign. He can freely cherry pick flattering statistics and his supporters will repeat the same. The state of the economy is immaterial.<p>Opposition politicians will claim that the incumbent's central planning policies are to blame. When in office the roles reverse. Even if the opposition gives lip service to laissez-faire policies, <i>special</i> <i>circumstances</i> requiring central planning always seem to emerge. Opponents of laissez-faire cite this behavior as proof of debunking.<p>Regardless of who is in charge, the Fed chair will pick a number and price fix the rate of interest. Partisans squabble. Court economists rationalize. Somewhere beyond this charade economic production happens.