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The tech downturn seen through Hacker News comments

238 点作者 rinze大约 2 年前

26 条评论

monero-xmr大约 2 年前
We have an expected attrition rate at my company across all departments. We normally lose about 10 people per quarter. This quarter the number of people leaving - zero.
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EarthIsHome大约 2 年前
It would be interesting to see the results of your script running on the &quot;Who <i>wants</i> to be hired?&quot; threads [0].<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=34983765" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=34983765</a>
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elif大约 2 年前
I wonder if it correlates with a &#x2F;general&#x2F; loss of traffic. Personally I find the comments section to be less accepting of more classes of opinions each year.
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myth_drannon大约 2 年前
HNTrends has data all the way from 2019. Last months have been the lowest ever. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.hntrends.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;november.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.hntrends.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;november.html</a>
totetsu大约 2 年前
Is this downturn affecting all regions at the moment or mostly just USA? I wonder how the overall HN comments are trending.. More people with free time to waste on HN or less people with a reason to slack off and waste time on HN..
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Seb-C大约 2 年前
Why does the data starts in 2021? Comparing with the situation before the pandemic is essential to make any conclusion...<p>EDIT: The second link provides more insights: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;rinzewind.org&#x2F;blog-en&#x2F;2021&#x2F;percentage-of-hacker-news-job-postings-that-mention-a-remote-option.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;rinzewind.org&#x2F;blog-en&#x2F;2021&#x2F;percentage-of-hacker-news...</a><p>Most likely, there is just nothing to see, we are still in the process of being back to normal from the pandemic bubble.<p>This chart paints a very dishonest picture.
bfung大约 2 年前
Hey OP, I did something similar ~3 months ago you may find useful.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=33773972" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=33773972</a><p>Feel free to use the historical data, I haven’t had time to update for Jan and Feb 2023!
UncleOxidant大约 2 年前
Presumably the right-most data point is from yesterday (3&#x2F;1&#x2F;23). Isn&#x27;t there a potential flaw here in regards to that most recent data point? Whereas in previous months people had all month to post jobs to the monthly job posting thread, there has only been one day since the 3&#x2F;1&#x2F;23 job post thread was started. I think this script should be run on the last day of the month, not the first.
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ohadron大约 2 年前
Interesting. A few followup thoughts:<p>- Can you share this analysis across a longer time span?<p>- Maybe there&#x27;s a way to normalize it to general activity on HN? It probably hasn&#x27;t gone down, but it would be cleaner to do that.
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newbie578大约 2 年前
That&#x27;s a nice way to visualize it. To me the best way to check the market conditions is to check your LinkedIn inbox.<p>The number of recrutiers spamming with job offers has gone way down. I even had a situation where the recruiter who was supposed to hire me, got laid off during my final interview alongiside a big chunk of the company...
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hn8305823大约 2 年前
I&#x27;d love to see a study of trends of generic positive&#x2F;negative words used across all HN article comments. That might be revealing of the &quot;state of tech&quot;, though not necessarily specific to employment.
marginalia_nu大约 2 年前
It&#x27;s peculiar how the remote jobs graph follows the total graph so closely? Wouldn&#x27;t you expect to see more noise?
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yourapostasy大约 2 年前
This trues up with what I&#x27;m anecdotally seeing in my clients. RTO-3 days or even RTO-5 days is being pushed aggressively in some of them, and the general feeling amongst their rank and file is it is a stealth layoff (no severance for those leaving due to the policy switch is a big financial incentive for the companies). A big challenge I&#x27;m not seeing really addressed though is <i>a lot</i> of staff at my clients stepped up big time to do more with less during the pandemic and put in more than full time hours, reasoning that they&#x27;ll just work during what normally would have been their commute time. That slack their companies enjoyed is now being yanked out of the ecosystem as many simply don&#x27;t have more to give once they start commuting again. Quite a few put in even put in way more.<p>I saw this organically happen both pre- and post-pandemic. Pre-pandemic, it was rare if a Slack or email I sent to client staff was answered off hours. During the latter half of the pandemic and post-pandemic with those in WFH situations, it became much more common as staff learned to communicate all the time during brief idling periods while going about their off hours days and evenings. I&#x27;m going to miss this low-latency communication, but it is what it is.<p>If this is an actual secular trend instead of mere n=1 anecdata, then it will stack on the demographic trend baked in of ever-fewer workers for the next 20-odd years (assuming there is a baby boom in the next 3-4 years, which by current family and household formation statistical trends is still looking unlikely).
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71a54xd大约 2 年前
Yep, it&#x27;s not good. Been unemployed for about a month and the market is completely flooded. Either I&#x27;m not senior enough or I just suck - feelsbadman.
haskellandchill大约 2 年前
I did some application tests recently. I don&#x27;t think I can even get an interview right now. Maybe if I tried python&#x2F;node&#x2F;javascript&#x2F;ruby I could, but typed languages are tight competition for not many offerings.<p>Update: Actually just got an interview so it&#x27;s not so so bad.
jatins大约 2 年前
Almost a 70% decline since peak. Looks worse than I anticipated
culopatin大约 2 年前
Could it be that people don’t get much traction out of those posts and even if they have positions open they just don’t come back to post it there?
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msoad大约 2 年前
I am defiantly feeling it from the number of recruiters emailing me about various opportunities. It&#x27;s nice because I&#x27;m never interested in any of these jobs. I always find my next job through my network anyways.
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ricardobeat大约 2 年前
I wish the data would go a bit further back. Pretty sure 200-300 job posts was normal around 2017-2018, with the industry doing just fine. The 1000 jobs per post in 2021 were an abnormality.
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soneca大约 2 年前
Script was probably run too early to be comparable to older posts, right? March Who is hiring thread is now close to 500 total comments (guessing around 20 of those are not job posts?)
eljimmy大约 2 年前
Would be more interesting to include the numbers prior to the pandemic (which had an abnormal surge in hiring).
prh8大约 2 年前
I&#x27;m curious to see a chart of the &quot;who wants to be hired&quot; threads
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reportgunner大约 2 年前
Do we really need a blog post to say &quot;Number go down&quot; ?
dirtybirdnj大约 2 年前
There&#x27;s dozens of us!
topherpalmtree大约 2 年前
What tech downturn?
29athrowaway大约 2 年前
Leftconomics at work.
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