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Cargo cult science (1974)

174 点作者 sherilm大约 2 年前

16 条评论

weberer大约 2 年前
&gt;I say that’s also important in giving certain types of government advice. Supposing a senator asked you for advice about whether drilling a hole should be done in his state; and you decide it would he better in some other state. If you don’t publish such a result, it seems to me you’re not giving scientific advice. You’re being used. If your answer happens to come out in the direction the government or the politicians like, they can use it as an argument in their favor; if it comes out the other way, they don’t publish it at all. That’s not giving scientific advice.<p>We saw this just recently when the EU tried to hide a study that showed piracy actually increased game sales. I wonder what other studies are being suppressed because they don&#x27;t fit the narrative.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ghacks.net&#x2F;2017&#x2F;09&#x2F;22&#x2F;inconvenient-eu-piracy-study-kept-hidden-for-years&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ghacks.net&#x2F;2017&#x2F;09&#x2F;22&#x2F;inconvenient-eu-piracy-stu...</a>
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photochemsyn大约 2 年前
Claiming that new drugs with exclusive patents are always more effective than out-of-patent drugs is another cargo cult theme promoted in many highly corporatized biomedical research centers.<p>Demonstrating that the drug discovered by your colleagues down the hall (who are pushing for their little startup biotech outfit to be acquired by Pfizer or Merck or Gilead, in an effort backed by the institution&#x27;s IP office and administration) is less effective for a given condition than a drug discovered 50 years ago would be considered impolite, and would lessen your chances of getting tenure and having a successful career.<p>For example, molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir (aka Paxlovid), heavily promoted for COVID treatment, may be no more effective than older out-of-patent anti-histamine drugs:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pmc&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC9903129&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pmc&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC9903129&#x2F;</a><p>&gt; &quot;Since antihistamines seems to hold a crucial prognostic role in the management of Covid‐19, there is a need to identify and repurpose some potential antihistamine drugs. One study suggested diphenhydramine, hydroxyzine, and azelastine to be considered in repositioning, then further research in them. 17 Due to its potent, less side effects, rapid onset of action, specificity, antiallergic, and anti‐inflammatory properties, 24 Cetirizine might be an important drug of consideration in managing Covid‐19 patients at the moment compared to other antihistamines or histamine receptors (H2, H3, and H4).&quot;<p>Corporatization and the profit motive have an undeniably corrupting effect on scientific integrity, that&#x27;s clear enough.
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hinkley大约 2 年前
Sabine Hossenfelder basically posted a rant about particle physicists on Youtube last week, about how they are doing science wrong.<p>Basically she said you are supposed to change your theory based upon results that don&#x27;t match the theory, and what they have been doing for decades is looking at gaps in the results, and imagining particle theories that don&#x27;t alter the expected results in the currently explored energy levels, just in the unexplored ones. Then when people get funding to look into these frontiers&#x2F;gaps, and find that everything looks the same, they adjust their theories to push them out into the gaps.<p>That&#x27;s not Science, she emphatically states.<p>For myself it sounds like saying, &quot;well you don&#x27;t know Unicorns don&#x27;t exist because we haven&#x27;t looked everywhere, what if they&#x27;re in &lt;unexplored forests in the Congo&gt;?&quot; Then the Congo gets explored and they say, &quot;well maybe they&#x27;re in Antarctica&quot;.
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superkuh大约 2 年前
You see this constantly in information technology contexts as well. People who at work, when required to work with many other people on the same project which itself is of a larger scale, then bring kubernetes style containers and ideas about &quot;deployment&quot; home to their personal webserver. And this would be fine, silly, recreation if only they didn&#x27;t write up articles on &quot;How to host from home&quot; that described their k8&#x2F;etc&#x2F;etc setup like it was required in this new context.<p>Basically any time you see the word &quot;deployal&quot; outside of a business or institutional IT context you&#x27;re looking at cargo cult behavior.
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bjornsing大约 2 年前
I find myself thinking of this speech more and more often. It seems to apply to more and more of society, as I see it. The scariest versions I’ve personally come across is Cargo Cult Medicine and Cargo Cult Courts…
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poszlem大约 2 年前
In my opinion, we have deviated from the true essence of &quot;Science&quot; by using it to determine &quot;what ought to be&quot; instead of focusing on answering the fundamental question of &quot;what is.&quot;<p>I know that this is not particularly in vogue now to say, but social sciences especially did a whole lot to discredit the idea of science being something that is objective. They pretend to &quot;do science&quot; but instead use it to either &quot;Launder Ideas&quot; (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;idea-laundering-in-academia-11574634492" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;idea-laundering-in-academia-115...</a>) or pure activism (for example, a paper published in Hipatia suggested that male students should be trained to propagate the feminist message, much like the way viruses spread <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;315583936_Women&#x27;s_Studies_as_Virus_Institutional_Feminism_Affect_and_the_Projection_of_Danger)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;315583936_Women&#x27;s_S...</a>.<p>Not even going to mention the Grievance studies affair.<p>I have embraced accelerationism and hope that &quot;science&quot; (and academia specifically) fails quickly so that it can rise again with greater resilience and the ability to withstand pressure from activist organizations. Let&#x27;s hope the hard sciences renaissance is nigh.
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sebstefan大约 2 年前
If you stumble upon a website that makes the stylistic choice that text should take the whole width of your whole screen, you can toggle the &quot;Reader view&quot; feature in Firefox to put it back into a more usual format (F9 on Windows).<p>If you use Chrome-based browsers, there&#x27;s bookmarklets (bookmarks with a `javascript:` URI)<p><pre><code> javascript:(function(){var bod = document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;body&quot;)[0]; bod.style.margin = &quot;40px auto&quot;; bod.style.maxWidth = &quot;40vw&quot;; bod.style.lineHeight = &quot;1.6&quot;; bod.style.fontSize = &quot;18px&quot;; bod.style.color = &quot;#444&quot;; bod.style.padding = &quot;0 10px&quot;; })();</code></pre>
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ggm大约 2 年前
There&#x27;s two parts to this problem. One, is his reflections on what is unquestionably outlier belief, like reiki and reflexology and spoon bending. The other is his intense dislike of the low bar p-jacking in social sciences and the lack of rigour, even in his own field.<p>They aren&#x27;t the same thing. Labeling both of them &#x27;cargo cult&#x27; science does the problem space a disservice.<p>Bad science, belief that the proof is &#x27;in&#x27; or that low bar experiments prove things against a lack of reliable, reproducible outcomes, isn&#x27;t the same thing as the implications of funding for space from the Drake Equation, or a lack of funding for VLSI engineering research because the money went on feel-good stats about alternative medicines.<p>What happened with the Shuttle, was false belief in the hierarchy of science and a fear about speaking out. What happened in tertiary education since Feynman died is that peer review has decayed into a game to tenure, and has nothing to do with the real outcome of why scientists exist.<p>During his lifetime in nuclear physics, it was normal for scientists to lodge patent applications. But that said, it wasn&#x27;t the main game on the Manhattan project and Leo Szilard used his patent rights as a lever to try and get a say in the socialized and politicized outcomes of his discoveries. Now, most scientists who work in a field with fertile IPR are really strongly driven to the IPO implications of that IPR. It&#x27;s not a tool, a lever, its the main game. Adding 5% efficiency to classic solar cells in a reproducible patent-free manner right now would be transformative for everyone. Adding 5 patents which contribute 0.1% efficiency to classic solar cells might pay back better.<p>Feynman sat to one side of that game. He lived through a time of tenure and a role in science, which nowadays would be very hard to maintain.
dang大约 2 年前
Related:<p><i>Cargo Cult Science (1974)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26563567" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26563567</a> - March 2021 (69 comments)<p><i>Cargo Cult Science (1974)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21120637" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21120637</a> - Sept 2019 (33 comments)<p><i>Cargo cult data science</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14919263" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14919263</a> - Aug 2017 (40 comments)<p><i>Cargo Cult Science (1974)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=13290107" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=13290107</a> - Dec 2016 (37 comments)<p><i>Cargo Cult Science (1974)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=11669004" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=11669004</a> - May 2016 (38 comments)<p><i>Richard Feynman: Cargo Cult Science (1974)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6543791" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6543791</a> - Oct 2013 (62 comments)<p><i>Feynman&#x27;s Cargo Cult Science</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1629571" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1629571</a> - Aug 2010 (25 comments)<p><i>Cargo Cult Science by Richard Feynman (.PDF)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=993150" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=993150</a> - Dec 2009 (4 comments)<p><i>Cargo Cult Science, by Richard Feynman (1974)</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=723140" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=723140</a> - July 2009 (17 comments)
college_physics大约 2 年前
Cargo cult tech: visit Silicon Valley, copy some striking behavioral traits not practiced in your little corner of the planet and hope that you will &quot;eat the world&quot; somehow.
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debacle大约 2 年前
Humans are innately imaginative outside of the bounds of reality. Most people I know believe in things that aren&#x27;t real, whether it be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random mythologies about random things.<p>Most interestingly, these are generally weak beliefs strongly held. You&#x27;ll never convince these people that they&#x27;ve divorced themselves from reality, and you have nearly nothing to gain from trying.<p>Psychologists, doctors, lawyers, sitting congresspeople, etc. This isn&#x27;t something that Facebook moms have a monopoly on.<p>We are really bad at recognizing our own flights of fancy (and, of course, recognizing what we&#x27;re really bad at).
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DoreenMichele大约 2 年前
<i>Another example is how to treat criminals. We obviously have made no progress—lots of theory, but no progress—in decreasing the amount of crime by the method that we use to handle criminals.</i><p>Vitamins for convicts could save taxpayers&#x27; money<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16140867" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16140867</a><p><i>All experiments in psychology...</i><p>Psychology is really hard to do well. I tend to look for real word data that casts light on a thing because psychological experiments involving humans are so often designed so very poorly.<p>For example, it was found that when women take an interest in a celebrity, they do a search for his marital or relationship status. When men take an interest in a celebrity, they do a search for nude photos of her.<p>This is people in the privacy of their own homes on their own computers looking for something to make themselves hot. They aren&#x27;t worried about what other people might expect from them, yet male and female strategies differ in ways that fit with historical norms that women are usually looking for <i>a relationship</i> and men are often just looking for <i>sex</i> (at least at first).
RobotToaster大约 2 年前
&quot;Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts&quot; - Richard Feynman
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mwbajor大约 2 年前
&quot;When they got a number closer to Millikan’s value they didn’t look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We’ve learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don’t have that kind of a disease.&quot;<p>What about dark matter?
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dennis_jeeves1大约 2 年前
Corollary :<p>When you don&#x27;t understand something, and are not inclined to take the time to understand it, you just label it as cargo cult science, or pseudoscience.
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low_tech_love大约 2 年前
His analogy of teaching resonated too much with me. I have been feeling exactly that for a couple of years, and it feels scarily like when I abandoned the belief in god many years ago. There is that nagging feeling I can’t shake that, no matter how I look at it, I can’t negate the null hypothesis that <i>organized education is basically useless</i>.<p>Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think educational institutions shouldn’t exist; surely smart people need a place to go and do things and get together and work. The point to me is that, whatever it is that smart people are doing, they’d mostly do that anyway no matter what kind of <i>education</i> they’re getting.<p>Whenever I bring it up with colleagues, I usually get into heated arguments where I become the 1 in an invariably N-to-1 aggressive debate. Plus, my wife is a primary school teacher with a Master degree in Education who loves teaching, so obviously that is a very delicate subject to bring up at home. I have noticed that people like her, who love teaching, usually have a very emotional attachment to it from their own personal experiences and how they see education as transformative, and that makes any kind of objective research on teaching become very hard to do. It’s almost like teaching is such a holy subject that any teaching <i>has</i> to be good, and criticizing it is like defending imperialism or capitalism or rich people or something like that (it doesn’t help that my wife came from a very poor background and got out of that through education practice, and has teached most of her career in poor neighborhoods; that makes a delicate subject even more touchy).<p>My personal opinion is that I am only human and seeing myself as some kind of ”savior through teaching” is unfair, to me and to others (yes, I do some teaching too). Most of the time I focus on trying to give smart students a platform to grow, and while I also try to motivate the other students as much as I can (I do believe you can ”fish” some of them out of the pool), I don’t usually pull my hair or lose sleep over them. One, because I don’t feel like I have the right to keep patronizing people as if I know what’s objectively better for them; lots of people out there are doing much better than me without formal education. Second, because I do not have the illusion that I (or most other teachers) know a really good teaching method that can make a significant difference. It would be like losing sleep because a glass of holy water that I blessed did not save a cancer patient.
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