Credit Suisse sheds nearly 25%, key backer says no more money

Isn't Credit Suisse the bank that laundered and legitimized all the money from the drug cartels? They kept getting slaps on the wrist for a bunch of atrocities and bad choices and now finally they are seeing some repercussions of those choices?

Swiss National Bank says they&#x27;ll cover CS. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.semafor.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;03&#x2F;15&#x2F;2023&#x2F;credit-suisse-banking-chaos-what-you-need-to-know" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.semafor.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;03&#x2F;15&#x2F;2023&#x2F;credit-suisse-ban...</a>

This comes after news that there were &quot;material weaknesses&quot; found in their financial reporting the last few years. They also failed to &quot;design and maintain an effective risk assessment process to identify and analyze the risk of material misstatements&quot;. Finishing it off with massive outflows of customer funds - larger than anticipated - which has &quot;exacerbated and may continue to exacerbate liquidity risk&quot;. Will they survive?<p>(source: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2023&#x2F;03&#x2F;14&#x2F;credit-suisse-finds-material-weaknesses-in-financial-reporting-says-outflows-not-yet-reversed.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2023&#x2F;03&#x2F;14&#x2F;credit-suisse-finds-material...</a>)

Any predictions on if they&#x27;ll just let this bank implode naturally?<p>I feel like we are close on the verge of a event that sets off the recession. It feels like the banking sector is going to be the fuse again.

Someone on HN mentioned yesterday that CS is being priced in at a 10% chance of failing in the CDS market. I wonder how much this increases after this news.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=35152175" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=35152175</a>

Right now you can buy the whole company for $10bn. Seems cheap. Their building on Madison square Park in NYC is probably worth a $1bn

Or, as Matt Levine put it in his most recent newsletter (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20230314194552&#x2F;https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2023-03-14&#x2F;svb-took-the-wrong-risks" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20230314194552&#x2F;https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloom...</a>): &quot;Not now Credit Suisse!&quot;<p>CS has been tethering on the brink of bankruptcy for a good while now -- interesting to see if this will finally push them over or not. The Swiss would <i>not</i> be amused for such a stalwart of the banking business to disappear, but...

I was expecting a cliff in the chart but you can’t even see it. They’ve been consistently shedding value for a year now.

The investor may just not be able to inject more legally. There are limits.

Most Swiss have written off this pile of garbage a long time ago. I also don&#x27;t think anyone would give them a bailout. Scandal after scandal, they occur so frequently you aomost expect the next one to be in tomorrow&#x27;s paper.

The problem with all these banks disappearing is that there are continuously fewer and fewer choices left. Eventually there will be a handful of megabanks and nothing else. I guess this is happening in every industry these days.

Where do these massive outflows of customer funds go? Do these customers see the risk of collapse before everybody else and move the money to another bank, or.. ?

TLDR - Credit Suisse has been a sh*t show for over a decade. This has been coming for a while.<p>Credit Suisse is in investment banking and wealth management. It does not have a significant retail presence (EDIT - outside of Switzerland). Credit Suisse has also had a number of accounting, risk management, and other scandals over the last few years. They were bailed out late last year by a fund linked with Saudi Arabia who took a ~10% stake in the company. Today, they (the Saudi fund) refused to inject more capital and the shares have collapsed.

Now it&#x27;s being bailed out and the market is rallying.<p>Nothing to see here, more of the same. We can&#x27;t seem to not bail out banks even when they&#x27;re dumb-dumbs.

My guess would be that that SNB&#x27;s backstop and liquidity assistance is a way to bail them out before the inevitable collapse. It may make the medicine go down easier, as CS&#x27;s collapse looks likely. Upon their demise, SNB can then say &quot;well, great thing we had that backstop, huh!&quot; rather than needing to find the political capital to get a bailout through.<p>Just a guess.

So the market was expecting the investor to exceed their regulator limit? That doesn&#x27;t make sense. What am I missing?

DB is next. The math is just so bad there, and has been for a decade now, that it&#x27;s inevitable.

Most of the business can&#x27;t survive without tax payers money in one way or another.

Is there anything that China&#x2F;Russia and friends can do to tip this whole thing over?

Maybe it will get recapitalized with the money confiscated from the Russian oligarchs, just like the Cypriot banks during the Eurozone Crisis.

So... move assets to Bitcoin or not?

Chance that this is just part of a campaign to short CS? What makes CS different from other major global banks?

Of course not. Why would you put in your own money when you know taxpayer will...<p>That future expectation created is part of the price paid when you bail out entities.

Something I wonder is... With $1.3 trillion assets under management, is it safe to say that Crédit Suisse&#x27;s situation has nothing to do with Bitcoin?<p>I&#x27;m asking because about 15 years after the last big financial crisis, one of the systemic bank risking default and potentially in need of a bail out reminds me of a headline from 2008:<p><i>&quot;(The Times 03&#x2F;Jan&#x2F;2009) Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks&quot;</i>