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Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

24 点作者 JVillella大约 2 年前

3 条评论

mark242大约 2 年前
Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality?<p>Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They&#x27;re all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in contention.<p>Let&#x27;s game out what it would take for 50% inflation MoM -- you&#x27;d need severe supply issues up and down for every possible good, including goods created domestically. You&#x27;d need the Fed to fire up the printing presses in a way that surpasses even 2008, which, good luck on that one. You&#x27;d need interest rates to go negative. You&#x27;d need the real estate market to do a 180 from &quot;nothing&#x27;s really selling right now&quot; to &quot;people can&#x27;t buy houses fast enough&quot;. You&#x27;d need a confluence of black swan events to happen globally in order to knock the dollar from being a reserve currency. How does that possibly happen?<p>Just dumb, all around.
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gus_massa大约 2 年前
Hyperinflation is usually defined as an increase of 50% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 150%).<p>x40 in 90 days is in increase of 240% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 340%).<p>So it&#x27;s a lot of inflation. This is not unheard, but it&#x27;s very high and usually happens in countries with bigger problems. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperinflationary_periods" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...</a><p>[Hi from Argentina, our peak was in July 1989 with 196% (i.e. from 100% to 296%), but the peak was short, we didn&#x27;t have three months with 200% of mensual inflation. See the graph in <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;es.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hiperinflaci%C3%B3n_argentina_de_1989_y_1990" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;es.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hiperinflaci%C3%B3n_argentina_...</a>]
quickthrowman大约 2 年前
How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k.<p>I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
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