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Bank failures come in waves

179 点作者 pranshum大约 2 年前

17 条评论

vishnugupta大约 2 年前
Continuing the theme of the article the current banking crisis has exposed two conflicting functions of money i.e., store of value and a vehicle of investment both of which are facilitated by banks.<p>Keeping money safe, whether physically or digitally, comes at a cost. Banks absorb this cost because they make money through credit creation, maturity transformation, and interchange fees. They even pass on some of that profit to depositors. However, each of these banking activities create risk, which is passed onto the deposit holders and is offset, to an extent, by deposit insurance. In low to zero-interest-rate scenarios, banks act as pure custodians as their revenues decline, which is why we saw EU banks charging negative interest rates, i.e., a fee, to maintain customer deposits.<p>There&#x27;s a delicate balance and an inherent conflict between keeping money safe and earning yields, the two functions performed by a commercial bank. Customers don&#x27;t perceive this conflict unless a bank breaks down as SVB did.<p>I think this crisis is the strongest yet reason to push for CBDCs as only a central bank can fully guarantee a deposit. In terms of systems design, this is a clear delineation of responsibilities.<p>CBDC: If you want safe custody of your money.<p>Bank: If you want to lend your money in return for a yield. And as with any lending, you take the risk of a borrower defaulting.
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zizee大约 2 年前
From what I understand, when someone takes out a loan, a bank doesn&#x27;t lend out depositors&#x27; money. Instead money is &quot;created&quot; by the bank (on behalf of the fed), and the bank needs to pay the fed interest. The bank also needs to pay the loan back by an agreed uppn time (which destroys the money).<p>Why can we not have a similar system for deposits? A bank takes a deposit, the fed &quot;destroys&quot; the money, but pays interest to the bank. When the depositor wants to withdraw their money, the fed&#x2F;bank recreates the money.<p>I guess this is sort of what happens with banks buying bonds from various government bodies, but the banks are managing a mix of bond maturity durations.<p>If bank runs are a worry, why not do away with this flexibility for the banks?
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yalogin大约 2 年前
When fed started raising interest rates to curb inflation, the prevalent wisdom was that the average consumer has too much money because of low rates and is spending way too much. The thought was raising rates would curb their spending and bring prices down slowly. However, it turns out the average consumer is very principled with money and is handling it very well. The rich&#x2F;corporations like banks, VCs, companies felt super rich with the raising stock and began taking on abnormal risk. This was not expected by many. It may eventually lead to the average consumer getting hurt as a repercussion of the failure at the top though. Of course even the crisis of 2008 was caused by exuberant bankers. You need to have access to lots of money to cause lots of damage.
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fedeb95大约 2 年前
Interestingly enough, the graph of bank failures looks like the ones Mandelbrot shows in his works about transmission errors if I recall correctly (can&#x27;t check right now). My conjecture is that markets encode information rather than other things like value etc. Failures are just transmission errors.
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sgsag33大约 2 年前
Why do we even need banks? If they make money by lending money that mostly belong the people (state&#x2F;feds) anyways, I guess we all would be better if banking was just a state monopol. I guess I&#x27;m just missing some points here so maybe someone can help and explain me why this is a bad idea?!
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watismymalk大约 2 年前
Doesn&#x27;t any peak separated by time with another come in waves?
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wesapien大约 2 年前
Nothing to see here, just garbage collection time. Everyone&#x27;s successful when interest are low or near zero. Degens feel naked now with the higher cost of capital from interest rates.
bubbleRefuge大约 2 年前
Pretty Simple fix. Have the fed backstop all depositors to infinity. Today there are no limits on the number of 250k FDIC insured deposits. Logically the same thing as insuring a single account to infinity.
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nathias大约 2 年前
Banking failiure is very simply a failiure of regulation because of its conflict with capital. The customers of banks give banks money as loans that have a small % of risk and have a small yield, but banks are able to take on more risk than that % and have the profit imperative to do so, so they will do it if they can.
personjerry大约 2 年前
It&#x27;s awfully easy to say this and make your analysis after the fact. But past results aren&#x27;t indicative of the future. See also: Taleb&#x27;s The Black Swan
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laserbeam大约 2 年前
That&#x27;s it?<p>Alright. What do you mean by a wave? How did any of the 3 previous bank failures collapse &quot;in waves&quot;? Based on your graphic why did the S&amp;L failure have more financial institutions fail towards the end of thr wave, but the 2008 crysis had more fail at the start?<p>The graph is beautiful but really, none of the analysis done even discusses waves, or how a bank failure can progress.<p>Finally, you make a point towards the end that SVB made a mistake and we don&#x27;t know how widespread it is... Can we look at the pretty graph to other scenarios when a bank made a mistake and was isolated?<p>I somehow felt cheated at the end of the article, as if I expected some analysis but only found surface level news. This feels like a piece that should have been 2-3x long, and could have explored how each of the previous failures evolved over time.
kderbyma大约 2 年前
perhaps....it&#x27;s because they are not independently operating.....wow!! physics has analogy for quantum particles....banks....they act independent...but they arent
unsupp0rted大约 2 年前
What’s the purported bad assumption during the current wave? That interest rates would never rise?
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kneebonian大约 2 年前
A healthy economy has ups and downs, and if you have a bigger up there needs to be a corresponding down. In 2008 we made major decisions to prevent a needed correction down, it turns out all that did was kick the can down the road, and if we kick it down the road again we&#x27;re just in for another problem.
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Lapsa大约 2 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=MHRn-WDhFO0">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=MHRn-WDhFO0</a>
zackmorris大约 2 年前
Just a friendly reminder that neither the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis nor the Silicon Valley Bank collapse should have happened:<p>The Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act of 1999 repealed the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gramm–Leach–Bliley_Act" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Gramm–Leach–Bliley_Act</a><p>The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 repealed part of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act passed in 2010:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Economic_Growth,_Regulatory_Relief,_and_Consumer_Protection_Act" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Economic_Growth,_Regulatory_Re...</a><p>Articles that only look at the numbers miss the elephant in the room, which is that policy controls economics. That&#x27;s why academics generally don&#x27;t subscribe to ideas like deregulation, at least they didn&#x27;t before the Reagan administration began chipping away at public funding for universities to rein in the rabble of hippies opposed to war&#x2F;monopoly&#x2F;neoliberalism:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;theintercept.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;08&#x2F;25&#x2F;student-loans-debt-reagan&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;theintercept.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;08&#x2F;25&#x2F;student-loans-debt-reaga...</a><p>At nearly every turn for 40+ years, our elected officials have made unpragmatic decisions. They push revisionist history and constrain debates to 2 ends of an approved axis of narratives so that people who think outside the box are demonized as fringe. Which is very not meta, and for me one of the great disappointments of the modern era, especially in how it&#x27;s bamboozled the minds of so many thought leaders in tech.<p>Is that political? These policies affect our money and work and the trajectories of our lives. Are we supposed to just not seek working solutions anymore because they don&#x27;t please the status quo? Every win for concentrated wealth is another pressure convincing people to vote against their own self-interest. Which creates the negative feedback loop we&#x27;re trapped in, where every loss is compounded by further loss, enabling polarizing candidates who sell their vote to the highest bidder to consistently win at the highest levels of government.
saenns大约 2 年前
not really. more like three bursts: great depression, 1980, 2008.
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