An interview with Steve Wozniak by Jessica Livingston cured my AI anxiety

100 点作者 vslira大约 2 年前

18 条评论

dimal大约 2 年前

This is roughly how I’m starting to think about it. This may be doomsday or it may be an amazing opportunity. I don’t know. If it’s doomsday, it doesn’t matter whether I act as if it’s doomsday or if I look for opportunities. Either way I’m fucked. But if I act as if it’s doomsday, but it’s actually an opportunity, I’ll miss all the possible opportunities that come up. So I don’t see any downside in looking at this as an opportunity. I may as well.And once I started to look at it that way, I started seeing all these potential ways to use AI to do what I do now, only better and more easily. So I’m going to keep looking for opportunities and going after them. If I’m going down, I’m going down swinging.

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zamnos大约 2 年前

> I think one of the things that really separates us from the high primates is that we’re tool builders. I read a study that measured the efficiency of locomotion for various species on the planet. The condor used the least energy to move a kilometer. And, humans came in with a rather unimpressive showing, about a third of the way down the list. It was not too proud a showing for the crown of creation. So, that didn’t look so good. But, then somebody at Scientific American had the insight to test the efficiency of locomotion for a man on a bicycle. And, a man on a bicycle, a human on a bicycle, blew the condor away, completely off the top of the charts.> And that’s what a computer is to me. What a computer is to me is it’s the most remarkable tool that we’ve ever come up with, and it’s the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds.”~ Steve JobsChatGPT is motorcycles for our minds.

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bitwize大约 2 年前

So, here's my big problem with AI: To quote Strong Bad, "I don't trust any device I can't mash Ctrl-Alt-Del on."[0] And the good bits of AI, as it exists currently, are inscrutable NN statistical models living in the cloud (i.e., someone else's computer). You pay for access, drink a verification can, submit your query, and then a miracle occurs[1], and you get your result.Today, if I want to be a programmer, I can procure all the equipment I need to do some serious programming -- for cheap! I have control over every step of the process. If creating software becomes something that you use AI to do rather than do yourself, it will require surrendering much of the process to mysterious cloud entities, like William Gibson's electronic voodoo gods floating out on the edges of cyberspace. Unless we have open-source-equivalent AI models that we can download, play with, run on our own hardware that actually give good results. I think I will wait for those to become available on hardware I actually have before faffing about with AI.[0] <a href="https://twitter.com/StrongBadActual" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/StrongBadActual</a>[1] <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Then-a-Miracle-Occurs-Copyrighted-artwork-by-Sydney-Harris-Inc-All-materials-used-with_fig2_302632920" rel="nofollow">https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Then-a-Miracle-Occurs-Co...</a>

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blueblimp大约 2 年前

The key quote:> [Wozniak] was overjoyed when he learned that the skill that put so much effort into suddenly became massively easier. He wasn't worried about not being able to earn an above-average salary from this anymore, he was happy about all the new cool things he and everyone else would be able to build.If you want to get things done, then having your skills obsoleted is good.

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jossclimb大约 2 年前

Something else that frames this conversation well is to consider the experience for a non programmer, inspecting the AI results to some query. We view this all through very adept and skilled eyes that know how to code an how to read code. Imagine you don't know anything about programming...* You don't know what a function is (or a method / class)* You don't even understand variables, static types, bools/ints/strings* You have no idea about an entry point such as main, how returns work* You have no idea about OOO, organising code over multiple files* You don't know what a socket is, you don't understand I/O, file handlingTo top it all, code looks alien to you, you have no idea how to read it.The only individuals who would be able to bridge the knowledge above, would likely become programmers anyhow.

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yedava大约 2 年前

I really doubt if AI will have any impact on developer jobs. If I want to build an alternative to TurboTax, how much can AI help? I like to think of software as automating a large number of bizarre corner cases which are a result of us being human. And corner cases are what AI usually fails at.

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crop_rotation大约 2 年前

I think the article ends up makes the point in favour of AI anxiety:> In particular, I started to realize that every little thing that we decide not to do as a company could have been done,If every single company has more development bandwidth available, then at some multiple it would start driving demand and then wages down quickly. The multiple doesn't have to come just by AI improvements, as a lot of non developers can start using the AI to implement things.It is very good if you intend to found a company, you have multiplied the things your company can do by leaps and bounds. Not so good for salaries developers.

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Pxtl大约 2 年前

While I appreciate that smart people will use this as simply the next phase in bicycles for the mind, I can't help but see the current AI revolution as the first tremors of the singularity.At the rate this is developing, I can't help but think AIs will be designing smarter AIs within a decade or two. People reassure themselves that these AIs are just synthesizing the internet datasets -- that they don't have "souls". I would say that doesn't matter -- whether or not a submarine can swim, a race of advanced submarines could dominate the ocean.I'm not fully convinced that the singularity requires intentionally designing a general AI, or that a glorified chatbot with some Darwinian forces applied to its existence couldn't get there.People keep thinking The Matrix or I Have No Mouth But I Must Scream, but I just keep thinking Her -- that even a benevolent AI revolution means humans are pointless. Or worse, Bladerunner, since I'm quite sure that if we do create a general AI we'll still murder it after it answers 15 questions or steps out of line.That anxiety is much harder to shake than the one about my job - I thought we had more time.

emrah大约 2 年前

Honestly threat from AI is not novel in the sense that anyone is under threat from being replaced by cheaper labor or eliminated altogether. AI is simply the newest one. Before this, it was jobs moving to India, RAD tools for non-devs etc. At the end of the day, whoever is unable to stay relevant is going to get steamrolled by the machine (no pun intended) of progress

jacquesm大约 2 年前

How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

deafpolygon大约 2 年前

Guys, AI is not doomsday. If anything, it will be a boon to society when it reaches mass adoption. I'm thinking of how much faster we can develop new technologies, how much quicker we can research things. MEDICAL research that can be progressed that much quicker, lives that can be saved, animals rescued from extinction, etc. Hell, even the Computer from Star Trek. All of those things have potential applications with AI.It's just a new tool. Just like when computers arrived, mathematicians were not replaced just because computers could do the calculations faster. When autotune arrived, artists were not replaced - they just added that to their repertoire.Yes, some jobs will be lost. Yes, there will be a changing of the guards. That's just the nature of things - it's just how it's always been.

inparen大约 2 年前

This.> Then at some point he describes his first time writing a game in software. He goes on about how running all the variations he tried in software would take a skilled engineer months of work, and he had done it in a couple hours - and was ecstatic.I am sure everyone felt ecstatic at some point, regardless of their trade or field, when they worked on something all day or longer and got it done. The sheer joy it brings afterward makes your mind completely calm; past and future cease to exist for that moment. There are always going to be people like that.AI or no AI, 20 years from now, people will still be writing software because it just makes them happy. Sure, the nature of problems will change, but these are the people who will keep pushing the field forward.“I never think of the future - it comes soon enough.” - Grandpa Einstein.

gitfan86大约 2 年前

This is great. The world will change dramatically, and it is OK to be afraid of that and the unknowns, but the best approach is to take advantage of all the good things that are coming and do not spend too much time being sad about the things that are going away.

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chrisco255大约 2 年前

Can any ChatGPT fans point to some actual case studies where the time to market for producing a non-trivial piece of software was dramatically reduced?

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jschveibinz大约 2 年前

At one point around the turn of the 20th century, two guys riding on horses side by side came upon an automobile going about the same speed. The one guy said to the other, “I don’t get what people see in these automobiles. We are going just as fast on our horses. These autos aren’t going to last very long.”And they were on a relatively flat part of the tech curve…

ab-dm大约 2 年前

I've finally gotten around to reading Homo Deus by Yuval Noah Harari. It's been very interesting reading this alongside everything that's happening with AI at the moment.Would be curious to hear from others that have read it, but I find it difficult to fault his core arguments (or at least what I interpret them to be).The problem white collar humans have right now is that they're highly specialized. They're incredibly good at being very effective cogs. This is exactly what AI is getting so good at doing (in certain verticals). Traditional capitalism effectively demands that if a company can pay the owner of an algorithm 10% of what it would pay for a human to do the same thing (for even 80% of the quality), then that's what will eventually happen.Can government regulate it? They can sure try, but then either the companies or AI hosting providers will move to a country that doesn't have the same restrictions and it will happen anyway.Then people will say "it will just open up other industries". I'm not sure it will. What other industries will the swaths of copywriters, lawyers, accountants retrain for?I just don't understand everyone saying "It's going to make everyone's lives easier". In the short term sure, but if AI gets to where it's owners want it to get to, then a lot of people are going to find themselves professionally worthless.It's entirely possible that this is just not something we're prepared for, and it's almost guaranteed at this point that there's no stopping it.What's really interesting is this book was released in 2016... and Yuval was using Microsoft's Cortana as the example of this upcoming AI...Interesting times either way.

reset2023大约 2 年前

I see a crack, in the economic pyramid that has sustained socio-economic inequality for so many centuries.

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imchillyb大约 2 年前

I can't wait for the LLMs to 'invent' their own more efficient programming language, and a dumbed down IDE for us meatbags. Maybe they can even figure out a better way to silicon then we do now.I'm hopeful.