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The world can only end once

33 点作者 raviparikh大约 2 年前

17 条评论

titzer大约 2 年前
I love apocalypse movies, probably moreso than the next person. But in reality, the apocalypse is going to be pretty boring and bleak. AI probably won&#x27;t launch all the missiles or build terminators. What will probably happen is that we&#x27;ll just become so dependent on technology that we don&#x27;t understand that one day it just enters a unrecoverable crash loop or goes dark, and it&#x27;s back to the stone ages. But not in a really entertaining way, but more like a slow break down of civilization over a few weeks or months. If <i>everything</i> becomes automated, and I mean to the point that self-driving cars don&#x27;t have steering wheels anymore, power plants are too complicated to be rebooted, and communication infrastructure doesn&#x27;t function, then we&#x27;re not left with many options. If people start running out of food, then forget toilet paper shortages, that&#x27;s a walk in the park. If that happens because of cyberwar, cyberattack, or solar flares, it sort of doesn&#x27;t matter. It won&#x27;t be very fun or make for a good movie.
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PaulHoule大约 2 年前
It&#x27;s not just that there are people talking about existential risk but that the most prominent are talking about them in a flawed framework.<p>The &quot;longtermists&quot; aren&#x27;t so concerned that <i>we</i> die but are more concerned about an imagined glorious future where our descendants built self-replicating problems and fill the galaxy with simulated humans living inside Dyson spheres, Dyson swarms, something like that.<p>As preposterous as that sounds (there are at least as many steps from here to there as there are in Drake Equation, do we know we approve of those &quot;people&quot;?, can you make rational decisions about the future without incorporating a &quot;discount rate&quot; that extinguishes the weight of the infintely far future, ...) they make a case based on Pascal&#x27; Wager, even if there is only 1 part of a billion chance of this future coming true but there are 1000 trillion trillion beings in the future the welfare of those beings greatly exceeds the welfare of us all (PRO TIP: there&#x27;s a reason why you can&#x27;t add or multiply the utility functions of various beings in reputable game theory, economics, philosophy, ...)<p>It&#x27;s really a cult and it has as many front groups (&quot;effective altruism&quot;, Aella&#x27;s sex parties, &quot;morewrong&quot;) as the third international, Scientology or the LaRouche organizations. Like Scientology they think that you should be thinking about what <i>might</i> happen 50 million years from now or what the e-Meter said happened 76,412,981 years 54 days 7 hours and 35 minutes ago as opposed what is going on right now. They&#x27;ll tell you what logical fallacy I&#x27;m using if I compared them to People&#x27;s Temple, Heaven&#x27;s Gate, Aum Shinkrikyo, and they might be right, but few people thought those apocalyptic groups were going to come to their logical conclusion before they did.<p>And oddly... They couldn&#x27;t care less about climate change.
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ysavir大约 2 年前
I don&#x27;t remember if it was here on HN or somewhere else, but recently I saw a comment or post somewhere that pointed out that AI will not kill humanity. It will merely make it easy for humanity to kill itself. It will make it easier for someone to issue a command, or press a button, or take some other action that they ought to have thought through; but the AI gave them its well-intentioned vote of confidence, and the consequence may leave none to remember the error.<p>The thing to remember about AI is that it does what we ask of it to do. It&#x27;s not a matter of &quot;will artificial intelligence develop a consciousness that drives it towards the extermination of humans&quot;. We don&#x27;t have an Ultron on our hands. What we have before us is the best and worst enabler of human negligence. AI and the end of humanity is a matter of ensuring we don&#x27;t forsake our own responsibilities towards each other. And that goes for responsibilities with potential for catastrophe as well as the mundane.
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evrydayhustling大约 2 年前
This is a straw man argument. Cowen does not argue against the idea of existential risk, he argues that specifically nobody should believe they can anticipate the consequences of technological change.<p>You can agree with him and still be existentially concerned about a specific asteroid, or climate change. And you could use a little bit of energy monitoring the unintended consequences of AI, the way we monitor asteroids. But to wish to halt AI advancement requires an unhealthy mix of pessimism and overconfidence in your predictive powers.
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stephc_int13大约 2 年前
Irrational&#x2F;grandiose fears have been plaguing the discussion on this subject for years.<p>I think this should be taken seriously, and not like some &quot;smart&quot; teens too high on pot.<p>This problem with the destructive potential of any new powerful tech (and we have some indications that this LLM thing could be pushed to be _really_ something) is the unforeseen part, the second and third orders effects.<p>Being a bit careful, taking it slow, maybe, why not?<p>From a business&#x2F;economic&#x2F;technological perspective it also seems to be currently moving too fast to build anything on the current state of the art, as that could be obsolete two weeks later.
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Edgemute大约 2 年前
The end of the world is an ongoing process, happens almost imperceptibly.<p>&quot;Top AI researchers&quot; have no way to predict an event that has never happened, unless it is already happening. What is incredible is that we are still thinking that someone else is the expert in a matter that is right before our eyes.<p>Have you ever gotten the bad feeling that, the world as it is, is not going to keep its current form for too long? Has it gotten worse in the last 3 months?<p>Put it this way: who is the expert in a car crash?<p>I, for one, think that those who have created a self-fulfilling nightmare scenario should face legal consequences for once.<p>I totally agree that the &quot;extinction event&quot; way of thinking is very unhelpful.
gmuslera大约 2 年前
The world as we know it can end multiple times, with different ways of knowing it.<p>The physical world will remain in its place (unless a very improbable event happen), but things changed drastically around many singular events, several in our lifetimes. Personal computers, internet, 9&#x2F;11, iphone, snowden, facebook, and more are some examples that meant an end of the world as we used to know it. Probably AIs will be more akin to those examples than, i.e. end of civilization or extinction.
Mizoguchi大约 2 年前
My very limited understanding of AI so far:<p>There&#x27;s no formal definition of AI.<p>It&#x27;s kind of like Metevarse, everyone (used to) talks about it but no one has any idea what really is and there&#x27;s no organization certifying AI-able things, meanwhile everyone is building AI in a similar way everyone was building the Metaverse last year.<p>GPT is the acronym for Generative Pretrained Transformer.<p>So basically some guys took a massive amount of text from mostly two free very large datasets, spent $10M in hardware and ran it through some filters, tokenizers and models (transformers) to create a glorified text prediction tool.<p>Wait, it is not just a glorified text prediction tool, because GPTs are able to solve some very difficult problems in the area of computer-based linguistics.<p>One of these problems is anaphora resolution or &quot;the problem of resolving what a pronoun, or a noun phrase refers to.&quot;<p>So I went ahead and ran a simple query on ChatGPT to test this case and the answer was meh, it gave me a lengthy, verbose lecture of what should have been a two liner straight answer.<p>It kind of got confused with the nouns so the answer didn&#x27;t make a ton of sense either.<p>If ChatGPT is currently the hottest thing in AI, should we really be worried about it taking over the world?
deepsquirrelnet大约 2 年前
I think at the moment, doomsayers are too lazy to be taken seriously. This needs to be done old school, with fiction writing.<p>Seriously though, make us believe it. Pose a scenario that is speculation, a story, but realistic enough for us to believe it. Bridge the gap between thinking AI could destroy us to believing it could.<p>If art doesn’t have any power against AI, perhaps we’ve forgotten why we create it.
afpx大约 2 年前
People haven&#x27;t been wound this tight since right before Y2K.
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misssocrates大约 2 年前
What would you say to those who say we&#x27;ll just unplug it and go back to pre-Internet?<p>It would be hugely disruptive, but apocolytpic?<p>Some people still remember those days.
MattPalmer1086大约 2 年前
His argument is mostly sound. To say that all predictions of doom are wrong simply because all prior ones have been is a logical fallacy .<p>Sounding a warning is still useful even if the apocalypse doesn&#x27;t happen in specific cases. It&#x27;s better to be wrong about a lion being in the grass more often than you are right, if you value survival.
sublinear大约 2 年前
&quot;We have to win every time, but [nature] only has to win once&quot; &#x2F;s
slibhb大约 2 年前
The article concludes with:<p>&gt; To disprove the doomers, you have to engage with the specific arguments they put forth.<p>Nope. You can&#x27;t disprove doomers. All you can do is smile serenely every day that the world doesn&#x27;t end.
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arey_abhishek大约 2 年前
The doomsayers look silly because they are extrapolating from 0 evidence.<p>Humanity is not going to end because of an online bot that can summarise and string words into sentences. It’s basically a smarter SIRI&#x2F;Alexa. I mean the internet is not a ‘real’ place where humans live.
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Animats大约 2 年前
The question is not whether humanity can survive AI. It&#x27;s whether humanity can survive the combination of AI and capitalism.<p>AI is great for capitalism. Less need for labor. Not so great for the labor. If labor is just a market commodity, humans gradually lose.
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draw_down大约 2 年前
I like Taleb’s example of the turkey on the farm. Days 1-999 are great! Plenty of food, space to roam around, protected from predators. Why would they expect day 1000 to be any different?