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Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

194 点作者 starkd大约 2 年前

20 条评论

hinkley大约 2 年前
We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28.<p>According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but we aren’t usually measuring these sorts of problems in 2 decimal points to begin with.
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shrubble大约 2 年前
This is exactly what the &quot;deniers&quot; have been saying - that the mathematical model is not fleshed out enough, and the data is not present in sufficiently accurate quantity, for the climate models to be accurate.<p>This research shows that the mechanism of action was misunderstood all this time. What else hasn&#x27;t been researched enough and has simplistic assumptions baked into the climate models?<p>That shockingly simplistic models and the barest of data don&#x27;t actually have predictive power wouldn&#x27;t surprise people in any other scientific discipline, but it will certainly be cause enough for this subject, to have this comment voted into oblivion....
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pier25大约 2 年前
&gt; <i>Scientists fear that as warming triggers thaw of permafrost in the Arctic regions, this could also lead to increased methane emissions</i><p>Could?<p>This is already happening.<p>Scientists such as Natalia Shakhova have been studying this for years. This is a video of her from 10 years ago.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ</a>
BurningFrog大约 2 年前
Summary:<p>The effect is 30% less than previously thought, and global warming is still really really really important.
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henearkr大约 2 年前
To be honest, it would be awesome if the title could be change from &quot;Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought&quot; to &quot;Methane is 20x worse than CO2 instead of 28x worse&quot;.
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hatsune大约 2 年前
&quot;30% off&quot; ain&#x27;t a claim to be &quot;harmless&quot;. The stuff is still quite insane. Ditching cow and milk is still quite relevant. (Also, corn price for feeding cattles vs famine is still a topic with tension).
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_1cao大约 2 年前
Source study:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41561-023-01144-z" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41561-023-01144-z</a>
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jmyeet大约 2 年前
This stuff is complicated. Specifically you can&#x27;t do a straight comparison between the greenhouse effects of methane and carbon dioxide. Why? Methane is naturally destroyed in the atmosphere [1]:<p>&gt; Methane is naturally destroyed by both chemical and biological processes, including reaction with atmospheric hydroxyl [OH] and chlorine, and by methane-consuming bacteria (methanotrophs) in soil and water. This results in a lifetime in the air of 9.1 ± 0.9 years [12]. Thus, we face an important question—given methane is being removed from the air anyway, why trouble to do this artificially? It may be preferable to dedicate the cost and energy involved in methane removal to the task of stopping methane emissions, which would accomplish the same end result of lessening, halting, or reversing the growth of methane-driven climate warming, or, alternatively, simply to ignore methane and dedicate all efforts to CO2 removal. To answer this question, the specific methods of removing methane must be examined.
quaintdev大约 2 年前
Climate change deniers are going to have field day with this one.
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petermcneeley大约 2 年前
This diagram helps clear things up: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Greenhouse_gas#&#x2F;media&#x2F;File:Atmospheric_Transmission.svg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Greenhouse_gas#&#x2F;media&#x2F;File:Atm...</a><p>Methane has multiple peaks of absorption
EGreg大约 2 年前
I am a leftie environmentalist, yet I found this interview quite balanced and informative: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.prageru.com&#x2F;video&#x2F;why-are-energy-prices-so-frickin-high-with-chris-wright" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.prageru.com&#x2F;video&#x2F;why-are-energy-prices-so-frick...</a><p>Frankly, we as a global society have FAR more pressing issues than the greenhouse effect, such as:<p>Collapse of insect and bird populations<p>Overfishing and plummeting biodiversity as we turn the world into farms and monocultures<p>Destruction of coral reefs and kelp forests and rainforests<p>One third of arable land WORLDWIDE is now undergoing desertification<p>Day zero for many cities as aquifers run dry<p>Plastic by mass will outnumber fish in the oceans by 2050<p>Factory farms overuse of antibiotics and superbacteria…<p>And so on… somehow this “climate change” thing has hijacked the conversation and sucked all the political capital for things like sustainability, switching to non biodegradeable plastics, ending factory farms, etc.
jmartrican大约 2 年前
I wonder if global cloud coverage is being tracked and how it is trending. We can then see if methane is having a noticeable effect on cloud coverage over the years. I also imagine, there are other processes that effect cloud coverage.
1letterunixname大约 2 年前
On what time scale? Also, what about production?<p>It has a GWP of nearly 100 the first year but falls off rapidly.<p>If the hypothetical Methane Gun happened, there is immense warming potential that could rapidly melt regional ice sheets.
harold_b大约 2 年前
Climate change is an obvious scam - used by nocoiners to justify the prevention of a freedom-protecting monetary system
Etrnl_President大约 2 年前
Check the IR absorption spectra of water vapor, and be blown away! Far more heating than all other greenhouse gases combined.
lorddoig大约 2 年前
It is kind of astonishing to me to witness the discussion in these comments proceeding civilly and with actual regard to the science. In my experience this is vanishingly rare. It&#x27;s extremely refreshing. At risk of ruining that civility, I&#x27;d like to address some aspects of climate scepticism various other comments are touching on.<p>It is not difficult to see that a reasonable person may ask that if the UN is correct in saying 30% of climate change is due to methane[1] and this paper is correct in saying methane is 30% less effective at warming than we thought, then isn&#x27;t this whole climate change problem potentially ~9% smaller than we thought? And isn&#x27;t that actually pretty big? Big enough to potentially have policy implications?<p>I&#x27;m quite sure it&#x27;s not that simple but nevertheless as a starting point for discovery it&#x27;s a decent question. It&#x27;s also a question that will be met with astonishing levels of derision on social media, mainstream media, and in society more generally. Merely asking it will have large international media outlets like the BBC openly describing the questioner as a &#x27;climate sceptic&#x2F;denier&#x27; which, while some may wear it as a badge of honour, actually serves the purpose of shaming them publicly for wrongthink. Social media will of course be far worse in this regard.<p>We now live in a world where it is popularly considered valid to provide a political (to put it kindly) response to a scientific question. It is, of course, both invalid and indefensible.<p>I have no ideological aversion to the idea that climate change is real and a serious threat, but the quality of societal discourse on the topic has become so poor and so overtly political that there is absolutely no basis upon which I can accept either of those assertions as _actually scientifically_ true (short of becoming a climate scientist and spending the next however many years personally reviewing all the literature). For me to accept these assertions as fact would be indistinguishable from a declaration of religious faith. It isn&#x27;t going to happen.<p>Moreover the conduct of the pro-climate change &#x27;lobby&#x27; from the IPCC to the BBC to Just Stop Oil activists has, on the whole, fallen so far short of the standard demanded by the severity of the problem they espouse that I simply don&#x27;t believe them very much anymore. In my view--and I claim no authority on this matter, this is just how I see it--climate change may well be real and an existential threat, but it may also be a bureaucratic fantasy mistakenly grown from kernels of misunderstood or mistaken truths that has gotten so completely out of control that it&#x27;s now controlling us. It could also be somewhere in between, or something else entirely: I don&#x27;t know and I cannot know so long as society keeps excluding valid voices with valid questions.<p>I suppose I&#x27;m a climate sceptic then...but when it comes to deciding between being a sceptic or taking a leap of devotional faith, what choice do I have? Luckily it seems to me the way forward is the same in any case: the pro-climate change people, being the ones comprehensively &#x27;winning&#x27; the &#x27;argument&#x27; at the moment, need to show a little humility and engage in open debate with the well-meaning sceptics without the ad-hominem attacks, the gaslighting, the censorship, etc. It really is that simple, and the fact it’s so forcefully resisted should, in my view, give us all pause for thought.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.unep.org&#x2F;news-and-stories&#x2F;story&#x2F;methane-emissions-are-driving-climate-change-heres-how-reduce-them" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.unep.org&#x2F;news-and-stories&#x2F;story&#x2F;methane-emission...</a>
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ta8903大约 2 年前
How will this affect internet arguments about going vegan?
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drKarl大约 2 年前
And the cows taking all the blame for their flatulence
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cratermoon大约 2 年前
So we&#x27;re not quite as doomed as previously thought?
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thevtm大约 2 年前
We are free to fart outside once more!!
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