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Brains are bad at big numbers; it's impossible to grasp a million Covid deaths

9 点作者 deegles大约 2 年前

9 条评论

version_five大约 2 年前
2022<p>It seems covid hysterics feel they are much better at understanding numbers, and if only the rest of us did too, we&#x27;d be just as hysterical. I also remember being repeatedly told that only the enlightened can understand what exponential means.<p>To be a bit more serious, not reacting in the same way as you is not the same as not understanding. This smug &quot;if you were as smart as us you&#x27;d agree with us&quot; attitude causes a lot more problems than it solves, it&#x27;s just playing to the base.
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MollyRealized大约 2 年前
I tend to feel this is why <i>biologically</i> we were not ready for the Internet.<p>Dunbar&#x27;s number [1] makes us feel as if there&#x27;s only 150 people in our monkeysphere [2]. So when someone&#x27;s yelling at us from the other side of the Internet, our brains aren&#x27;t equipped to say &quot;that&#x27;s one in a million&quot; - it feels like there&#x27;s one in 150 and suddenly we&#x27;ve got SIWOTI Syndrome [3] going.<p>It really showed up during the pandemic - our brain couldn&#x27;t process getting immediate notice that there was 150 people (among 8 million in our county) with a deadly disease.<p>[1] - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Dunbar&#x27;s_number" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Dunbar&#x27;s_number</a><p>[2] - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cracked.com&#x2F;article_14990_what-monkeysphere.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cracked.com&#x2F;article_14990_what-monkeysphere.html</a><p>[3] - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.explainxkcd.com&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;index.php&#x2F;SIWOTI_Syndrome" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.explainxkcd.com&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;index.php&#x2F;SIWOTI_Syndrome</a>
MattGaiser大约 2 年前
This also assumes people care.<p>The gun deaths pile up. Nothing is done.<p>The health care system deaths pile up. Nothing is done.<p>The AIDs deaths piled up years ago. A collective shrug was all there was.
astrostl大约 2 年前
The way I approach big numbers is to use it in a representative Major League Baseball stadium with 40,000 people, because even though it&#x27;s hard to grok I at least a have a felt sense of what that is like. 1M COVID deaths, then, becomes 25 entire MLB stadiums (there are only 30 of them by the way) getting vaporized. I also use this for things like chances: a 1-in-400 would be the equivalent of 100 tickets in the stadium being selected for something, so I ask myself, &quot;if I were at a game how excited or nervous would I be if they surprise-announced this?&quot;
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two_in_one大约 2 年前
Humans can get used to a lot. There was an article about nurses in Baghdad hospital. They we joking and lough with hands covered in blood. When asked why, they said if they would be crying for everyone, they would be crying all days an nights. Life goes on. Not much can we do about covid, only check how the numbers were counted and compare with others. Like flue, crime, car crashes. These are more important because we can do something.
cc101大约 2 年前
Setting aside the number issue, it&#x27;s nearly impossible to grasp one death. All that we can say about a million Covid deaths is that there is something horrible beyond comprehension there. Or, I suppose, we can denigh that there is anything there to grasp.
jschveibinz大约 2 年前
It’s a terrible thought, and no disrespect is intended, but a large football stadium holds roughly 100,000 people. So a million people is about 10 large football stadiums. That seems like a reasonable way to comprehend the size and the amount of loss.
throwaway22032大约 2 年前
Yes, but what we can do is compare, as the article states.<p>In the UK, since early 2020 there have been 220K deaths from coronavirus in a population of 70 million. That&#x27;s approximately 0.3% of the population. (My understanding is that the US has roughly the same proportion).<p>I feel very able to grasp that, you can just look at, say, ordinarily, very roughly 1% of the population dies per year.<p>edit: the actual percentage is slightly lower, but this is a good ballpark.<p>If we front load all of the coronavirus deaths into year 1 (this is pretty much true, it&#x27;s really tailed off post vaccine), and we assume they&#x27;re all &quot;excess&quot; deaths, then it&#x27;s a bumper year in which we have 30%, maybe 40-50% more deaths than normal.<p>Whether you feel that&#x27;s a lot is an opinion. I feel it&#x27;s significant but didn&#x27;t warrant the response it got.<p>I actually think that what people don&#x27;t realise intuitively is that over half a million people die annually in the UK. We are actually indeed mortal.
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breck大约 2 年前
&gt; &quot;This pandemic has been full of hard-to-comprehend numbers.&quot;<p>Alternative explanation &quot;hard-to-comprehend numbers&quot; =&gt; &quot;lies&quot;. I saved a news clip of the Governor of Hawai&#x27;i claiming on prime time news (unquestioned) that Covid had a 10% fatality rate (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;spreadsheets&#x2F;d&#x2F;1cMdfajHRjvciOkROPDEAWhdSaANyChhazcvWk8WQFfQ&#x2F;edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;spreadsheets&#x2F;d&#x2F;1cMdfajHRjvciOkROPDEA...</a>), in August of 2020. The only thing hard-to-comprehend is how so many government leaders could repeat such outright lies over and over again.<p>It&#x27;s not that &quot;brains are bad at big numbers&quot;, it is that &quot;brains are bad at big lies&quot;. When you try to make sense of it you can&#x27;t, unless you realize that leaders lie and people believe them.<p>(On the 1M deaths lie: old age and underlying conditions actually caused most of these &quot;Covid deaths&quot;)