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Fake scientific papers are alarmingly common

191 点作者 tyjen大约 2 年前

33 条评论

Turukawa大约 2 年前
The researchers in this paper use an astonishingly biased &quot;fake paper detector&quot;, requiring only two conditions to be met for any paper to be considered &quot;fake&quot;:<p>1. Use a non-institutional email address, or have a hospital affiliation, 2. Have no international co-authors.<p>And they acknowledge 86% sensitivity and 44% specificity. It&#x27;s a coin-toss which biases massively against research from outside the US and Western Europe.<p>This &quot;paper&quot; is bigoted nonsense.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fediscience.org&#x2F;@ct_bergstrom&#x2F;110357278154604907" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fediscience.org&#x2F;@ct_bergstrom&#x2F;110357278154604907</a>
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rst大约 2 年前
The metrics used in this paper are... deeply flawed, to the point that the authors admit that they label nearly half of <i>known good</i> papers in a curated sample as &quot;fake&quot; -- and particularly likely to generate false positives for researchers whose institutions don&#x27;t, say, run their own email systems (as is common in large chunks of the world). Here&#x27;s a rundown of the flaws from an epidemiologist with a sideline in scientific communication:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fediscience.org&#x2F;@ct_bergstrom&#x2F;110357259338364341" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fediscience.org&#x2F;@ct_bergstrom&#x2F;110357259338364341</a>
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alsodumb大约 2 年前
Unfortunately, it&#x27;s an open secret that fake or low-effort almost useless papers are very common in every area of scientific research.<p>Typically, it doesn&#x27;t affect people working in that specific area - they develop&#x2F;have a sixth sense to detect bullshit papers - it comes with experience but depends on several factors including the authors reputation, their institution (for the first screening), what journal&#x2F;conference the paper was published in, authors other work, and sometimes things as simple as how much effort was put into the figures, polishing the text, etc. Some of these things are LLM proof, some of them are not - e.g. a senior professor I was talking to, who&#x27;s been getting like 50-100 emails a week from non-english speaking countries (primarily India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) mentioned that the quality of the text in the emails went up significantly almost overnight after ChatGPT was made open to public. It&#x27;ll be interesting to see how things change in the next few months&#x2F;years.
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Strilanc大约 2 年前
&gt; <i>Sabel’s tool relies on just two indicators — authors who use private, noninstitutional email addresses, and [...]</i><p>Uh huh.<p>I didn&#x27;t realize until today that all my papers are fake because I give contact information that won&#x27;t go stale in 3 years, instead of my work email.
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__MatrixMan__大约 2 年前
&gt; Such manuscripts threaten to corrupt the scientific literature, misleading readers and potentially distorting systematic reviews.<p>Is treating &quot;the scientific literature&quot; as a single thing perhaps a habit worth giving up?<p>As convenient as it would be to be able to just blindly trust something because of where it is published, that model hasn&#x27;t shown itself to be especially robust in other cases (e.g. the news media).<p>Elsewhere, this is a red flag:<p>&gt; I trust it because of which aggregator aggregated it<p>Should we really make an exception for science? I think that academia is a bit biased towards optimism about publisher-based root-of-trust models because scientific publishing is a relatively unweaponized space. Sure, shenanigans happen, but not at the same scale as elsewhere. The fakers are just trying to get another published paper, they&#x27;re for the most part not trying to mislead. It&#x27;s only fake news with a lowercase-f.<p>Sure, let&#x27;s try to create a medium we can trust, but let&#x27;s not get our hopes too high about it. That&#x27;s energy better spent augmenting the ability of a reader or researcher to decide whether to trust a paper based on it&#x27;s content or based on it having been endorsed or authored by somebody that they explicitly (or transitively) trust.
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vhcr大约 2 年前
&gt; STM hasn’t yet generated figures on accuracy or false-positive rates because the project is too new. But catching as many fakes as possible typically produces more false positives. Sabel’s tool correctly flagged nearly 90% of fraudulent or retracted papers in a test sample. However, it marked up to 44% of genuine papers as fake
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aurizon大约 2 年前
I am amazed at how well Alexandra Elbakyan has created and promoted sci-hub to fight these journal cash cows, and appalled at the way these journals have tried to block her. They now digitally watermark every journal downloaded at colleges etc, so they can ID the provenance of the journals = she must obfuscate this as best she can. The journals try to punish universities that leak papers to sci-hub Give her a wave.... <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sci-hub.se&#x2F;alexandra" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sci-hub.se&#x2F;alexandra</a>
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aurizon大约 2 年前
The cash cows, AKA Elsevier et al, need to do more to stem the flow of BS. The problem is the proliferation of well crafted, but fake, papers has grown enormously over the past 25 years as the cows rely on free paper editors - who are swamped by this duty = time for paid scientists to winnow the chaff. Sadly the cows are a greedy lot. Only way out is fully open. Back in the day when Nobel was born, the journals and authors circulated as near free resources, with authors mailing free copies on request, and now emailing them (often this is interdicted by the cows) and journal fees being modest - covering production costs. Nobel would be (IMHO) royally pissed at the present state. So I suggest the Nobel Committee introduce a policy that only openly published papers would be read and considered by the committee - This would put a tiger among the pigeons(Cows) and change things - say, after Jan 1 2024?
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tyjen大约 2 年前
Sadly, this doesn&#x27;t even include the studies with authors who produce poor experiments and theories, or go out of their way to prove their results; effectively, generating additional scientific publication waste we have to sift through to find genuine material, or worse off, that people then use to create policies impacting large populations that are doomed to fail in the long-run. The image this creates for me, is building a house on quicksand.
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ratg13大约 2 年前
&gt;<i>Sabel’s tool relies on just two indicators—authors who use private, noninstitutional email addresses, and those who list an affiliation with a hospital.</i><p>Can someone explain why the affiliation with a hospital is used as a key indicator?
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natural219大约 2 年前
If people think that 100%-fake papers, with completely made up data and process are bad... wait until people learn how bad 30%-fake papers are, with real cherry-picked data and absurd levels of p-hacking :p
winstonprivacy大约 2 年前
I found one the other day in the area of finance. The Chinese researchers claimed to have discovered a small tweak to a long established indicator which they described as giving a remarkable increase in r-squared value across a cross section of markets.<p>Sounds great, who wouldn&#x27;t want to use this? So I implemented and find that their increase was due entirely to applying a log transform of the input variables. The resulting clusters were tighter, but it had zero predictive capability.<p>Very disappointing but in my experience, this is not uncommon.
DoreenMichele大约 2 年前
I&#x27;ve read other stuff related to this issue. It seems to me our current system exists in a social reality for which our metrics of authenticity were not designed and it harms both credentialization -- which is recognized as a problem -- and also serious science in ways that are not readily acknowledged as a problem.<p>Mendel, father of genetics, failed to become an accredited teacher. His work on genetics would likely get no recognition in this environment of <i>credentialism is king</i>.<p>Some guy who knows enough about genetics he created his own home pill to deliver genes into his gut to fix his lactose intolerance is being ignored by the world. Someone recently told me on HN that his video sounds like a scam video of a sort that is common (probably in a redacted comment).<p>I have a genetic disorder, which fails to pass the credentialism test. For that and other reasons, I didn&#x27;t bother to say anything like &quot;Sorry you don&#x27;t know enough about genetics to follow it.&quot;<p>The individual wanted to know where the &quot;studies&quot; and &quot;papers&quot; were. And they likely don&#x27;t exist and will never exist because there&#x27;s no profit in it for someone else to try to build on his work.<p>I don&#x27;t know how we fix this, but the world has changed and it&#x27;s valuing the facade of scientific work more than actual scientific work and it makes me want to scream.
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throwoutway大约 2 年前
Im afraid &quot;new tools&quot; aren&#x27;t going to &quot;tackle&quot; the problem. There are source problem (bad incentives, low integrity, people-pleasing behavior), and second-order tools that amplify that (second-order problems).<p>Adding new tools to &#x27;detect&#x27; that don&#x27;t solve the original problem, they might reduce the second-order problem, but do not touch the source problem. These are band-aids trying to stop a flood of bad science
placesalt大约 2 年前
I&#x27;m not sure what this says about my turn of mind - probably too devious. But I wonder if one tack that fraudsters could follow would be to publish a paper with the named author(s) being legitimate scientists, and then include some citations inside the paper to the fraudster&#x27;s other papers.<p>You&#x27;d need to use some obfuscated correspondence email to complete the loop.
ad48大约 2 年前
Hi, my name is Adam Day. I was interviewed for this piece in Science. If you are interested to learn more about papermills, I have a popular blog on the subject. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;@clearskiesadam" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;@clearskiesadam</a> Also happy to answer any questions you might have.
casey2大约 2 年前
&gt;“It will never be a [fully] automated process,” he says. Rather, the tools are like “a spam filter … you still want to go through your spam filter every week” to check for erroneously flagged legitimate content.<p>Even the article makes it clear that this is just a wide net for an automatic first pass. Of course, it is biased towards countries with lax standards.
pvaldes大约 2 年前
The requirement to be introduced in the club by a international (ehum... anglo-saxon) partner is very condescending, and scientific colonialism at its best. The burden of the white scientist.<p>People can do science on local problems without being babysat by a foreigner that most of the time will just appear and sign.
mnd999大约 2 年前
Just wait until ChatGPT starts writing them.
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netzego大约 2 年前
&#x27;In an example of Brandolini&#x27;s law [...] &quot;It took this guy 15 minutes to make his video and it took me three days to fact-check.&quot;&#x27; [1]<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Brandolini%27s_law" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Brandolini%27s_law</a>
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belter大约 2 年前
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;journals.plos.org&#x2F;plosmedicine&#x2F;article&#x2F;file?id=10.1371&#x2F;journal.pmed.0020124&amp;type=printable" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;journals.plos.org&#x2F;plosmedicine&#x2F;article&#x2F;file?id=10.13...</a>
nephanth大约 2 年前
I wonder what are the incentives&#x2F; reasons for producing all those fake papers<p>It&#x27;s not like paper authors get any kind of royalties. Some journals even make you pay to publish.<p>So why are they doing that? Maybe that&#x27;s what we need to attack
oldstrangers大约 2 年前
I wrote one (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;solipsismwow.com&#x2F;#paper" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;solipsismwow.com&#x2F;#paper</a>). But it&#x27;s literally fake. Thanks GPT.
mtkhaos大约 2 年前
It would be nice if the Scientific community had the same rigor as a test driven development pipeline.<p>Strange world
just_a_quack大约 2 年前
I remember when scigen successfully published one or two papers in a journal.
naveen99大约 2 年前
Noise will always be a larger infinity than signal. Karma is the signal.
dmbche大约 2 年前
I&#x27;d love to read it, but it&#x27;s blocked. Anyone can summarize?
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galaxyLogic大约 2 年前
A Chatbot could create fake scientific papers, right?
aj7大约 2 年前
Now, how do you deal with the false positives?
fuzzfactor大约 2 年前
Not so much like this in natural science.
phyzome大约 2 年前
Flagged for being complete bull pucky.
godelski大约 2 年前
We must always put this in context, and I think we need to be careful about the narratives. Here&#x27;s a few rules of thumbs<p>- Realistically the only people who can determine if a work is sound or not are other researchers in that same field.<p>- Peer review is a weak signal: reviewers are good at recognizing bad papers but not good at recognizing good papers (read this carefully).<p>- Most papers aren&#x27;t highly influential. Thus meaning that we don&#x27;t rely heavily on the results of most works (we rely weakly or purely for citations).<p>- The more influential a work is the more likely it is to be reproduced and scrutinized.<p>- Benchmarks are benchmarks, nothing more. Benchmarks are weak signals at best and shouldn&#x27;t be used to make strong conclusions. Be that a p-value, FID, or even likelihood.<p>So we have to keep this in mind for a lot of reasons. One is how we discuss with the public. Headlines like this often make people grow wary of science. While scrutiny is good we have a good history of being successful. All processes are noisy but the cream has is more likely to come to the top and the surface is less noisy. It also tells us about who we should be listening to when taking advice and summaries of works. If you believe the news has failed us, then look to the sources.<p>I see many who only get their science from news sources that claim scientists are corrupt. I found this odd, especially considering I&#x27;ve worked at national labs and I can tell you that no one there is doing it for the money. You&#x27;d have to be a fucking idiot to do science for money. It doesn&#x27;t pay well, you never get real time off, there is a high barrier to entry, and you are under high amounts of pressure. We&#x27;re on a forum with Silicon Valley wages: the average physicist wage is 100k, what you&#x27;d make with a BS in CS but need an advanced degree for working at a lab. Let try to compare likes and likes by looking at LLNL. As a PhD physicist you&#x27;ll make between $150k and $200&#x2F;yr. You&#x27;ll make the same as a PhD computer scientist. Yeah, this seems good, but we need to consider that if you drove 45 minutes west then that would be your base salary and you&#x27;d be making the same in other compensations. You can easily verify this and there&#x27;s plenty of people you can ask for personal experience (I&#x27;ve seen people jump ship often). This doesn&#x27;t prove that they aren&#x27;t corrupt, but it provides strong evidence that if these people were motivated by monetary compensations (or even prestige) then there are far better opportunities for them.<p>Another important aspect, which I think is critical to forums like this, is to be careful how you as a non domain expert. Opinions are fine and no one should prevent you from having them. But the confidence in your opinion should be proportional to your qualifications. If you&#x27;re an expert in one domain I&#x27;m sure you&#x27;re frustrated by how many people discuss your domain as if they knew so much and they get so much wrong. How wrong answers float to the top of forums (HN and Reddit) and the gems are hidden. This usually comes down to a lack of nuanced understanding. Simple answers are almost never correct. Murry Gell-Mann amnesia doesn&#x27;t just apply to reading the news. Discussions can be had without teaching. Scientific discussions aren&#x27;t done through debate. Determine your goals, and ask yourself if the way you are discussing allows you to change your opinion or not. Make sure you&#x27;re on the same page as others, using the same assumptions (this is a key failure point). I&#x27;ll argue to go in with care. If you don&#x27;t, you&#x27;re just adding to the noise.
noufalibrahim大约 2 年前
So&#x27;s fake science.