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Signs of de-dollarisation emerging, Wall Street giant JPMorgan says

58 点作者 haltingproblem将近 2 年前

9 条评论

throwawaymaths将近 2 年前
What are the alternatives?<p>- euro<p><pre><code> Too many cooks spoil the kitchen, unpredictable policy, serious liability monetization issues. Currently Europe runs the presses about as much as the US. IT is going to be running the presses even more as the entire continent militarizes while the US&#x27;s share of security agreement wanes and Europe pays for a greater share of its defense. </code></pre> - yuan<p><pre><code> Debt to GDP ratio of 200%, highly manipulated currency (uhh how do you think the evergrande crisis just disappeared one day), *capital controls* where citizens can&#x27;t take money out of the country... When capital controls are removed, necessary to achieve reserve currency status, the whole system will suddenly be incredibly unstable. </code></pre> - ruble<p><pre><code> Is using the reserve currency of a pariah state really a consideration? </code></pre> - reais<p><pre><code> Let&#x27;s use a currency that has its name because they had to trick people into acceting a remonetization for the Nth time. </code></pre> The whole dedollarization narrative is like some weird propaganda pushed by china. Look, the dollar sucks, and maybe some countries will flip to the yuan (it&#x27;s easy to buy off politicians) but those countries that do are going to be utterly screwed because the it&#x27;s structurally worse than the dollar, and emerging markets will be forced to be shackled to a currency controlled by a competing (producer) interest.
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hospitalJail将近 2 年前
&gt;Signs of de-dollarisation are unfolding in the global economy, strategists at the biggest U.S. bank JPMorgan said on Monday, although the currency should maintain its long-held dominance for the foreseeable future.<p>So... not as scary as the title.<p>Anyway what is the alternative? Commodities? China&#x27;s currency is too controlled. Euro(pe) is too reckless. I like Bitcoin for storing value against inflation, but its not a great currency. GBP? Maybe, but for such a small economy, that is a lot of eggs in 1 basket.<p>I&#x27;m the first one to be skeptical of government fiat currency holding value, but which big player is doing it better?
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pcurve将近 2 年前
Here&#x27;s 25 year trend chart.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imf.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;Blogs&#x2F;Articles&#x2F;2022&#x2F;06&#x2F;01&#x2F;blog-dollar-dominance-and-the-rise-of-nontraditional-reserve-currencies" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imf.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;Blogs&#x2F;Articles&#x2F;2022&#x2F;06&#x2F;01&#x2F;blog-dollar...</a><p>The only way the ratio would change meaningfully is if the current emerging countries dependent on China were to continue to grow strongly for the next few decades.
KptMarchewa将近 2 年前
You could find articles with the same headline for the last 30 years.<p>One of favorite topic for particular breed of financial conspiracy theorists like Schiff.
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EscapeFromNY将近 2 年前
USD as a percentage of global foreign reserves has fallen 10% in 20 years... from 70% to 60%. If &quot;de-dollarisation&quot; does happen it&#x27;s going to take a LONG time.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imf.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;Blogs&#x2F;Articles&#x2F;2021&#x2F;05&#x2F;05&#x2F;blog-us-dollar-share-of-global-foreign-exchange-reserves-drops-to-25-year-low" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imf.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;Blogs&#x2F;Articles&#x2F;2021&#x2F;05&#x2F;05&#x2F;blog-us-dol...</a>
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bwb将近 2 年前
“The dollar&#x27;s share of traded currency volumes is just shy of record highs, at 88%, while the euro&#x27;s share has shrunk by 8 percentage points in the last decade to a record low of 31%. The share of the Chinese yuan, meanwhile, has risen to a record high of 7%”<p>Um where?<p>Why do exports matter for FX? Exports are local?
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Invictus0将近 2 年前
Surprising to see that so many people don&#x27;t believe this is happening. Yes it is happening slowly but there quite are a lot of incentives for China and it&#x27;s allies to move away from the dollar, and China has the economic power to pull it off.
wonderwonder将近 2 年前
Keep stacking sats
mikece将近 2 年前
Once de-dollarization hits an inflection point there&#x27;s a good chance that hyperinflation and chaos will follow. I hope we can somehow avoid that.
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