This is a unsupported analysis. Despite the California DMV mandatory reporting requirements for autonomous driving systems (ADS) with a safety driver [1], FSD under open beta testing with a safety driver has been deliberately underclassified by Tesla to not qualify as a autonomous driving system to suppress disclosure of their raw usage data [2]. As the only entity with the raw information is the manufacturer which has a inherent conflict of interest, no robust untainted safety analysis is possible.<p>The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) does have a standing general order (SGO) [3] requiring the disclosure of all ADAS incidents [4]. However, Tesla redacts which system and version was in use in all reports citing proprietary information unlike other manufacturers which only redact in a small fraction of their reports. In addition, a cursory examination (filter to Report Type 10-Day Update) shows 749 Tesla incidents with 711 having unknown injury severity. This is distinct from "No Injuries Reported" where they know that no injury occurred; they only know for certain that nobody died in less than 5% of the cases. This is again in contrast to all other manufacturers combined which only have a total of 203 incidents of which only 63 have unknown severity. That is 5% known for Tesla versus 70% known for all other manufacturers, a 14x difference. The deliberate censoring of the incident information by Tesla makes it even more impossible to do a meaningful analysis.<p>So, not only is the denominator suppressed, even the numerator is censored. It is straight up impossible for any third party to do any analysis. As the default assumption with safety-critical systems is that they are unsafe, and it is literally impossible for any untainted safety analysis to be done, it is affirmatively unsafe until at a minimum they stop suppressing the incident and usage information that they are legally required to disclose.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/testing-autonomous-vehicles-without-a-driver/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disengagement-report-from-california/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disen...</a><p>[3] <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-order-crash-reporting" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-orde...</a><p>[4] <a href="https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/ffdd/sgo-2021-01/SGO-2021-01_Incident_Reports_ADAS.csv" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/ffdd/sgo-2021-01/SGO-2021-01_In...</a>