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America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it

189 点作者 mjn超过 1 年前

24 条评论

mensetmanusman超过 1 年前
I work in one of the last remaining large industrial manufacturing labs in the US. Some of my colleagues worked at Bell before that was shuttered.<p>My sense from talking to the previous generation is that financialization of the US has started (finally) failing the American people.<p>The previous generation cashed in on major profits by off shoring (Kodak), but we overdid it.<p>In a round about way our company is run by pension funds, and I work on projects that would get 8-9 figure investments if we were doing this in APEC, but we would rather have stock buybacks, so we end up getting 6 figures and puttering along.<p>Meanwhile the higher ups wonder ‘what happened to R&amp;D?!’
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Animats超过 1 年前
Note the absence of tax policy changes that favor manufacturing. Here are a few:<p>* A tax on financial transactions. This is sometimes called a &quot;Tobin tax&quot;. The US financial services sector has doubled in size as a fraction of the economy. It&#x27;s currently around 12%. That&#x27;s an overhead cost, and a big one. Could be half that.<p>* A tax on advertising. The tax deductiblity of advertising as a business expense should be limited. No more than a few percent of the cost of a good or service should be advertising. Domestic US advertising is almost zero sum, anyway, because Americans are spent out. All advertising does is move consumption around a bit.<p>* Standards for imports. If it plugs into AC power, it has to have UL certification. No more fires from power supplies, including small electric vehicles. Anything medical has to be sample tested after import. Criminalize willful violations. Hold resellers (i.e. Amazon) criminally responsible.
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mdorazio超过 1 年前
Here are the key points the article suggests (it spends quite a long time explaining how we got here):<p>1) Improve the [government sponsored] Manufacturing Institutes<p>2) [federally] Back R&amp;D for manufacturing technologies<p>3) Provide scale-up financing [by the government]<p>4) Use government procurement power to promote new manufacturing technologies<p>5) Direct production support [to sectors deemed critical]<p>6) Provide both “top-down” [gov picks a tech and supports development of it] and “bottom-up” [broad incentives like IRA] support<p>7) Build a manufacturing focus into existing industrial policy programs<p>8) Map and fill gaps in supply chains<p>9) Fix workforce education [by refocusing on legitimate vocational tracks]<p>10) Put someone in charge [of coordinating agencies, budgets, and efforts]<p>This is all effectively trying to copy large segments of the China playbook, but in my opinion it misses some rather important points. Namely, protectionism and implicit incentives. On the first point, you can&#x27;t really compete with China when it is actively hostile to foreign companies and de facto encourages outright theft of knowledge and expertise in exchange for access to its market. As long as we have a significant portion of people yelling about &quot;trade wars don&#x27;t solve anything&quot; any time someone proposes leveling the playing field, competition is a nonstarter.<p>On the second point, the elephant in the room is that smart people in the US can make 2-3X as much in software or finance as they can in manufacturing, so what do you think they&#x27;re going to pick? Which company is private investment going to fund - the SaaS co. with 40% margins and rapid growth or the manufacturing co. scraping 10% margins and 5% CAGR? It&#x27;s hard to see where the skilled labor and private investment side of the equation is supposed to come from when the incentives are so mismatched - you almost have to find a way to decrease incentives in the currently lucrative pools first.
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Roark66超过 1 年前
The article raises and goes fairly deep into explaining many important issues, but I find it&#x27;s naive belief the numbers China presents quite surprising.<p>Take this for example: &gt;China dominates the production of full electric vehicles<p>And put it in context with the recent revelations of hectares of abandoned new EVs rotting in many locations in China. Why? The financial policy gave incentives to making more EVs, some enterprising individuals managed to manufacture very low quality cars while funding it with &quot;shared car startup model&quot;. Then when these car sharing schemes went bankrupt (because many cars wouldn&#x27;t complete a single trip without malfunction) they had enormous profits regardless. How? The cost of manufacturing was funded by investors in these startups(a third party, or a client from the manufacturer&#x27;s point of view). After they went bankrupt there would be no warranty claims etc. While the per car gov subsidy was pure profit.<p>I cannot understand why anyone in the West would believe any economic statistic or number coming out of China. The country is known for fudging numbers at all levels. The corruption is endemic to the point one actually pays for government positions with cash (as a bribe to higher ups) and considers it an investment to recoup in own bribes in future.<p>It&#x27;s Soviet Union all over again. Back then The West to the last moment had many prominent authors praising Soviet advancements in many fields until the very end and the collapse that was a complete surprise to many.
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justinclift超过 1 年前
Good luck with that. :(<p>Rent seeking behaviour is so deeply entrenched in US-led business culture, that any time potential advances are figured out they are viewed through the lens of &quot;can we patent this?&quot;.<p>If the answer is &quot;No&quot;, then funds for developing that potential advance - eg concept dev, prototyping, potential field testing - just don&#x27;t exist.<p>It&#x27;s not about being able to improve manufacturing. It&#x27;s become &quot;what&#x27;s the greatest ROI on spending these dollars? Can we lock in a monopoly around it somehow too?&quot;.<p>While that short sighted foot gun approach remains prevalent, &quot;fixing&quot; the advanced manufacturing problem is going to proceed pretty damn slowly.<p>Outright abolishing all patents <i>might</i> get things going in the right direction, but the heart attacks that would cause in business circles makes that impractical. ;)
hnthrowaway0315超过 1 年前
This is simply because the American elites have chosen a different way to prosper. They have chosen, to reach the top of the world, and then ripe the easier and larger pies. The might of the US military protects the interests of the financial institutions (and some other oligarchs), and this can go on as long as the US military is strong enough. It is thus NOT the interest of the American elites to promote manufacturing. Not only that, even the American people are getting used to it too, they too do not want to work in manufacturing, tiring and non-prestigious.<p>I don&#x27;t really see a way to reverse everything. It is not about investing more in education or patching up policies. We are talking about a whole generation, maybe two, of elites and (some of the) people who profit from globalization. You simply cannot rely on the hands to chop themselves off. This is going to be a violent, bloody process because changing tides in politics is always bloody, literally. This is also going to touch the cake of numerous upper-middle class interest groups: landlords, bankers, you name it, anyone who prosper from the last 40 or so years, especially last 10 years since the first QE. Why? Because you are basically saying, OK I&#x27;m going to create a new group of middle class people but hey the cake is just that big so I need to cut someone else&#x27;s piece.<p>Of course, everything has a cheat. The cheat, which I believe was already chosen by the American elites, is to instill conflicts globally and create mass exodus of highly skilled workers from other countries to the United of States.
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dalbasal超过 1 年前
&gt;&gt;<i>The Department of Defense’s (DoD) mission has traditionally been one of military security rather than economic security and assuring a strong American industrial base. Yet economic security and military security are now inseparable.</i><p>I think a big, poorly understood part of these stories is &quot;advanced games&quot; or &quot;long term degeneration.&quot;<p>Take government procurement, like fighter jets or new hospitals. Post-war, the way this worked was &quot;cost-plus.&quot; Companies accounted for their costs and were promised a fixed profit. The obvious flaw is that companies lose interest in efficiency. But... it did work during the war and resulted in more tanks, ships and jets than anyone thought possible. It also worked post war.<p>But, such games mature. Under &quot;cost-plus&quot; a company increases profits by spending. That&#x27;s an incentive that will bite eventually. So... they move to competitive bidding. This degenerates into a lawyers-only game, etc.<p>That&#x27;s the administrative layer, but game maturation also exists at the political layer. Rooseveltism was a thing for a while, and then anti-rooseveltism became it&#x27;s competition. During the neoliberal era, industrial policy was the devil. Half the international institutions (trade deals, imf, wb) exist mostly to enforce bans and limits on industrial policy.<p>During this era, when governments&#x27; job was to &quot;get out of the way,&quot; the alternative to (now evil) industrial policy was either big trade deals, or tax policies. Tax breaks and tax complexity counted as &quot;getting out of the way&quot; while trade deals structured markets (eg auto-manufacturing) with more detailed rules than a Soviet five year plan.<p>Anyway.... the statement about making economics a defence job... it feels like an attempt to declare bankruptcy on the &quot;trade-deals and tax breaks&quot; era, and move to an weirder and more awkward model. A bad idea that hasn&#x27;t played out might be better than a better one that has.
wonder_er超过 1 年前
&quot;America&quot; is so hideously crippled by the heavy duty ethnic cleansing and regimes of social control baked into land use laws and transportation&#x2F;mobility networks that &#x27;advanced&#x27; problems are not even eligible to be solved.<p>Sorta a &#x27;do not pass go, do not collect $200, until {x} is solved&#x27; situation.<p>If a city still has parking minimums on the books, I evaluate all involved parties as utterly unserious, pseudo-scientific religious zealots.<p>Do you think the American south, in the era of chattel slavery, could solve &#x27;advanced manufacturing problems&#x27;? NO! of course not! So why does anyone think &#x27;america&#x27; could solve an advanced problem?<p>Meh. I shouldn&#x27;t be surprised by the article, though. The authors probably think the USA isn&#x27;t a backwater country that is &#x27;on top&#x27; only via a willingness to use economic and actual violence to achieve all aims.
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balderdash超过 1 年前
Much of this is about the dirty part of the supply chain. Take solar panels, china makes like ~90% of the worlds supply, yes there is the high end research, but then there is the poly silicon mining and refining&#x2F;ingots, wafer, cells, and modules. You can’t just reshore some it - you have to do all of it, otherwise it doesn’t make a ton of sense, and that means mines and refineries which we’ve rightly or wrongly stopped building here in the US.
simonblack超过 1 年前
It&#x27;s more than factories that are missing today in the US. It&#x27;s the millions of workers that have the skill-sets to work those factories.<p>In the 40 years that the US has offshored manufacturing, all of those guys that used to know what&#x27;s what have retired or died. There&#x27;s nobody left. It&#x27;s going to take another 30-40 years to replace them. The US doesn&#x27;t have the luxury of having those 30-40 years.
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lemonwaterlime超过 1 年前
The key topics missing from this article are management and culture. Manufacturing companies by and large are stubborn with outdated practices that haven’t kept up with the times. The number of mechanical engineers who switched to web development, for instance, because of poor pay and improper management is insane. And during the pandemic, even more either fled or were pushed out from lack of opportunity. It’s easy to blame these policies and say that industries aren’t connected, but when these firms are refusing to embrace new technologies and take calculated risks, they do this to themselves all by themselves.<p>They commonly keep employees using the simplest heuristics that someone at some point in the past developed which worked then, so why break it? And they push this mediocrity throughout the entire organization and industry. Then they swap out one failed CEO for the same person with a different name like a pair of gloves, wondering what ever happened as there was nothing more that could be done. Meanwhile their ageist management policies block out the insights of the young, all but ensuring that no new ideas are brought into the mix—all until it’s time for another bailout.
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onthecanposting超过 1 年前
I really don&#x27;t see Chinese-style whole government response with state-owned-enterprises and all happening in the US. That may not even work if it were possible. A viable domestic manufacturing sector is just not a goal of US decision makers (donors and kingmakers). At this point, career administration staff have been so fanatically selected for ideological loyalty that I don&#x27;t think Washington can accomplish much of anything outside of accounting gimmicks.
badrabbit超过 1 年前
In my very opinionated view, the concept of new company towns is missing. All the current efforts are around bringing jobs to people. Jobs are a side effect, things shouldn&#x27;t be done for the sake of jobs.<p>The plains of nebraska for example are an excellent place (again, opinionated) for an assembly plant like foxconn but american. Mainly because a crapton of freight via railways passes through there and plenty of undeveloped cheap land. Such factories have high shipping&#x2F;receiving volume and new towns with new cheap housing for potential workers is feasible.<p>Yuma is another great location because of it&#x27;s stable (sunniest in US) climate, proximity to mexico boarder and like with TSMC and Tuscon it is very disaster safe, right on I10 and close to CA (the US might starve if Yuma was destroyed! A lot of food processing there for these reasons).<p>Manufacturing at old towns and factories will have minimal competitive advantage.<p>Lastly, the US does not have a &quot;success at any cost&quot; mindset towards manufacturing as the fuel for economic success. It is very much an afterthought. A lot of this and many other issues are a result of political divisions.
vuln超过 1 年前
PE firms and Opiate Addiction gutted the US manufacturing industry over the last 30 years. It’s not hard to see, but since a significant portion of these workers are white men, no one blinks an eye.
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0xDEF超过 1 年前
Advanced manufacturing, R&amp;D, and high quality STEM education are three sides of the same coin. Shenzhen is the manufacturing capital of world because all three is tightly integrated.
narrator超过 1 年前
Has anyone asked Elon how to fix manufacturing in the U.S? Has he given anyone any ideas. The guy probably does as good or better job at manufacturing in the U.S than anyone else, and he has plenty of plants in foreign countries, so he can compare and contrast. Alas, the current administration hates the guy, and you can&#x27;t have a guy who&#x27;s clearly on the wrong team get to take credit for anything these days.<p>Edit: He did have something interesting to say about the &quot;idiot index&quot; which is the price of a component over the cost of the raw materials. If that&#x27;s very high, it means there are serious problems at that manufacturing organization.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;officechai.com&#x2F;stories&#x2F;elon-musk-idiot-index&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;officechai.com&#x2F;stories&#x2F;elon-musk-idiot-index&#x2F;</a><p>There&#x27;s so much inefficiency in American manufacturing. It cost SF $1 billion a mile to extend the subway for example.
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tim333超过 1 年前
Some of this isn&#x27;t as bad as it looks due to the way the accounting works. Take Apple products. They basically lead the world in laptops and phones, designed in America but because the manufacturing is done abroad it appears as a trade deficit even though most of the design and profit accrue to Apple shareholders.
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csomar超过 1 年前
&gt; Currency manipulation by the Japanese government further aided its exports, and the oil shock of 1973 was helpful to Japanese automakers given that they specialized in smaller, more efficient cars while the United States produced gas-guzzlers. Japan’s exports to the United States soared. U.S. automakers, in contrast, took too long to understand and then adjust their manufacturing technologies and techniques to the quality revolution.<p>This ushered the era of Japan (where Japan almost &quot;overtook&quot; the US as the first economy). You can draw lots of parallels to what&#x27;s happening with China now.<p>I am afraid, given the size of China, that it&#x27;ll not &quot;just&quot; reach US GDP but will skyrocket beyond it to the stars. The era of Western&#x2F;US dominance might be over and it&#x27;s inevitable.
willmadden超过 1 年前
It can’t be fixed with the current form of government and financial system, and no amount of central planning within the confines of the current system will fix this.<p>DC politicians redistributing money to advanced manufacturing will generate wealth for transnational corporations that siphon wealth out of the source economy. It will serve as a grift for those with political connections more than it will repair our industries. The playing field is not level because of regulatory capture and inefficient regulation, and the talent pool that can fill the roles has both dwindled in number and chosen other career paths.
bandrami超过 1 年前
The authors state that the US &quot;is not a global leader in the advanced manufacturing of the twenty-first century&quot; but don&#x27;t actually support that claim; we&#x27;re kind of supposed to take it for granted.
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thewanderer1983超过 1 年前
The problem is larger than Advanced Manufacturing. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com&#x2F;2023-03&#x2F;PB69-CriticalTechTracker-tab1.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com&#x2F;2023-03&#x2F;PB69...</a>
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g42gregory超过 1 年前
I think that the American manufacturing problems are beyond fixing at this point. Between higher energy costs, higher regulatory&#x2F;legal costs as well as numerous labor problems, it&#x27;s just not realistic to imagine that American manufacturing could be competitive.
Rooki超过 1 年前
Is forming State Owned Enterprises in the desired industries with attached R&amp;D Labs and apprenticeships impossible in the US?
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bell-cot超过 1 年前
Obvious Solution: Re-establish the military draft, but with a far smaller pool of potential draftees - and make sure the families of current &amp; recent members of Congress, Wall Street big-shots, Fortune 500 CxO&#x27;s, McKinsey consultants, and such are all assigned to serve in front-line &quot;meat shield&quot; battalions on the western shores of Taiwan, just south of Korea&#x27;s DMZ, etc.
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