Bayes' Theorem explained by Yudkowsky

Went back and re-read his tribute to his brother/exhortation to move forward science again. It's like <i>You and Your Research</i> on steroids. If that essay doesn't motivate you, I don't know what will. Insanely brave.

It's always surprising that most people are that bad at math.<p>.01 x .8 /(.01 x .8 + (.99 x 9.6 / 100)) ~= 0.0776 or 7.8%

This is my favorite writing by Yudkowsky: <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/faster-than-ein.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/05/faster-than-ein.html</a>

It bugs me a little that he starts using the phrase "prior probability" before defining it. If your vocabulary already included the word "priors", you probably wouldn't need a Bayes tutorial. :)

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Do significant digits matter in these sort of probability calculations?<p>Secondly, do we want doctors to tell us the probablility estimate that we have cancer or do we want doctors to tell us Yes or No?<p>Personally, I don't care what my probability score is if the answer is "No". Even if the answer was "Yes", an optimistic person would ignore the odds anyway.