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GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month

161 点作者 georgehill超过 1 年前

36 条评论

bryanlarsen超过 1 年前
AI is such a huge expectations dichotomy. For those of us used to the continual disappointment that pre-LLM AI was, the current crop of LLM's are amazing, mind blowing things. We start raving about them, so other people take a look expecting that modern LLM's are the greatest thing since sliced bread. They're not quite that, so we get HN comments complaining that AI sucks.
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bhouston超过 1 年前
Thus, the price of Github Copilot is going to go up, 2x to 5x.<p>For all of the criticism of Github Copilot, for a lot of developers (but not all), the value Github Copilot is incredibly high, much more than $20&#x2F;month.<p>The current rock bottom pricing is low compared to the value provided for those users.<p>As such there is a big opportunity to multiply the price here being charged. Probably an increase between 3x to 5x.<p>The excuse is because they are losing money, but the underlying reason is that the value it is providing is so high in terms of developer productivity.
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hesdeadjim超过 1 年前
The moment I can train Copilot on my codebase and improve its predictions, I’d gladly pay more than $20. Even now, I find that I can’t live without it simply as a slightly more intelligent auto-complete.
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asmor超过 1 年前
If Copilot loses this much, just imagine how much OpenAI is losing on non-paying users using ChatGPT.<p>Who&#x27;s gonna pay for this as soon as the VC money runs out?
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swexbe超过 1 年前
They&#x27;re trying to corner the market and betting on the running costs of these models going down substantially in the future.
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skilled超过 1 年前
From yesterday,<p><i>GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 a month per user</i> (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=37821756">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=37821756</a>) (45 points | 16 comments)
linuxftw超过 1 年前
Copilot is useless compared to chat-gpt4. There&#x27;s really no comparison. As far as the costs, it seems like transmitting things repeatedly would be more expensive than the chat model where you just transmit things when you want them.
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noodlesUK超过 1 年前
I feel like the centralisation of server resources for something like copilot doesn’t really make sense. Many (most) professional developers are working on beefy laptops. If ever there were a case to run these models client side, a software developer’s laptop is probably the ideal place. What are the specs that are needed to run inference on these models?
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monocasa超过 1 年前
Doesn&#x27;t copilot slurp up oodles of the code in your workspace for non corporate accounts? Is that data acquisition maybe worth the cost to Microsoft?<p>I know they have github, but tiny scripting glue tasks like copilot excels at aren&#x27;t the best represented on GitHub.
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aryadee超过 1 年前
GitHub Copilot is not using GPT-4 (yet)! I&#x27;m seeing a lot of people under the wrong impression.<p>For code completions it uses an improved version of Codex[1], and for chat beta (part of Copilot X), it uses 3.5-Turbo[2].<p>However, they&#x27;re claiming to have &quot;early adoption of OpenAI&#x27;s GPT-4&quot; for Copilot X on their marketing page[3], which is confusing&#x2F;deceptive. To be fair, it&#x27;s still in beta, but they should state outright what model you currently get if you sign up for it.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.blog&#x2F;2023-07-28-smarter-more-efficient-coding-github-copilot-goes-beyond-codex-with-improved-ai-model&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.blog&#x2F;2023-07-28-smarter-more-efficient-coding...</a><p>[2]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;orgs&#x2F;community&#x2F;discussions&#x2F;56975#discussioncomment-6086471">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;orgs&#x2F;community&#x2F;discussions&#x2F;56975#discussi...</a><p>[3]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;features&#x2F;preview&#x2F;copilot-x">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;features&#x2F;preview&#x2F;copilot-x</a>
habosa超过 1 年前
So the service costs MSFT an average of $30&#x2F;user&#x2F;month. So if they want to make a business with decent margins out of this, they&#x27;re going to need to charge $60&#x2F;user&#x2F;month or more.<p>That&#x27;s not too much if it&#x27;s adding a lot of value but it&#x27;s also definitely a lot of money. It would be the most expensive SaaS my team pays for (and we have a lot of subscriptions).
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namelosw超过 1 年前
The problem is that the industry has&#x27;t figured out how to properly pricing LLM applications yet.<p>Before LLM, it&#x27;s perfectly possible to spin up a SaaS on 5$ Digital Ocean VM and charge $4.99 per seat monthly. If you&#x27;re using low overhead techs like Go and SQLite you might get away pretty far with a decent user base.<p>But LLM is inheirently costly compared to those traditional apps. No matter if you&#x27;re calling OpenAI or DIY your own GPU cluster it&#x27;s gonna be way more expensive. Spin your own GPU might ended to be more expensive because utilization problems and upfront costs.<p>The subscription model was kind of the silver-bullet for SaaS but it&#x27;s probably not going to work well in the AI era.<p>OpenAI, Elevenlabs, Runway, and Midjourney: they have subscription model but the quota is strict and tight. The &quot;unlimited&quot; plan is simply pay-as-you-go.<p>Early wave of LLM products with unlimited subscription models like Github Copilot and Notion AI are probably pricing way too low. $7 or $10 is way too low to support heavy usage.<p>But charging $50 might scare most user away because it exceeded people&#x27;s expectation for SaaS. And probably still end up losing money. And hobby users may ended up paying too much for the core users - that will lead us back to sophisticated pricing tiers like Elevenlabs and Runway.<p>Are there alternatives? I dunno. Maybe implement bring-your-own-key properly? Like OAuth but for LLMs? It&#x27;s definitely interesting to see how things will turn out eventually.
ackbar03超过 1 年前
I have a small cloud based Ai image processing service running that&#x27;s still running (we did it before it was cool). The processing is currently done locally on a computer in my partners closet, but scaling it to that point, whilst ensuring it runs smoothly for multiple users with reasonable processing times was no joke.
bloopernova超过 1 年前
The article says Microsoft wants computers to one day have Neural Processing Units (NPU) like most have GPUs. If that led to faster suggestions for copilot, I&#x27;d be all for it.<p>Right now, a GPU <i>is</i> an NPU. Does anyone how an NPU would differ from a graphics card?
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siva7超过 1 年前
I&#x27;ve done my own startup calculations for this. You shouldn&#x27;t provide a heavily used openai wrapper below 30$&#x2F;month&#x2F;user. That will be likely a loss leader. At 46$&#x2F;month it starts getting profitable for me.
jpallen超过 1 年前
A lot of people are commenting about how gpt4 is better than copilot, both in terms of getting it to do exactly what you want and in the quality of response. I&#x27;ve also found this and so I wrote a simple VS Code coding assistant that uses gpt4 and let&#x27;s you be direct in asking what you want it to do: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;jpallen&#x2F;biggles">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;jpallen&#x2F;biggles</a>. Maybe it can be useful to some of you too.<p>It also supports voice, which is a fun way to code!
tristanb超过 1 年前
I use Copilot... Or rather I pay for it. I pretty much always end up using ChatGPT4. I honestly haven&#x27;t had a very good experience with Copilot. It never &quot;learns&quot; anything. It doesn&#x27;t remember where my imports are, it gives me the wrong paths all the time. Sure occasionally it will write a nice comment for me when I make a new prop, but other than that it&#x27;s not as good for writing code as GPT4, and its auto suggestions are pretty weak. Wondering if others have different opinions.
tandav超过 1 年前
Does anyone know vscode extension that can use OpenAI API to perform code completions like Copilot?<p>There are several ChatGPT-like UIs that you can self host and pay only for API and not for ChatGPT plus. For example, I&#x27;m using <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;Yidadaa&#x2F;ChatGPT-Next-Web">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;Yidadaa&#x2F;ChatGPT-Next-Web</a>. It would be nice to use Copilot in the same way.
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petercooper超过 1 年前
FWIW, a GitHub employee just said on stage at the AI Engineer Summit that this claim is &quot;not true&quot; and that it&#x27;s a roughly $100m ARR product (first keynote speaker in this stream: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=qw4PrtyvJI0">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=qw4PrtyvJI0</a>)
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ojkelly超过 1 年前
When I first used copilot a few months after it came out, I thought it was wildly undervalued—I’d pay $100&#x2F;m for the value and time saved.<p>It’s become such an integral part of my workflow, that until Zed got Copilot integration I couldn’t switch to it.<p>Of course I’d prefer to continue paying $10 a month.
Saline9515超过 1 年前
This is not surprising, the chat function is mind-blowing. It knows about your code, it is helpful, explains concepts, and is rarely wrong. It is the first time I&#x27;m genuinely impressed about an AI tool, and makes learning new frameworks very easy.
cabirum超过 1 年前
How came that usually privacy-minded hn crowd uses run-by-someone-else models so cheerfully and carelessly?<p>You do realize any data sent to MS&#x2F;openai&#x2F;anyone will be stored forever and probably be used against you in the (near) future?
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baby超过 1 年前
What’s remarkable to me is that when copilot launched there were a lot of people on HN saying it was not good. Now it seems like everybody has adopted it and can’t live without it.
SadWebDeveloper超过 1 年前
I would gladly pay for copilot 5 USD a month (its an specific use case IA), but the current price point 20 month is incredible expensive it only add costs if the developer you are hiring requires it to properly function... thats the only value it adds.<p>IMHO If you are a code monkey copilot makes you a 5x developer, 10x if you have 5+ years of experience on the business<p>Maybe selling tokens&#x2F;search could be benefitial for copilot, like only pay for what i use will be an interesting approach.
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empath-nirvana超过 1 年前
I would, without hesitation, pay $30&#x2F;mo for co-pilot. I would even consider paying $100&#x2F;mo for it.
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zackmorris超过 1 年前
Capitalism cracks me up. We live under this fantasy that everything we do can be turned into a profitable business. Even the government should be run like a business, right? Like somehow educating a child for 12+ years should be a profitable venture. Or housing the elderly. Or providing a basic service like water, sanitation or electricity that everyone uses at about the same rate. Surely we can stand on each other to turn a buck.<p>I think that AI will be the biggest loss leader ever invented. We&#x27;ll buy a robot one time for $10,000 that will perform $1 million of mental and physical labor over its lifetime. Except nobody will pay for that $990,000. There will just be this expectation of something for nothing, so the anticipated payment never comes. And it will happen so quickly, so completely, that we&#x27;ll wonder how it was ever possible to pay people to do all this free stuff.<p>No, the GitHub Copilot model of charging for AI services isn&#x27;t going to scale. People are going to open source AI and own it themselves and stop paying for goods and services. Why would they when the AI can provide everything they need? AI is the beginning of the end of money. The headline foretells the end of the era of artificial scarcity, because capitalism can&#x27;t compete with free.
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hm-nah超过 1 年前
I recently cancelled my GitHub CoPilot license. I prefer learning and co-developing with GPT-4.
nymalt超过 1 年前
Just one thing I hate about Copilot is how it needs to be updated two times a day.
tortoise_in超过 1 年前
Microsoft should only focus on windows at the end of day and keeps things as they are.
Gijs4g超过 1 年前
Interesting. What does this say about GPT-4? How much do they lose per User per Month?
throwaway4good超过 1 年前
Maybe the guys doing DDoS attack on Google should give MS&#x2F;Github a go?
LeicaLatte超过 1 年前
GitHub’s CoPilot is the most disappointing of AI products out there.
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vinni2超过 1 年前
And it’s free if you’re an educator or a student.
bluelightning2k超过 1 年前
Please don&#x27;t take my Copilot away!
archibaldJ超过 1 年前
hmm intriguing; I wonder how is Cursor&#x2F;Tabnine doing in this aspect<p>or are they suffering similiar lose?
ChrisArchitect超过 1 年前
[dupe]