America Is Headed Toward Collapse

As someone from Europe this is malarkey. The US is:<p>* Energy independent<p>* Democratic<p>* Highly educated<p>* Has the best demographics in the developed world<p>* Militarily untouchable<p>* Innovation central<p>Culture wars are a sideshow. For US to be on the brink of any real crisis there would need to be a super power alternative. There is none and it does not look like any is going to be in the next 30 years.<p>The US can only destroy itself. It is far from any such thing.

Is there some room to include the fact that the middle class has access to cutting edge technology - unprecedented medical advances - and incredible access to almost anything? College is expensive but full ivy league College courses are available for free online. Homeless people have cell phones (at least in America). Our society is more diverse than ever (and anywhere). Gay rights are at an all time high. Is it just about home prices? Don&#x27;t any of these other things matter when evaluating society?

The article states that two consistent causes of societal collapse are the impoverishment of large sections of the population and overproduction of elites. This two things remind me of one a passage from the Tao Te Ching, translation by Jane English:<p>Not exalting the gifted prevents quarreling.<p>Not collecting treasures prevents stealing.<p>Not seeing desirable things prevents confusion of the heart.<p>The wise therefore rule by emptying hearts and stuffing bellies,<p>by weakening ambitions and strengthening bones.<p>If people lack knowledge and desire,<p>then intellectuals will not try to interfere.<p>If nothing is done, then all will be well.

<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;ijzOx" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;ijzOx</a>

&gt; In the past 50 years, despite overall economic growth, the quality of life for most Americans has declined<p>I would like to see some citations for this because there are many things that make up quality of life, and many ways to measure them. The subsequent paragraphs talk about a decline in real wages for &quot;Americans who didn’t have a four-year college degree&quot;, but QoL is not all about wages. Consider the example of European countries who typically appear high up in QoL rankings despite having lower median wages.

Ray Dalio also believes America could be on the verge of decline due to debt, China, and the growing wealth gap<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;7TGJRzRSzL4?feature=shared" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;7TGJRzRSzL4?feature=shared</a>

When subjects like &quot;The Fourth Turning&quot; and &quot;Pluto in Aquarius&quot; align with a weird Jungian syncronicity, it only makes me more concerned for the future.

People have been calling for the collapse of the air conditioned nightmare(1) for decades. I am very optimistic that America will be just fine. In fact, if you&#x27;ll pardon me, I think everything that&#x27;s going on in Congress right now, everything going on on the street, is good for our democracy. We are facing tough questions and as a country we will answer them and move forward.<p>As we always have.<p>1. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Air-Conditioned_Nightmare" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Air-Conditioned_Nightmar...</a>

Haven’t read the full article, but I note with interest that this is by Peter Turchin, the same person who wrote <i>Secular Cycles</i>. I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve always liked Scott Alexander’s review of that book [0] and its sequel [1].<p>In particular, Turchin predicted in 2016, that 2020 would form the peak of social conflict in America. This strikes me as eerily close to what has actually happened…<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;08&#x2F;12&#x2F;book-review-secular-cycles&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;08&#x2F;12&#x2F;book-review-secular-cy...</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;09&#x2F;02&#x2F;book-review-ages-of-discord&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;09&#x2F;02&#x2F;book-review-ages-of-di...</a>

By Peter Turchin. Elite overproduction hypothesis. Also paywall.