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What drives this madness on small modular nuclear reactors?

54 点作者 jdkee超过 1 年前

10 条评论

mdorazio超过 1 年前
So many nuclear proponents, including a large number of people here on HN, make the mistake of looking at relative costs and capabilities of power generation sources from 10 or even 5 years ago and then forming positions based on that. As the article points out, this is just straight-up bad thinking.<p>Any new nuclear project is realistically going to take a minimum of 6 years to reach commercial production, compared to about 2 for a large-scale renewable + storage project. So any honest evaluation needs to look at the trends and project them out to 2030, and <i>then</i> form a conclusion about which is the better choice. In most (not all) cases, renewable + storage wins easily.
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gumby超过 1 年前
I think people get distracted by small, modular nukes we do have on spacecraft and the ones used in the navy for aircraft carriers and subs.<p>Those specialized applications get to ignore issues that are very important to terrestrial civilian application. For example certain kinds of maintenance is handled more frequently than is economically viable in non-military environments, while other kinds of maintenance (&amp; refueling perhaps?) are not required as the entire device is disposed of at the end of life.<p>Also they are surrounded at all times by extremely armed guards :-).<p>This is the same kind of overfitting you see from tech enthusiasts who, say, look at a CPU with a high clock speed and assume X and Y, not realizing all the other aspects that go into the design of a full system. Or wild zomg claims about so-called AI.
vasco超过 1 年前
&gt; Many of the individuals or groups would deny vociferously that the motivations and logical fallacies that I’m going to attribute to them are accurate, even as they would feel a frisson of cognitive dissonance that tells them something is not quite right. In most cases, these people and groups believe that they are correct and that their positions are rational and carefully thought through<p>A sad realization in life is realizing regardless of how right one can be, the ones who are wrong many times fall into this, moreover sometimes as groups, reinforcing each other.<p>A sadder thing is realizing you suffer from it too.
gary_0超过 1 年前
The article kind of answers its own question in 2 sentences:<p>&gt; But gigawatt scale reactors are easy to turn into bespoke engineering megaprojects. Custom engineering for every site foregoes economies of manufacturing scale.<p>My core impression of the SMR enthusiasm was that it would be really great if we had a few factories pumping out &quot;nuclear energy pods&quot; on an assembly-line, and then those modules could be plopped down anywhere and plugged into the grid. Energy problem solved.<p>The issues with the economic inefficiency of smaller reactors could be solved with a sprinkling of Technology Dust from the Innovation Fairy.<p>How about an equally starry-eyed idea: We build out the grid worldwide, and then just build one giant reactor complex per continent; we get nuclear economy of scale, but we don&#x27;t ship the reactors to different locations, we ship their energy output instead. As for any problems with economic inefficiency (or the limits of HVDC transmission lines) I again invoke the Innovation Fairy.
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viraptor超过 1 年前
For a post about how small reactors don&#x27;t make sense economically, there&#x27;s a lot of narrative and opinion and basically no useful numbers. You can spin any story&#x2F;justification for your idea about reactors, but if the you can&#x27;t base it on data, what&#x27;s the point?
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paulsutter超过 1 年前
Fusion will be practical long before the problems of fission are solved. Obviously photovoltaic is amazing and batteries are on a beautiful cost curve to help us with storage and there&#x27;s alway pumped water, etc<p>But fusion will take us to the stars, and depending on how small it can be, may help in lots of other applications
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upsidesinclude超过 1 年前
This whole argument hinges on believing the opinion of the writer, who tries to assure you that he is very informed and you don&#x27;t need any data to get in the way of the message.<p>While he may or may not be accurate in his assessment at this time, he manages to gloss over any number of historical factors that have brought us to this junction.<p>Continuing to invest in nuclear is a good idea. There is money to do so and yes, the military provides much of that. And they control an immense amount of fissile material. Wouldn&#x27;t it be great if there was a future where that material, which has been mined at great cost, refined at immense cost and handled at astounding cost could be used to benefit the populace that have afforded it?<p>The huge arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world only has one way to make its exit. I&#x27;d rather we continued to work on an alternative.
skglaofj超过 1 年前
It’s power of the other kind driving this. Nuclear materials are controllable militarily and therefore nuclear power is controllable, and controlled by the existing geopolitical power structure. “We can supply your energy but we need to also provide a small military base to secure it. And don’t upset us or your lights go off” is very different to abundant and freely available
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vlovich123超过 1 年前
I’m liberal, I agree with the right that nuclear power is the only path to replace nuclear, I agree with the left that climate change is a major problem and that nuclear power has risks. I disagree with the right heavily about the security risks of nuclear. They feel extremely overblown. But the track record of renewables is that they fail to offset fossil fuels in any meaningful way. We take it as an accomplishment when a single random day in a country is 100% renewable. Meanwhile France is nearly 100% fossil free energy every single day of the year. And when Germany cut back on nuclear, renewables fail to absorb that and fossil fuel use went up. So our choice is to focus on political problems and fix those but they feel intractable so people focus on the positives of renewables and because it’s “easier” (no messy &#x2F; scary political issues) but ignore the fundamental technical difficulties of using renewables to replace fossil fuels. Yeah sure, nuclear has lots of problems and risks. Most of the cost issues are self-imposed. Cleanup costs fail to be factored in for political reasons but at the same time it’s not trillions of dollars per plant and we also do have enough research to know there’s reasonable paths that we’ll get to of building reactors that can’t melt down.<p>re security concerns, take for example North Korea which has been nearly globally embargoed but yet still has built successful nuclear weapons. They struggle with ICBMs because that’s what it would take. By comparison, Iran has been subjected to all kinds of targeted military and covert action to sabotage their nuclear program. By all accounts those actions have kind of been successful in the sense that experts agree it’s going to take Iran longer to create those weapons, but it’s a question of if not when. That’s why I’m so frustrated by critics of Obama’s Iran deal. The 0 tolerance approach is not going to work and the Obama deal had the best concessions from Iran that we’re going to get - it’s not going to be better when Iran actually has nuclear weapons. And Iranians have AFAIK been very honest players in terms of at least trying to stick to the Iran nuclear deal even after Trump blew it up. The primary problem there is that Iran is a geopolitical enemy of Israel which complicates things a lot (a stronger Iran that a nuclear deal allowed for is a problem for other security issues in the region). But notice how none of those issues have anything to do with enrichment capabilities of civilian nuclear reactors. And generating fissile material is not the bottleneck for building those weapons. So it’s all silly FUD-driven BS we pick up from movies and imagining things than actual problems on the ground.
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NoMoreNicksLeft超过 1 年前
There is a small, but influential component of the &quot;oh my gerdz, carbon bad!&quot; crowd that hate nuclear. They&#x27;re careful not to argue on the merits, as they&#x27;d be exposed as the ridiculous supervillains that they are.<p>They don&#x27;t want humanity to have absurd amounts of energy. They believe in an ascetic philosophy where, should there be any humans still around at all, they should be suffering with whatever the minimum amount of energy is that they can get away with. They don&#x27;t want you to be able to drive anywhere. Small little walkable cities, that no one can hope to escape from.
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