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Use Probability Models to Predict Pebble Sales (and win a Pebble)

34 点作者 pospischil大约 13 年前

3 条评论

mattmillr大约 13 年前
I seem to recall reading somewhere that most kickstarter projects get the bulk of their support at the very beginning and end, with a "trough" in the middle. It seems like a good prediction model would take this into account, perhaps by integrating data from a number of similar projects that have finished funding (big-$$ games, other hardware projects, etc.)
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pdhborges大约 13 年前
If I make the best guess by just looking at the current chart without using any tool/model do I qualify for the prize?
anuraj大约 13 年前
My guess is $10m. We shall see what we shall see. I will extrapolate post facto.