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Americans don't believe middle class can afford homes

73 点作者 safaa1993超过 1 年前

26 条评论

atourgates超过 1 年前
They&#x27;re not wrong.<p>Check out the graphs on this page: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.longtermtrends.net&#x2F;home-price-median-annual-income-ratio&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.longtermtrends.net&#x2F;home-price-median-annual-inco...</a><p>The Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio is higher than it&#x27;s been in 70 years.<p>Between 1965 and the year 2000, it fluctuated between 3.5 and 4.5. At the top of the housing bubble in 2008, it hit 6.8. Right now it&#x27;s at 7.6. And I don&#x27;t believe the housing price data this index uses (from S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index) considers the cost mortgage interest rates, so the <i>actual</i> cost of ownership is even higher (relative to a low interest rate environment) than this data shows.<p>The Home Price to Personal Average Income Ratio is a bit different, but tells the same broad picture.
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burlesona超过 1 年前
We spent 40 years believing that house prices were fine because the debt load didn&#x27;t matter because interest rates would go down forever. Prices are based on the seller extracting the maximum ability to pay from the buyer, so payments were effectively fixed, and every drop in interest rates was perfectly offset by an increase in the purchase price.<p>Then we hit interest zero, there was nowhere left to go. Now we&#x27;re finally back to more historically normal and healthy interest rates, and it has broken the housing market.<p>We&#x27;re going to have to have a cultural shift towards housing as shelter, not investment. We have to increase supply to meet demand. And we&#x27;re going to have to pay more attention to driving down the actual dollar cost of homes, not just the monthly payment.
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betterprojects超过 1 年前
We can barely agree on what the definition of middle class is. A quick search shows one source quoting anywhere between $48,500 to $145,500 a year which is a very broad range. Part of this is cost of living varies significantly in different parts of the US. With the current average salary, average home price, and current interest rates, people aren&#x27;t wrong that housing is very unaffordable in most places.
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dsr_超过 1 年前
Median household income (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.census.gov&#x2F;library&#x2F;publications&#x2F;2023&#x2F;demo&#x2F;p60-279.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.census.gov&#x2F;library&#x2F;publications&#x2F;2023&#x2F;demo&#x2F;p60-27...</a>): $74580<p>Median house price, per article: $388,000.<p>Today&#x27;s average 30 year fixed mortgage rate is 7%. Assuming a 10% down payment, 0.5% to private mortgage insurance, and the usual bits and bobs, that approximates a $2800&#x2F;month payment, or $33600 per year, which is 45% of that median income.<p>That&#x27;s not affordable, by anyone&#x27;s definition.
game_the0ry超过 1 年前
(I posted this before -- <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=36961000">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=36961000</a>)<p>I grew in upper middle class southern California. I work in tech for the last 7 years. My parents house went from $500K when they bought in 1995 to +$3M today. If my math is right, that would mean the all-in payment (principal, interest, taxes) would be around $20,000&#x2F;month at today&#x27;s rate. Assume you do not want to spend more than 1&#x2F;3 of your income on housing, your household would need to make $720,000&#x2F;year.<p>Nominally, I make a lot more than my parents did at their peak, but in real terms, I can&#x27;t afford a home in the neighborhood I grew up in.<p>Anecdotally, the only people I know that can afford to live in my old neighborhood are young people who get help from their parents or people who bought way before covid and rolled up their existing equity into their new home purchases. Among the upper middle class people I know, no one can afford that area or they are not interested bc they think the cost is not worth it.<p>What&#x27;s going to happen to the firefighters, cops, and teachers in that area?
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lucidguppy超过 1 年前
Feedback systems with long delays are going to be easier to destabilize than systems with short feedback cycles.<p>There&#x27;s a lot of &quot;memory&quot; in housing prices.<p>Houses are just about the hardest item to build in America today. You need land, and you cannot make them in a factory. All cost cutting measures have been in materials (to the point where quality is degrading).<p>Regulations push new players out of the market - increasing prices.<p>Housing is a social prestige item like health care and education - so that will drive costs up too.<p>The US will have 100m more people in the coming decades no matter what - so demand will always be high.<p>Solution? There is none. It&#x27;s how the power elite want it.
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bovermyer超过 1 年前
I can afford to buy a house, and I&#x27;m middle class.<p>The trouble is, that house would be in the middle of nowhere, with Starlink being the only viable internet option. Nowhere else is going to have house prices under $200k for something family-livable.
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the_gastropod超过 1 年前
There&#x27;s a recent Redfin analysis on this. On average, only 16% of homes were affordable for households earning a median income [1]. It&#x27;s wild how broadly these affordability numbers vary, and just how much less affordable homes are today than they were just 2 years ago.<p>Ohio must either be a very undesirable state to live in, or they&#x27;re doing something right to keep house prices relatively reasonable: 3 of the top 5 most affordable cities are in Ohio!<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.redfin.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;share-of-homes-affordable-new-2023&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.redfin.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;share-of-homes-affordable-new-20...</a>
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zwieback超过 1 年前
If you use the metric &quot;price per square foot per person adjusted for inflation&quot; it&#x27;s not as bad. Part of the problem: household size has been shrinking and house size has been increasing steadily. That effect combined with the decrease of &quot;good blue collar jobs&quot; causes the crunch.
SubiculumCode超过 1 年前
Well...they are kinda right. 3k a month mortgage when the interest rate was low, now I imagine it would be closer to 4k per month. Housing prices might not be growing as fast but I haven&#x27;t seen them dropping.
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hasty_pudding超过 1 年前
People jump to interest rates but also forget to include skyrocketing property tax and insurance rates.<p>You need at least another 200k on top of the home value to have recurring income to pay those bills annually.
whatindaheck超过 1 年前
I just turned 30. If I can’t afford a house in the next 10 years I’m going to be a lifelong renter.<p>Why get a 30 year mortgage at 40, to only pay it off at 70 and then die in two decades? It feels like the wrong thing to do but…I really don’t know how else to look at it.<p>Sure. I could afford a house today where I grew up. But I’d have to surround myself with the <i>highly</i> undesirable culture (in my opinion) in those places. To put it nicely.
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xnx超过 1 年前
How do we make sense of less being spent on mortgage as a percent of income than has been historically? <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;MDSP" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;MDSP</a><p>If you financed during low rates, you&#x27;re OK, but if you&#x27;re trying to buy a house now, you&#x27;re it is hard?
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sokoloff超过 1 年前
If 66% of households are in owner-occupied housing, how small is this middle class that can’t afford homes?<p>Is the median (or even 40th percentile) household not middle class?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;RHORUSQ156N" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;RHORUSQ156N</a>
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floxy超过 1 年前
So are high prices not an incentive for house builders to ramp up and build more houses? What is the breakdown of costs to building a new house between labor, materials, land, permits&#x2F;inspections, construction loan burden, etc.? Is anyone working on tech to reduce construction costs of new houses? There are more out-there things like 3D-printing structures. But how about more conventional&#x2F;mundane things. How hard would it be to have a robot that could lay asphalt shingles and staple them in place? Maybe mudding&#x2F;taping sheetrock would be not-too-difficult to automate? I&#x27;m assuming the raw materials are pretty well automated at the factory (things like sheet rock, 2x4&#x27;s at the saw mill, plywood, etc.)
skepticATX超过 1 年前
In most ways the lives of middle class Americans are better than that of their counterparts 30 years. We have an idealized view of what prior generations’ middle class looked like.<p>Home ownership is the one exception. We need to build denser, and we need to build actual communities that are livable without needing to drive 30 minutes to go to the grocery store.<p>The middle class of today has every right to be infuriated at our housing inaction.
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karaterobot超过 1 年前
Well, yeah. I live in Seattle, where the median household income is $115k, which would mean a home would have to cost around $350k to be affordable, given the 30% of income rule of thumb. The median home price in Seattle is $816k.<p>Hmm, now that I think about it, that&#x27;s still affordable if you can afford a modest $500k down payment. Most couples I know who both make around $60k a year have at least that much in the bank. Never mind please disregard, everything is actually fine.
firefoxd超过 1 年前
I can&#x27;t afford a home, even though I&#x27;m considered a high earner. But always ask, how much is an affordable house? In California the answer can vary between 200k to a million dollars. Travel across the states and the range continues to stretch.<p>I can&#x27;t afford a decent house in California without disrupting my children schooling and schedule. But then you may ask, what is a decent house?
soggybread超过 1 年前
I&#x27;ve been saving up for the past 8 years and have got a pretty decent deposit built up but the costs of houses in my area are just so expensive that the deposit barely makes a scratch in the overall mortgage costs and I wouldn&#x27;t be able to afford the mortgage, seems like the more I save up the higher the housing prices go. It absolutely amazes (and infuriates) me that some of the houses I see going for 400-500k now went for 150-200k 10 years ago.
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NDizzle超过 1 年前
With sliding definitions of both &quot;middle class&quot; and &quot;afford&quot; I believe this answer will always be &quot;no&quot;.
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nine_zeros超过 1 年前
When assets make more money than labor, the &quot;middle class&quot; that is dependent on labor is really the poor class.
monological超过 1 年前
Because they can&#x27;t as a result of private equity firms and hedge funds buying houses for investment purposes. Without legislation, people are going to be renting for the rest of their lives like modern day serfs.
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cykros超过 1 年前
What defines them as middle class then?<p>It seems more like &quot;Americans believe middle class has shrunk, drastically.&quot;
iancmceachern超过 1 年前
It&#x27;s because they can&#x27;t, the value has been extracted up
dsaavy超过 1 年前
&quot;believe&quot; is a funny word to use for a mathematical equation
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tennisflyi超过 1 年前
Why would they?