EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

All the big blocks: EU, US, South Korea, Taiwan, and China assume that their subsidy policies will expand their market share.<p>Obviously they cannot all be right.<p>The only that I think is given that will expand its global market share is China. Paradoxically because of the US sanctions and the fact that it relies so much on imports presently.

The EU is simply too scared to actually put it&#x27;s foot down.<p>If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have at least one of their fabs here in the EU.<p>But they won&#x27;t. In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries.<p>Edit: For clarity, I&#x27;m not suggesting banning the export of ALL machines to outside the EU. I&#x27;m just saying they could force companies to <i>also</i> have at least one big fab inside the EU, for geopolitical purposes.

I think it might not be completely unrealistic, after all, the goal of the Chips act is to support, to promote investments in the semiconductor industry. There are currently 7 factories in construction and 8 more in planning stages. This info is from December 2022, so by now I will assume something is already finished or in the final stages and possibly more plans have been made.<p>Also, setting high goals might not be a bad thing, even if you don&#x27;t reach them you might still get far and do enough change to make a significant impact on something.

As a knowledge worker who immigrated to the Netherlands in 2022 and also lives in Eindhoven, these insights and discussions are super interesting to me. Unlike most of my nearby expat peers, I didn&#x27;t move here to work at ASML or Philips, but now that I&#x27;m here, it&#x27;s undeniable; the appeal of working for such companies is huge.<p>Obviously, companies want to make money, but the goals of the government have somewhat been at odds with funding growth and innovation in this sector because of some resentment on the ground from citizens. Tax legislation is all over the place and it&#x27;s becoming more and more expensive to hire experts from around the world. I understand the sentiment to start hiring at home, but at a certain point, you have to take stock of what is available and get to work with what tools you have. Invest in education for your local population (lots of cuts in the past two decades) but don&#x27;t punish individuals and companies trying to get work done and benefit your economy.<p>The infrastructure is basically all in place for Europe to foster its own Silicon Valley, with homegrown production to boot!, but it will come down to politics to make it a reality. These goals are good baby steps, but they need to ramp up quick if the EU is serious about becoming a global competitor.

Bert Hubert has a great series of posts about European Innovation &amp; Technical Capabilities which cover this whole topic very well, here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;berthub.eu&#x2F;articles&#x2F;posts&#x2F;european-innovation-and-capabilities&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;berthub.eu&#x2F;articles&#x2F;posts&#x2F;european-innovation-and-ca...</a>

Random aside, but I love this news site. It&#x27;s oldschool in the best of ways.

This is an existential goal, so what if it doesn&#x27;t appear realistic.<p>Satisfying natural gas demand without The Pipe was also unrealistic.

&gt; According to SEMI, China will have 8.6 million 8 inch equivalent wpm capacity this year, Taiwan will have 5.7 million wpm, Korea will have 5.1 million wpm, Japan will have 4.7 million wpm, the USA will have 3.1 million wpm, Europe will have 2.7 million wpm, and S.E.Asia will have 1.7 million wpm.<p>In the not quite unrealistic scenario of tensions between China and US increasing, with China possibly annexing Taiwan, it is clear that chips will have to come from Europe, US, Japan and maybe South Korea for the Western market. I think most of these investments are considering that scenario, and then they have to tweak the numbers and make unrealistic estimates to sell that idea as a regular business plan.

Not something new.<p>In 2000 the EU Lisbon strategy announce that it would be &quot;the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion&quot;, by 2010

This can become very realistic by 2025 even. Just poach the brains at ASML, shower them with money (you know those fucking 50 millions bonuses that shitty CEO&#x27;s enjoy nowadays), give them free hand for all decisions (both tech creativity and management) and voila! - goal achieved. Doubt will happen since this &quot;goal&quot; smells more like another &quot;it&#x27;s electoral year, let&#x27;s make some noise in the press&quot; rather than an actual objective.

Amyone know what wpm units are?<p>Wafers per month?

But Europe has ASML and Zeiss.

How much does a chip fab cost? Internet says $10-20B [cost]<p>The last paragraph says they &quot;would need about a dozen new fabs to be built and in full volume production by 2030&quot;<p>max out 12*20 = $240B, but they say total cost $500B. Supply chain really on par with fab cost? Hm.<p>[cost] - ChatG estimates $10-20 for SOTA on par with TSMC<p>- <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quora.com&#x2F;How-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-semiconductor-fabrication-plant-or-wafer-fab-lab-like-Intel-s-FABs" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quora.com&#x2F;How-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-semic...</a><p>- transitively sourced to a &quot;third-party analysis by IBS&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.granitefirm.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;us&#x2F;2023&#x2F;04&#x2F;29&#x2F;cost-of-chip-foundry&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.granitefirm.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;us&#x2F;2023&#x2F;04&#x2F;29&#x2F;cost-of-chip-...</a>

This is most likely going to fail.<p>Just like how the EU finance a hundreds of millions of dollars for a Google competitor that we haven&#x27;t heard of today. [1]<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;uncategorized&#x2F;2007&#x2F;07&#x2F;eu-approves-166-million-in-funding-for-google-competitor&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;uncategorized&#x2F;2007&#x2F;07&#x2F;eu-approves-16...</a>

Politicians setting unrealistic goals? Well I never….

The US has what, 10%, according to that.

&gt; The goal of the EU’s $43 billion Chips Act of achieving a 20% world market share for European producers by 2030<p>The only feasible solution I could think of is let Taiwan joined the EU.

So you don’t have to click through:<p>“ The goal of the EU’s $43 billion Chips Act of achieving a 20% world market share for European producers by 2030”

EU has no money for anything. We&#x27;re &quot;commies&quot;.<p>ASML already announced they&#x27;re leaving the Netherlands. No 100% with those words, but they already know where they&#x27;re going.

You cannot simply propel industry with windmills. So leftist Europeans pipe dream