California EV sales are falling

Of course. There was novelty, a tech boom and governments doing everything they could to induce people to buy them. All of those things are diminished. California was ground zero, because of climate, the business and liberal policies.<p>I&#x27;ve always been a pessimist on the short term growth estimates of EVs, they didn&#x27;t make sense to me. $35,000 cars (with subsidies) aren&#x27;t really <i>cheap</i> cars. You can talk about how much maintenance EVs save, and yet <i>the data</i> says eg Teslas (the best of the best) have higher annual ownership costs than the competitors. You aren&#x27;t really going to save money buying a Model 3 over a Honda Civic. That&#x27;s a fact.<p>But, EVs aren&#x27;t going anywhere, they&#x27;ll only keep improving.

These EV-bait articles are ridiculous. The data tells the opposite story. Quarter, total registrations that quarter, percentage of cars sold that are EVs.<p><pre><code> 4Q22, 1Q23, 2Q23, 3Q23, 4Q23 76501, 87816, 102991, 100151, 89933 19.0%, 20.5%, 21.8%, 22.3%, 21.1% </code></pre> California EV sales were up significantly in 2023. They had a great 2023 compared to 2022. YoY Q4 23 sales are up almost 20%.<p>Yeah, there&#x27;s a big absolute drop Q4 23, but it&#x27;s still up a lot YoY. But a small percentage drop. It&#x27;s simple, fewer cars were sold by everyone in Q4 2023 regardless of engine.<p>What the article says is that compared to the most amazing sales ever, sales are down a little, but still astronomically better than ever.<p>The sales of almost every model of EV are up astronomically.<p>Raw data available here <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cncda.org&#x2F;news&#x2F;california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-year-end-2023-auto-outlook-report&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cncda.org&#x2F;news&#x2F;california-new-car-dealers-associ...</a>

I just bought an ICE car although I was considering a Tesla. Reasons:<p>- I have no idea what is going to happen with electric rates and no confidence in PG&amp;E or the state to manage electricity provision or rates in a sane fashion.<p>- I don&#x27;t qualify for the EV subsidy which makes ICE cars more attractive in terms of cost.<p>- I consider gas cars more robust in the face of natural disasters or sudden need to get far out of the Bay Area for whatever reason (zombie attack).<p>- Avoids the complexity of figuring out a home charging solution or how to change to an optimal one of the N electricity pricing plans.

EVs have a used car problem. They absolutely get decimated by depreciation. So total cost of ownership is higher than would otherwise be<p>And California&#x27;s EV sales requirements means that manufacturers have been dumping bad&#x2F;unprofitable cars into the market for years. Many of these cars barely function in colder weather, so they don&#x27;t propagate out to other parts of the country.

I have multiple friends in the Bay Area regretting getting an EV. Broken chargers, power outages, and waiti no in lines seems to the the main complaint.<p>I also just read the federal government is relaxing rules to give infrastructure and manufacturers to catch up<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theverge.com&#x2F;2024&#x2F;2&#x2F;18&#x2F;24076585&#x2F;biden-emission-rules-relaxed-pollution-auto-industry-evs" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theverge.com&#x2F;2024&#x2F;2&#x2F;18&#x2F;24076585&#x2F;biden-emission-r...</a>

I don&#x27;t find it super surprising. I mean these are luxury products during a period of severe inflation and economic trouble (some are doing just fine, but sectors (hi video games) are experiencing extreme economic trauma).<p>Is this really just an EV issue or are luxury cars in general seeing headwinds? I&#x27;d be interested to see data on that.

<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;0nUcq" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;0nUcq</a>

Electricity is more expensive than gas in CA.

There are even signs that Californians may be growing tired of Tesla — or at least weary of its outspoken chief executive, Elon Musk

&quot;But there are fast chargers everywhere now! Tesla is winning, and this is just the beginning of EVs!&quot;<p>Sorry, I can&#x27;t help but anticipate these canned responses every time this topic appears.<p>EVs aren&#x27;t affordable enough in 2024 (no, bro; getting a loan isn&#x27;t affording it) and the infrastructure to support most cars being EVs simply isn&#x27;t there. In fact, it may never be there. Even in California, public garages may have something like 5% of its spots support charging, and these spots are quickly crowded these days. To get even half of public parking spaces to have chargers would be expensive and strain the power grid, which even the governor indirectly admits is inadequate for widespread use of EVs. People know this unconsciously and make the practical decision of buying an ICV.<p>Tesla also sucks all the oxygen out of the EV room and gives EVs in general an increasingly bad name. So many white Teslas are on the road now that there is no longer any cachet in owning one. It is kncreasingly coming off like a Toyota Carolla. No one is impressed anymore, which is bad for the crows that buys them to look cool. Not a single Tesla owner I have talked to trusts any of the automatic driving or parking features, and I have heard many stories from people being put in to dangerous scenarios by these vehicles. Elon&#x27;s public persona isn&#x27;t helping at this point, to say the least.

EVs are great, but they are a misdirection, if we want to meet climate and pollution goals, we must have a lot more street and ICE rail.