Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

I'm heartened to see the comments here because they seem to support what I've slowly been realizing, which is that nobody knows what will happen next. There will always be a steady stream of people telling you both that the sky is falling and that we're on the upswing. As far as we can detect there's a near equal probability of either being true. Writers have their own biases and economic homeostasis is dependent on both extreme perspectives coexisting.

The performance of the stock market is more related to the money printing by the federal reserve than anything else. Modern economics seems to deny this, and thus will make articles like this.

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if technology continues to improve productivity, then the market will continue to rise accordingly.

Experts predict &#x27;good times will not last&#x27;, and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works. Stock prices seemed overextended in 1996 and yet would go up for another 4 years.

I think the warnings in this article are reasonable if you don’t think there’s transformative tech around the corner that is going to lead to huge societal changes. And even if there is a big productivity boost from AI or anything else, the winners and losers will be scattered around in an unpredictable way, you could still lose a fortune on the index funds

Here&#x27;s the playbook:<p>* Predict that the good times won&#x27;t last * When the economy is stable, keep posting that the bad times are around the corner * Repeat until an economic situation occurs (it does not matter how long, just keep repeating) * When an economic situation finally occurs, then say: &quot;See. I predicted this.&quot;<p>Congrats, you are now an economist.

Lol, I was getting bearish but this article makes me bullish

No government wants a recession on their watch so printing goes on and markets keep going up

The stock market in America just seems to have the same function as the property market in China, it&#x27;s the primary thing everyone dumps their wealth in. If one looks at stock market capitalization versus real economic output the ratio keeps creeping up. So either there&#x27;s some miracle returns in the future or it&#x27;s just more and more divorced from the fundamentals.