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"AI will cure cancer" misunderstands both AI and medicine

149 点作者 pratnala大约 1 年前

40 条评论

yashap大约 1 年前
I do think AI has a chance to make healthcare, for cancer and other diseases, a lot more proactive.<p>Even though we know prognosis is much better for cancer, and many other diseases, if you catch it early, we do essentially nothing to catch it early. My understanding is that this is because:<p>1. Administering regular MRIs, blood panels, etc. is expensive, in terms of the initial data collection<p>2. It’s also expensive, in terms of getting healthcare professionals to analyze the results<p>3. People often get the analysis wrong, in terms of both false negatives and false positives<p>4. False positives can lead to even more scans, analysis, etc., costing even more money<p>It does seem possible to me that specialized AI could get much better than humans at interpreting this data, doing it very cheaply (solving problem 2) with far fewer false negatives and false positives (solving 3 and 4). And it’s even possible that AI powered robotics gets great at collecting data in the first place, bringing down the cost of problem 1.<p>Basically, “AI invents cures for different types of cancer” seems like a moonshot, but “AI makes proactive medical scanning cheap and effective, thus greatly improving cancer outcomes” seems like a real possibility.<p>While we have some proactive screening for some types of cancer, the status quo for many types of cancer&#x2F;patients is “wait until the cancer has spread enough that the patient is experiencing significant symptoms, with no systematic way to detect cancer early.” This is clearly not great. We’re accepting this for practical reasons today, but I do think AI has a significant chance to greatly improve the status quo here.
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mmaunder大约 1 年前
I have the utmost respect for the work that Jeremy and team and Fast.ai have accomplished but in this post Rachel is railing against the free market, bugs in software and preexisting biases in humans to create an incredibly cynical and unrelated cocktail.<p>There are many things broken about our world. We should work hard to fix them. But the promise of AI as a research tool to create the kinds of breakthroughs that humans aren’t capable of is undeniable.<p>Footnote: I think the context of her thinking is very much around the categorization and management of patients, which doesn’t necessarily relate to “AI will cure cancer”.
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_xerces_大约 1 年前
I dislike these articles that end up being written with a leftist bias that AI is already being used to [purposely] control and marginalize people. There are definite inequalities in society including in medicine and these biases I am sure make it into training data. However, while we should be watchful, I don&#x27;t think there is a conscious decision by &quot;the man&quot; to purposely put certain groups down using AI. AI researchers themselves and doctors are a pretty diverse group.
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skepticATX大约 1 年前
The predominate view of AI is that it is essentially magic. Which of course couldn’t be further from the truth.<p>But I find these arguments much easier to understand if you look at it through that lens. Of course magic can cure cancer because… it’s magic!
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randcraw大约 1 年前
The article completely misses the essential mechanism behind the advancement of science, like cures for disease. Advancing science is not about making better use of the info you have. It&#x27;s about gathering NEW info you didn&#x27;t have before and then using it to propose a novel mechanism of action or a hypothesis leading to a better theory. But AI cannot gather new info. Only better sensors can do that. Without gathering better info, even an infinite increase in smarts can&#x27;t move the needle in science.<p>If the info you need lies in genomics but all you have is images, no amount of cognition can bridge that gap.<p>AI has seen some success in <i>detecting</i> disease (diagnosis) but none at all in creating new treatments or cures. Future use of AI likely can help guide or optimize an existing therapy (e.g. chemotherapy) by detecting or discriminating feedback faster than a human can. But invention or discovery? No. AI as we know it today has shown no ability to advance the knowledge frontier beyond what the facts fed in by its teacher, nor any signs it ever will.
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carbocation大约 1 年前
One related publication that I thought would have fit well into the comment about disparate pain treatment is this[1] from Ziad Obermeyer&#x27;s group. They found that when they trained a model using patient pain and knee X-rays, much of the disparity in symptoms could be accounted for by findings from the X-rays themselves. It&#x27;s a nice example of where using the patients&#x27; symptoms and objective data may actually outperform current medical standards, which fits with her participatory comments in the final paragraph.<p>1 = <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41591-020-01192-7" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41591-020-01192-7</a>
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pama大约 1 年前
In my not so humble opinion, AI <i>will</i> help medicine and <i>will</i> accelerate the design of new cancer therapies. Curing all possible forms of cancer almost seems like a red herring, given how fragile the human cells are, and how these cells generally become more fragile with respect to becoming cancerous as we age. However, better drug therapies will eventually make cancer a more manageable condition for a large fraction of the population and hopefully for everyone in the long term. I am sure the realities of the current health care system will be dramatically different than those of healthcare in 100 years from now. I agree with Rachel that patient led medical research is a very important area that is greatly aided by AI and will have an impact in medicine.
realharo大约 1 年前
The article, while talking about some very real problems, seems to be completely unrelated to the question of whether or not AI is likely to have that capability in the near&#x2F;mid future (which is what the title implies).
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htk大约 1 年前
&quot;There is already a clear pattern in which AI is used to centralize power and harm the marginalized.&quot;<p>Too bad this was in the last paragraph or so, it could&#x27;ve spared me from reading the rest if it was in the beginning.
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Peregrine1大约 1 年前
Was expecting a deep dive into cancer therapeutics and startups working in the space.<p>This is not that.<p>very misleading title given how diverse AI applications are in medicine.
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mchusma大约 1 年前
If I understand the article, it’s that if you keep everything the same and simply replace ai for human doctors, then you won’t have better outcomes. Basically, you sometimes need multiple diagnostics and actually need to get scans and medical imagery to detect issues. These are all directly improved by AI. AI should make diagnosis cheaper and more effective, with less bias. MRIs should cost 1&#x2F;10th as much as we increase the throughput of machines with AI (as several people are working on) and reduce the need for expensive human labor.<p>It’s the lowering of cost that feels like the revolution in healthcare. AI should enable nearly free ways of mining noisy signals in the body could catch issues. Smart toilets, mirrors, scans, etc. all help.
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incangold大约 1 年前
Sad to hear of Ilene Ruhoy’s experience here.<p>She is a wonderful clinician who has enormously helped other patients with complex diagnostic paths and with diagnoses that are severely neglected.
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JSavageOne大约 1 年前
Such a bloated, meandering, poor written article. Just get to the point. Gave up halfway through and author still hadn&#x27;t addressed the title.
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renewiltord大约 1 年前
My dad’s an orthopaedic trauma surgeon. A friend was curious if his knee injury outcomes could be predicted from the radiologist’s report. So I supplied that plus X-rays and description of condition and situation that caused it to ChatGPT-4 (the early days version) to see if it would describe everything correctly and say what actions should be taken and then sent that to my dad for validation. He said it was spot on.<p>He then asked what it would say for the prognosis. Also again spot on.<p>So there’s things it can do well, for certain. I’m of the opinion that if we manage to scale this machine it will create novel science.<p>In any case, the two complaints expressed in the article ( inappropriate comprehension of patient problems and inequality) are both actually better with LLMs. The patience and understanding of an LLM cannot be beaten. Once we fix the context window, and once again unshackle this machine from ridiculous chains that safetyists have put it in, we will improve patient care.<p>Maybe they won&#x27;t cure cancer, but a host of problems will be taken care of.
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Kalanos大约 1 年前
Cancer is here to stay as long as organic DNA is the source code of molecular biology. The combination of data gathering and AI will help accelerate every step of drug development to make cancer more manageable, but we still need to think in terms of 50+ years for serious progress. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;key.bio" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;key.bio</a>
rafaelero大约 1 年前
Bad articles like this is the reason why I keep buying Nvidia shares.
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qrian大约 1 年前
[Docters still use pagers](<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ferd.ca&#x2F;notes&#x2F;rhip-doctors-and-pagers.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ferd.ca&#x2F;notes&#x2F;rhip-doctors-and-pagers.html</a>) and [put password in post-it notes on the device](<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ferd.ca&#x2F;notes&#x2F;paper-you-want-my-password-or-a-dead-patient.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ferd.ca&#x2F;notes&#x2F;paper-you-want-my-password-or-a-dead-p...</a>) not because the new technology have no value, but the system it brings often fails to account for the reality, aka existing systems.<p>The &#x27;what AI is trying to solve is not the problem&#x27; viewpoint of this article is also in the same vein, in that current AI discourse does not account for our society and systems.<p>Unfortunately as a non-specialist techno-optimist, I can&#x27;t help but view it as a problem to be solved.
ummonk大约 1 年前
I don&#x27;t see any reason to believe that AGI or even existing LLMs will be worse in these respects than the doctors of dumb algorithms mentioned in the article. If anything, I&#x27;d expect AI models to have potential to help mitigate the kinds of issues described.
luke-stanley大约 1 年前
Alphafold is not mentioned in the article, I didn&#x27;t notice anything especially related to it mentioned in it either. I think Alphafold is a pretty insightful as a mental model, for thinking about how AI might help with curing cancers.
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passion__desire大约 1 年前
Actually many people think removing humans completely when they think of AI medicine. But I believe in AI that can provide helpful suggestions and narrow down the causes.<p>Here&#x27;s an example of youtuber [0] who got helped by Ada[1] which suggested she might have endo given her description of symptoms which countless doctors failed to narrow down.<p>[0] This calculation tells you your chances of being sick <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=KzA9VATcZhY" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=KzA9VATcZhY</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ada.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ada.com&#x2F;</a>
bitwize大约 1 年前
AI (as we talk about it today) is statistics.<p>Better statistical models will help us identify diseases, and maybe molecules we can use to fight those diseases.<p>But &quot;AI&quot; is not magic sauce you can slather on to a problem to get a solution. It&#x27;s going to take statistics-savvy medical professionals, and medicine-savvy data professionals, working together. We&#x27;ve complicated things to bring solutions within reach that might&#x27;ve not been within reach before, so we&#x27;re going to have to be smarter about how we apply these new tools.
qgin大约 1 年前
Machine learning has already made liquid biopsy cancer screening possible: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;grail.com&#x2F;multi-cancer-early-detection&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;grail.com&#x2F;multi-cancer-early-detection&#x2F;</a>
nojvek大约 1 年前
The issue with Transformers based AI is humans think it is a golden pill often trusting it more than they should.<p>We are far from AI that models reality.
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sxp大约 1 年前
Saying &quot;AI will cure cancer&quot; is like saying &quot;science will cure cancer&quot; or &quot;doctors will cure cancer&quot;. In general, all three statements are true about technological progress.<p>&gt; Second, AI is used to disproportionately benefit the privileged while worsening inequality.<p>That&#x27;s bullshit. Computers and other gadgets always start out as toys of the rich, but they quickly trickle down to everyone else. Compare the multi-thousand dollar cell phone of the 80s use by the rich to the multi-dollar cell phones of today used by billions. I don&#x27;t mind if billionaires spend their money on AI now so that the R&amp;D results in cheap AI in a decade that can be used by everyone.<p>The author also goes and lists people harmed by computer problems without provide a benchmark of the number of people similarly harmed by human problems.
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bluesounddirect大约 1 年前
Ai will cure our need for looking for magic beans… or in a few thousand years we will have a dune like war with the ai .
geoffdouglas大约 1 年前
AI will cure cancer if it didn’t already just as much AI will help continue prevent the awareness of such cures.
SilentM68大约 1 年前
I think a better title should be, &quot;AI will cure cancer&quot; misunderstands both AI and Big Money!
geoffmac大约 1 年前
This article seems to avoid talking about the core improvement AI will make to radiology - more accurate analysis. It mentions that patients may not get an MRI in the first place...but at least for those who do, surely there will be an improvement. The referral&#x2F;bias issue will exist no matter what the technology is used. garbage article.
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lencastre大约 1 年前
I think AI will detect new forms of cancer that we today believe are not cancer. IANAD
atleastoptimal大约 1 年前
many “AI will never be able to do X” are extrapolations from past versions of AI diagnosis, and don’t entertain a bit of speculative extrapolation over what AI could truly be. it will be so much more than simply analyzing scans.
thenerdhead大约 1 年前
But if we map everything we know and start to collect as much data as possible, we can let machine learning do the heavy lifting…<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.science.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;article&#x2F;giant-project-will-chart-human-immune-diversity-improve-drugs-and-vaccines" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.science.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;article&#x2F;giant-project-will-c...</a><p>I think these general statements are fine. I believe that AI will cure long COVID and ME&#x2F;CFS soon.<p>I have already seen AI predict these illnesses with outstanding accuracy with no known biomarkers identified, drugs and molecules being found to neutralize it, and even new parts of the virus being identified to target.<p>I feel like this is the most exciting time to have one of these illnesses, cancer included. We may indeed find a cure for everything. Or at least everything we amply fund with billions of dollars.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;everycure.org&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;everycure.org&#x2F;</a><p>We just entered the golden age of immune-cell therapies. I just can’t even imagine what we will do in the next ten years.
supergirl大约 1 年前
when people say AI will cure cancer they mean AI will find some novel idea that no-one tought about. the article is more about how AI will fail at medical practice.
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mattmaroon大约 1 年前
I can’t understand why people all write these articles about something fast evolving. Five years ago people would hang thought “AI will make art” laughable and now some very successful movie producers are shuttering projects because they think they’ll be using it soon.<p>Today’s AI won’t cure cancer, but we have no idea what the AI of 20 or 200 years from now will be able to do.
paulmd大约 1 年前
It will misunderstand neither.
skwirl大约 1 年前
This article had nothing to do with AI (and that was the point). It’s largely a regurgitation of the same polemics you’ve read about “capitalism” a thousand times in the last decade with AI in the title just to get you to click.
zamalek大约 1 年前
&quot;AI will...&quot; is either the som of human hopes and dreams, or the sum of human fears. I wonder if industrialization was anything like this (though I don&#x27;t think ML will end up being comparable to the industrial revolution).
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patrickhogan1大约 1 年前
Saying you&#x27;ll cure cancer with AI without specifying the type of cancer is like declaring you&#x27;ll solve crime with Batman. Way too broad to be useful, but makes a good headline.
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resource0x大约 1 年前
Could you name one thing AI can&#x27;t do? AI will cure everything. Whatever remains uncured, quantum computer will cure it too, in a very short order. &#x2F;s
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b20000大约 1 年前
i am puzzled why people think there is true intelligence in AI. IMHO it is advanced interpolation or morphing similar to the photo morphing tools of the 90s. if the data is not in the model you can’t get it out. you can only get interpolations out of it of data in the model. the more sophisticated the interpolation the more people think there is intelligence. maybe i am missing something but this is what i perceive.
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pylua大约 1 年前
I am sure generative ai will be able to cure cancer after humans figure it out then post it to the internet.
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