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The European Union's remarkable growth performance relative to the United States

111 点作者 akyuu大约 1 年前

19 条评论

mikro2nd大约 1 年前
Bizarre to me that "not having tech giants" is seen as a weakness, where I would think that "allowing giant (tech) monopolies" is the bad thing.
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lccerina大约 1 年前
&quot;weaker university rankings&quot;, lol. The ETH Zurich is 7th in the ranking, and does that with tuition fees that are 1&#x2F;10 of MIT...<p>Or do we want to talk about the &gt; 1trillion student debt bubble that keeps US universities afloat?
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FredPret大约 1 年前
I’m sceptical about the claims here - seems like all of the growth is coming from Eastern Europe catching up.<p>True exponential growth requires that everyone get richer over time, all the time, even the rich.<p>It would be wonderful for the world if Europe could grow as rich as the States, so I hope the article is right.
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kypro大约 1 年前
European&#x27;s weakness in my opinion is the size of the state. The state can only grow with private sector growth, but when 50% of all spending in your economy is done by the government and most people are employed either directly or indirectly via the government organic growth (without debt) becomes challenging.<p>Additionally for government to be as large as it is Europe implements significantly higher tax rates than most of the world which results in consumers having less disposable income to spend on products that drive innovation like tech and private companies have less money to invest in new opportunities.<p>Further, Europe is probably the single most unattractive place to start a business from a regulatory perspective in addition to being very unattractive from a tax perspective. Unlike in the US or Dubai where entrepreneurs will travel to start businesses, in the UK you would typically look to do the opposite if possible and start your company somewhere else.<p>Nothing Im saying here is particularly controversial from an economics perspective, yet politically what I&#x27;m saying is highly controversial if you like in Western Europe. I find people here tend to view it as the government&#x27;s job to fix economic issues through investment, interest rate manipulation and debt rather than allowing room for private sector to innovate and grow.<p>At this point the evidence of Europe&#x27;s failed economics policy is clear, and given this you would think politicians would be looking to try something different. But we&#x27;re not. The answer if anything is that the government just isn&#x27;t big enough, there just isn&#x27;t enough regulation, there just isn&#x27;t enough debt and investment, there are too many damn companies making profit while we grow poorer!<p>My guess is that Europe&#x27;s underperformance will continue for a while yet.
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dzink大约 1 年前
The math adds up when you notice a couple of things:<p>1. The EU added Bulgaria, Romania and other new member states in 2007 that expand the population and thus markets to 440 million in the EU vs 300-something in the US.<p>2. Government makes money from every transaction by its residents (and companies, but for per capita metrics, we look at residents)- income, employment, purchases, etc. The US grows by immigration - but fresh immigrants usually jump into employment in lower skilled &#x2F; paid jobs. However the EU with its social policies enables more women to be in the workforce due to better childcare availability and hours and allows individuals to carry less savings because of low cost healthcare and other available safety nets. Poorer people with income buy a lot more staples, food and spend a lot more of their income, boosting the local economy. Wealthier middle class is more likely to save or spend money on bigger things- from real estate to investments to education, but that doesn’t trickle into the GDP as much (education is often non-profit and real estate has capital gains rates). When more people are employed in a country - you see a bigger rise to middle class and more spending per capita and income per capita.<p>To raise GDP per capita, just enable more childcare and support for employment of women. However, since the US government uses unemployment of only people who became recently unemployed and are still looking for jobs instead of all unemployed, to measure all unemployment they would irreversibly damage their performance in their favorite self-improving metric, and would have to do more for their citizens.
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admissionsguy大约 1 年前
Is it possible that the relative strength of the EU per hour worked results from the fact that the low end jobs were made non-existent by regulation and people who work them in the US live off government handouts in the EU?
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graemep大约 1 年前
The big problem with this is that the EU has a lot of very different economies, at different levels of development, significant variations in policies at the national level. If you look at the breakdown in figure two west and north EU economies have been stagnant, the south has declined hugely, while the east has performed really well.
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anonylizard大约 1 年前
The entire article can basically summarized in one sentence<p>&quot;Using PPP instead of USD to measure GDP, significantly shrinks the gap between the EU and the US&quot;<p>Now, using USD has its problems, but PPP&#x27;s primary purpose is living standard comparisons, and doesn&#x27;t work as a national strength comparator.<p>When in a war, you are buying ammunition and weaponry with USD, not PPP. When there&#x27;s a energy shock, you are importing oil and gas with USD, not PPP. When you are in a AI race, you are buying GPUs with USD, not PPP.<p>There&#x27;ll be some people who argue that &#x27;only living standards&#x27; matter. If the two simultaneous hot modern wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and soon Taiwan can&#x27;t convince that hard power matters, then don&#x27;t complain when the draft officer knocks on your door.
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beefman大约 1 年前
&gt; The right metric for international comparisons is purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted output<p>MER is the right metric for most uses. But for comparing growth no currency conversion is needed, obviously.<p>In every period to 2023 from 1995 (1995-2023, 1996-2023, 1997-2023 etc) US GDP growth has exceeded EU GDP growth.<p>US output is 59% higher than in the year 2000. EU output is 36% higher. (Constant local currency data from the respective governments.)
Bostonian大约 1 年前
&#x27;in terms of output per hour worked, some EU countries are as productive as the US&#x27;<p>A weakness of this metric is that you can raise it by having a high minimum wage and other policies that discourage the employment of less skilled workers, while reducing total income by shutting some people out of the labor market.
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neonbones大约 1 年前
&gt;weaker university rankings<p>Really? As far as I know, the most authoritative ranking in academia is the Shanghai ranking[0], where, apart from outliners in the US with gigabudgets, most of the top are made up of European universities. The top looks rather like that, except for a “bunch” of mega popular US universities, the rest are quite mediocre.<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.shanghairanking.com&#x2F;rankings&#x2F;arwu&#x2F;2023" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.shanghairanking.com&#x2F;rankings&#x2F;arwu&#x2F;2023</a>
rco8786大约 1 年前
GDP per capita per hours worked is an interesting metric, and highlights a significant cultural difference between the US and the EU.<p>But for me it&#x27;s a little disingenuous to start taking cherry picked slices of the EU and comparing them against the whole US. If you ignore Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, etc, or just focus on the Northeast corridor or West Coast...no region in the EU comes close in GDP terms.
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Rinzler89大约 1 年前
<i>&gt;Because of the large role of foreign multinationals in Irish GDP, we do not include Ireland in intra-EU groups on panel B.</i><p>Same should be applied for Netherlands and Luxembourg.
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paganel大约 1 年前
&gt; The EU has outperformed the US on per-capita output growth<p>Too bad we&#x27;re demographically dying here in Europe, as in the population has stopped growing.<p>We&#x27;re slowly becoming the 18th century Venice of the global world, i.e. pretty wealthy by the standards from back then but just waiting for a Napoleon to put it out of its geo-strategic irrelevance.
ralusek大约 1 年前
I would imagine that Europe&#x27;s biggest problem is that most of its smartest people tend to work in the US or for US companies or universities.
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xela79大约 1 年前
why are all these discussion threads filled with whataboutism, I would wonder that having equal opportunities across the pond, in either direct, as a positive.
seydor大约 1 年前
... and other stories we tell ourselves to sleep better
bun_terminator大约 1 年前
With of course Germany being dead last
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tekla大约 1 年前
What does the EU even do these days? Can&#x27;t launch things to space, and gets salty that SpaceX is launching Sats for them, can&#x27;t make shells for a war that literally at their doorstep and relies on countries literally half a world away to do basically everything for them (US and SK), barely has a navy that can patrol waters literally next to them and has to rely on the US for boats. Has fewer Carriers than single nations and the ones that the UK has are Diesel because they couldn&#x27;t afford nuclear power.<p>What does the EU even do?
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