Eurovision statistics: final predictions

From what I've read, Loreen from Sweden was pretty nervous during her performance (in comparison to the local competition, where she seemed very secure) which affected how she acted and sung on stage pretty badly. It's nice to see that she still appears to be a favourite, and I hope she gains some courage for the final.<p>(I am Swedish, I have yet to watch this semi-final, and personally don't enjoy her song that much, but is still happy to see that we're doing well.)

I wonder if there might be a difference between viewers of both semi-finals. People have more intent to watch the semi-final where their own country participates.<p>Also, some countries will have failed to advance in the first semi-final. Would they be even less likely to watch the second semi-final and the final?<p>If there would be a way to estimate the viewer's distribution for each show, it could improve the accuracy under this model.

What are twitter and the book makers predicting?

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