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Are You in a Bubble?

22 点作者 pacov将近 13 年前

11 条评论

davepeck将近 13 年前
Why think about it when <a href="http://TechBubbleForEveryoneOrJustMe.com/" rel="nofollow">http://TechBubbleForEveryoneOrJustMe.com/</a> has you covered? ;-)
peteforde将近 13 年前
There's a lot of smoke being blown into this "bubble".<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0I4VKj4d0WI" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0I4VKj4d0WI</a><p>Personally, I can't wait for the pendulum to swing. People seem to have forgotten that it's far easier to launch a company when everyone else is panicking and running for safety. You're competing with fewer players, it's easier to find talent and there's more of a focus on starting actual businesses that generate sustained, predictable revenue.<p>Sounds great to me.
mephi5t0将近 13 年前
I am not in bubble. I AM bubble. 16 yrs in IT add pounds.<p>On the other hand: I don't think Facebook "bubbles" will impact IT in a big way. Theoretically, if FB drops dead tomorrow - tech won't suffer that much. It will hurt companies that do business with FB, some marketing people like BuddyMedia etc. But there will be something else to do. And tech market is not based on FB, FB is a niche.
kurtvarner将近 13 年前
<i>On the other hand, the Facebook bubble could pop any day. Most of the world would barely notice, and LinkedIn would still get business from other growing industries. Disclosure: I own LNKD shares.</i><p>Of course he's a believer in LinkedIn and owns shares. His company was acquired by them. I'd like to know if he actually purchased more shares than what he was given with the acquisition.
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stevenj将近 13 年前
The price of the biggest new tech company of all, Facebook, has done nothing but go down since its IPO.<p>The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion.<p>That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
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altrego99将近 13 年前
Reading the title, can't help reacalling Remember Me from TNG, where Beverly Crusher gets entrapped in a warp bubble. Oh, those were the days... watching TNG on nights before almost every exams.
ixacto将近 13 年前
FB is worth approximately the same as Kraft foods (70 vs 68 BN). Take away FB for 3 days and you get people bitching on twitter and some lost business for their advertisers. Take away junk food for 3 days and you get riots. Here is what wolfram-alpha thinks FB is going to do: <a href="http://imgur.com/2c5me" rel="nofollow">http://imgur.com/2c5me</a><p>Which company will be here in 20 years...
nc17将近 13 年前
It's not just tech bloggers, here's an article by the Washington Post about Facebook and traders betting against it:<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/could-facebook-fall-all-the-way-to-22/2012/05/24/gJQADFuenU_story.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/could-facebook-fall-a...</a>
jakejake将近 13 年前
It does in some ways remind me of the first bubble and I'd like to think that we're all a lot smarter now. I don't really see a massive crash happening like before. But anytime there are huge businesses which are not actually making the revenue to merit their stock valuation - there is potential of trouble.
michaelochurch将近 13 年前
My issue with this bubble is that there's no underlying. Instead of green technology, we see Zynga employing people who work full-time trying to exploit the same class of people that were targeted by the dreaded telemarketers of 10 years ago.<p>The late-90s bubble was frothier, with all the talk of a recession-proof "New Economy" (oddly, most people now long for the Old one) and the massively overvalued technology stocks. Even still, there was a real underlying. The Internet really was changing the way people do business in a rather permanent way. The reason for the bubble was that people overestimated how soon certain changes would arrive.<p>This bubble doesn't have much of an underlying. I'd even argue that there isn't one. Facebook is a decent product and has provided a lot of value to its users, but it's not as earth-shaking as the Internet, and these "Facebook's tapeworm" startups like Zynga are insults to the millions of people trying to build things that are real. Also, the current climate of extreme social openness (where people want to broadcast their careers and locations without thought to whether they really want people to have access to that data in 5 years) is going to end, and the "cool" social startups will either be dead, or successful and "uncool", within a few years.
wavephorm将近 13 年前
I bet a lot of VC and angel investors right now are looking at those FB quotes and starting to get a knot in their stomach. The jig is up, the Social Network Bubble that VC's have been hyping and pumping non-stop for the past couple years is over. I bet we'll see a return to interest in companies that have actual revenue, actual customers, and actual businesses.
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