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'Still No Stag and Not Much Flation'

6 点作者 MilnerRoute大约 1 年前

3 条评论

cs702大约 1 年前
Maybe, but I&#x27;d be cautious about singing victory too soon. Since the pandemic, so many macroeconomic forecasts have been proven wrong (from &quot;the sky is falling!&quot; to &quot;everything is great!&quot;) that I&#x27;ve become very skeptical of current forecasts.<p>In the past, there have been periods during which inflation has seemed to be under control, but actually <i>wasn&#x27;t</i>! For example, during the &quot;stagflation&quot; of the 1970&#x27;s, the inflation rate (w&#x2F;o food an energy) dropped down and seemed to be under control -- <i>twice</i> -- only to jump back up again each time:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;fredgraph.png?g=1kT7i" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;fredgraph.png?g=1kT7i</a><p>Getting inflation under control has proven very difficult in the past. It took three long years of rising interest rates to end the inflation of the 1970&#x27;s for good. Paul Volcker at the Fed had to raise interest rate to nearly 20% to accomplish it.[a] The 10-year treasury rate hit almost 16%.[b] It was <i>very</i> painful for a lot of people.<p>I think the right mindset right now is to &quot;wait and see.&quot;<p>And make sure you have a contingency plan!<p>---<p>[a] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;fredgraph.png?g=1mM6j" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;fredgraph.png?g=1mM6j</a><p>[b] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;fredgraph.png?g=1mM6m" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;graph&#x2F;fredgraph.png?g=1mM6m</a>
creer大约 1 年前
What bothers me more is that there are different underlying mechanisms for - well, different kinds of inflation. Do interest rates really address them all? No.<p>- &quot;supply chain chaos&quot; is a good excuse to raise prices<p>- artificially limited supply, will raise prices<p>- displaced bond supply, will raise equity prices<p>- world awash in printed money, will raise all prices<p>- interest rates too low, growth too high, raises prices<p>- world conflicts, sure why not<p>And for now there is mostly just one response: raise interest rates. Even that response is somewhat countered by:<p>- &quot;but wait we must re-shore&quot;, floods money, will raise prices<p>If you posit that simply interest rates were too low, then sure, all other things being equal, you might raise interest rates and wait a while. Crude but not unreasonable. But what when you have a mess of underlying causes (some of which staggeringly large). Just slightly higher interest rates for a few months doesn&#x27;t resolve all these other causes.<p>To be fair, it&#x27;s not all bad: There are still a few now well established deflationary pressures and that&#x27;s a good thing:<p>- awareness of competition, willingness to compete<p>- &quot;low cost countries&quot; manufacturing<p>- continuing tech advances<p>- willingness to substitute
thelastgallon大约 1 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;nIKAI" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;nIKAI</a>