Yaan LeCun @ Meta has been similarly skeptical that performance of LLMs and generative AI systems can dramatically improve without a change in approach.
Paper discussion: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40307832">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40307832</a>
This is quite a interesting finding. And if it holds it does suggest to me that we will see all sorts of excuses for the lack of further significant progress coming from AI companies in the near future.
No, because we never know what's around the corner. Even Moore's law didn't peak. As long as there is fierce competition, things will continue to move forward.