6 days ago here in Australia a local army lawyer (David McBride) was given a 5 year 8 month stint for leaking classified documents. The documentation was around Australian SAS soldiers committing war crimes in Afghanistan. Given they're all still free and the conventional wisdom here is that McBride was made an example of to ensure the US didn't think Australia was soft on leakers; I don't think Assange's chances of freedom are good.