Nvidia is about to pass Apple in market cap

AI demand doesn't look like it's going anywhere in the next year, and their revenue is at least in the ballpark (26b vs 90b for apple). That said, price is usually dictated by the delta in growth. I think it's unrealistic to expect another 262% YoY growth over the next 12 months for Nvidia, especially with a lot of their upper-limit being determined by TSMC's capacity. In addition, there are significant pushes in motion to get processing on-device, both for security reasons and price reasons. I can't see these earnings being sustainable for nvidia over the long run.

My non-finance spider senses tell me this will be the most epic market crash of all time, does anyone think otherwise?

It is kind of interesting to see that even with this crazy run up in price over the past week, the PE ratio is around ~65 (for comparison Apple&#x27;s PE is at ~30 and AMD is ~240). Considering the &quot;expected growth&quot; in AI the PE ratio doesn&#x27;t seem too bad. Of course, PE ratio is just one parameter and doesn&#x27;t necessarily describe the whole picture.<p>I also wonder whether the announced stock split is contributing to the short-term price increase (since people will expect more money to flow in once the stock is a more &quot;accessible&quot; ~$100).

It&#x27;s maybe reasonable to consider this an absurd bubble surrounding AI, but it <i>is</i> a demand-driven phenomenon from the point of view of Nvidia.<p>Right now, you can listen to CEOs of Nvidia&#x27;s biggest clients saying things like &quot;the current bottleneck is the bureaucracy around building nuclear powerplants to provide energy to our datacenters&quot;. The Saudi investment fund is shopping around for AI ventures to throw hundreds of billions at. Altman is suggesting he&#x27;d be able to utilise a multi-trillion dollar raise. These are big indicators that the demand for Nvidia&#x27;s products will remain strong for some time to come.<p>The amount of money that is aimed at AI, which ultimately a large portion of will land in Nvidia&#x27;s bank account, is staggering.

In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. - Warren Buffett

Every Tom, Dick and Harry&#x27;s DCF (using FCF) analysis on the market says they&#x27;re overvalued, so if you wanted in, you&#x27;d better do your homework on what you think is an acceptable MC value.

Nvidia essentially has no competitors so far, the competitors are in fact years behind, the moat is deep and wide, it will be the No1 market cap company for a few years down the road probably, if it keeps executing well that is. Apple&#x27;s all products can easily be replaced.<p>Nvidia could buy some cloud companies to become AI-cloud vendor too, instead of just selling equipment and chips, that will make it even bigger.

Is it too late to buy?