Nvidia overtakes Apple as No. 2 most valuable company

If anything, this tells me that NVIDIA is overvalued and should face a correction soon-ish once&#x2F;if the AI hype flattens down a bit<p>But then again, I don’t know anything about market dynamics. Just judging based on what each company does in the world

Once we start to see diminishing returns to model size and model performance begins to plateau (we are already nearing the plateau) we will have a set of models all pretty close to one another in performance which will be made available for downstream workloads on demand.<p>The consequences of this will be twofold. First, there will be less incentive for new entrants to train proprietary models as performance across SOTA models will be uniform and thus less possibility of differentiation and gaining market share. Second, there will be less incentive for SOTA model developers to invest heavily in GPUs because of diminishing returns.<p>Now the beauty of LLMs is that inference requires orders of magnitude less compute than training. So once we have a stable of performance plateaued models, compute demand will drop off a cliff.<p>Once we get over this mad rush to train train train, GPU orders are going to crater.<p>The two critical assumptions I&#x27;m making are 1) we are rapidly approaching a performance plateau and 2) models other than LLM&#x27;s are much less widely useful than LLM&#x27;s. Image generation I see as a fad, I played around with it a ton last year but haven&#x27;t touched it since. Other niche models will have very little general applicability compared to LLM&#x27;s.

Discussion [0] (67 points, 6 hours ago, 105 comments)<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=40589585">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=40589585</a>

We are more than due for an AI tech correction. NVIDIA is increasingly getting overvalued if not it already is due to the unsustainable AI hype with low competition.<p>All hanging on the geo-political risks and US tensions with China around Taiwan, risking disruption to the semiconductor industry and over relying on Taiwan as the top supplier.<p>If it were me, I would start selling. History has taught us that the same happened with Intel in the 1990s when it peaked with the PC revolution and the same happened with Cisco when it peaked with the growth of the internet.<p>Very concerning.

[dupe]<p>Some more discussion: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=40589585">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=40589585</a>

I&#x27;m wondering what will happen when competition finally shows up. While I&#x27;m not an expert, I&#x27;m sure cloud providers would love to stop paying high prices for hardware. CUDA seemed like the roadblock,, but that can only last so long right?<p>Disclaimer: It&#x27;s been a while since I&#x27;ve worked on an implementation involving GPUs.

Here&#x27;s the theory: We are only at the beginning of the AI revolution. Every single job that requires a brain will have that brain replaced with NVDA chips. As of now there are still far too many wetware brains still working. That&#x27;s addressable market for NVDA.

It might be overvalued, but I am very glad I bought a few shares of Nvidia in March of last year. I&#x27;m wishing I bought more in hindsight, but a win is a win, and hey if they do that 10-to-1 split I&#x27;ll have a lot of shares and I&#x27;ll get to feel important.

Nutty, considering they have not one but two competitors (Intel and AMD) with strong competing products. The assumption that they’ll continue cranking out such margins in decades to come is comically wrong.

Listening to bits of the keynotes and he likens the &quot;NIMS&quot; to be prepackaged software (ala Microsoft in the 90s) that can run on any PC. It sounds to me like he is striving to be a monopolist.

Any reason why Nvidia doesn&#x27;t expand into building their own data centers and cloud platform? Seems like the logical next step once you own the chips everyone wants, giving them more moat. Of course, that&#x27;s not their core business and maybe not their expertise, but I&#x27;d expect they can acquire it.

Saved you a click:<p>&quot;Nvidia&#x27;s stock rose 5.2% to end the day at $1,224.40, valuing the company at $3.012 trillion. Apple&#x27;s market capitalization was last at $3.003 trillion after its stock climbed 0.8%.<p>Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab, based in Redmond, Washington, remained the world&#x27;s most valuable company at $3.15 trillion after its shares climbed 1.9%&quot;

One makes the largest computation infrastructure to run language models.<p>The other makes overpriced GPUs.<p>Which one is living in a bubble?