OpenAI Insider Estimates 70% Chance AI Will Destroy or Tragically Harm Humanity

22 点作者 jc_81112 个月前

21 条评论

talldayo12 个月前

At this point, you can practically predict what OpenAI will announce to the press next. It's the same Skinner/Chalmers routine over-and-over-and-over again."Good lord, what is happening in there? Life-changing AI implementations that could destroy all human life as we know it? Localized entirely within your laboratory?""Yes""May I see it?""No"

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staticman212 个月前

Is this a time bound prediction, or is it 70% chance AI will tragically harm humanity between now and the death of our species?The sun begins to die 5 billion years from now, so is this an estimate there's a 70% chance someone will "tragically harm humanity" with AI in the next 5 billion years?Or are they positing humans will survive the death of our sun, and concluding between now and infinity, someone somewhere will tragically harm someone with AI?If this is true someone at some point between now and infinity should really get on this, perhaps we might estimate that around 2.5 billion years from now, we'll need to write some regulations.

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jraines12 个月前

Not asking, and pressing on, “How?” in most of these is journalistic malpractice.“Does it involve creation of technology that doesn’t exist now?”“Does it involve physically impossible nanotech?”“Does it involve assuming the personal safety of every person with a any degree of control over it?”

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cosmotic12 个月前

Reminds me of the comic "Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders."

lawn12 个月前

Is that insider perhaps employed to do marketing?

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ChrisArchitect12 个月前

[dupe]Some more discussion last week: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40579104">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40579104</a><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40576018">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40576018</a><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40574355">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40574355</a>The letter site: <a href="https://righttowarn.ai/" rel="nofollow">https://righttowarn.ai/</a>

DebtDeflation12 个月前

Would have been far more believable if they said 71.24% chance. 70% sounds like they're just spitballing.

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jp5712 个月前

Tragic harm can take many forms. I think one likely tragic harm is the mundane one: our grandchildren live in a version of the spaceship from WALL-E, except it is their minds that are floating around in chaises longues drinking slurpees and getting fat.

patrakov12 个月前

AI will not harm humanity. Nuclear weapons will not harm humanity. Bad humans will.

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cm218712 个月前

Is there any technology you can't say that about?

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jackmalpo12 个月前

There's a 70% chance that their ability to predict the future is flawed.

OutOfHere12 个月前

It's up to humans to use AI well to improve the human condition or to harm it. We know for a fact that the axis of evil (RICIN) (Russia, Iran, China, Israel, North Korea) will use it to do their worst. The only way to counter bad AI is with good AI.

noobermin12 个月前

May be I'm ignorant but how does anyone go about estimating this, much less doing so in a realistic fashion? The article states AGI will be developed by these people by 2027, but we've heard all the estimates that we'd have self driving cars by now and most people wouldn't drive, while self driving cars are becoming a thing, they missed their target year by years now.Unless I'm mistaken, even GenAI hasn't really changed anything worthwhile. Most of the changes I see are a) most of the scummy and creepy internet ads are now AI generated b) endless spam is now AI generated and c) the latest round of tech layoffs used GenAI as an excuse. Has there been an actual revolution I've missed?...and so, if GenAI hasn't lived up to the hype, how am I supposed to believe that this industry will make actual existing AGI?

tippytippytango12 个月前

There's too much alpha in being a doom sayer.

agentultra12 个月前

Prove it.The open letter this article is based on still cites, "existential risk."Define what AGI is. Show us evidence the technology is on track to implement it.This whole "AI safety" scene is becoming a circus for conspiracy theories and speculation.As far as I can tell we're reaching the point of diminishing returns in training LLMs... which is already rather destructive.What's telling is that we don't see similar "safety" committees there trying to protect water in distressed ecosystems, regulate building/zoning of data-centres, energy usage; protecting workers used in alignment and training; protecting workers displaced by the technology and poor policies, etc.

davidguetta12 个月前

'Some guy has an opinion, which also seem to be aligned with the importance of the products he works on'

callamdelaney12 个月前

Ah yes, the primary threat to humanity, a random word generator.

kylecazar12 个月前

I am so tired of these meaningless warnings.

liampulles12 个月前

TLDR: Daniel Kokotajlo (ex-OpenAI employee) puts chances of AI doom at 70%.Source is actually here: <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xDkdR6JcQsCdnFpaQ/adumbrations-on-agi-from-an-outsider#sHnfPe5pHJhjJuCWW" rel="nofollow">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xDkdR6JcQsCdnFpaQ/adumbratio...</a>

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squircle12 个月前

Children playing with fire.Did you try turning it off and back on again?"Oh, but how will we ever get to the stars without it?"Do you know what type-III civilizations don't appreciate? Stupidity.

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Saulivar12 个月前

Looking at the way soldiers in Ukraine or civilians in Russia are being blown up to pieces by small drones, I'd say we're already here. And these drones are driven by AI, so even if GPS is jammed, these drones are intelligent enough to find their target without it.Now imagine that AI has access to anybody's search history, plus that person is using a trackable phone, who's to say that a small FPV drone cannot be sent to get the job done? The way it's done in Ukraine?I think we as humanity are facing mortal danger RIGHT NOW, not in the future. AI is killing humans on almost industrial. Especially because, well, some people might argue that's the entire goal. So AI is making it much easier.

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