Toyota Expects Its First Loss in 70 Years

70 years sounds pretty good, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Toyota was supported by the Japanese government (through subsidies, capital controls and trade restrictions) for quite a few years after it switched over from textile manufacturing to automobiles in 1933. It was even bailed out in 1949 when it had major liquidity problems.<p>So while the 70 years of no operating losses is technically true, there was a period of time where Toyota was practically propped up by the Japanese government.<p>References:<p>(1) <a href="http://www.shmula.com/291/toyota-motor-corporation-company-history" rel="nofollow">http://www.shmula.com/291/toyota-motor-corporation-company-h...</a><p>(2) The economist Ha-Joon Chang also has some good discussion on the Japanese government's involvement with Toyota (eg. <a href="http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=9653" rel="nofollow">http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=96...</a>)

<i>The financial turmoil has also hurt carmakers by driving up the value of the Japanese yen, which has risen some 25 percent since summer.</i><p>Without the dramatic change in the value of the yen Toyota would still have made a profit. What's interesting is seeing how much faster they are responding to a single missed year than GM is to there approaching bankruptcy.<p>PS: The the parent company is still posting a <i>$560 million</i> profit so they are a long way from real trouble.

Toyota can ride this out. With a larger non-US presence combined with their cash stockpile they shouldn't be too worried about what's happening now.<p>The real problems would be: a) oil prices re-spike and people start moving away from cars as a form of transportation toward things like trains/busses; b) after this recession, people decide they don't need new cars that often and hang onto their vehicles a lot longer; c) Chinese auto companies enter the world stage.<p>I don't think the first two will happen since we'll be back to consumerist exuberance in a year or two forgetting the whole "save for a rainy day" thing and I think oil producing countries have realized that stable oil prices are in their interest as nothing drives fervor for alternative energy like high gas prices.

“The change in the world economy is of a magnitude that comes once every hundred years,” Toyota’s president, Katsuaki Watanabe, told a news conference.<p>Uhoh it's the once every 100 years talk. Sounds like Zuckerberg speak.