Facebook Will Disappear by 2020

Ok, so basically the very deep and smart analysis consists in one argument: Facebook is a website, so there's no way it's ever going to become a mobile company.<p>Besides the shallowness of this argument, I think it makes two assumptions that are not justified:<p>- Since no company has succeeded in transitioning from one era to the other, no company in the future will ever succeed. The premise is debatable (Is Google really a failure?), but I think that the conclusion is flat out wrong.<p>- The next generation of internet companies will be mobile, and the only way forward for facebook is to go mobile. Well, mobile is obviously one way forward, but is it the only one? Who knows what facebook is going to come up with.<p>Anyway, I'm not sure that the article brings anything interesting..

You have to take everything a hedge fund trader says with a grain of salt. These guys are making bets both upwards and downwards on the same day.<p>For all I know they've got a program that detects when this article hits the web and that triggers a trade, and then an hour later their program triggers another trade.

The article may make some good points, but I refuse to give page views to arrogant link-bait "Contrarian Event X will Happen By Year Y" titles.

The title of the article is somewhat misleading. Facebook will likely encounter monetization problems as the supremacy of mobile apps over the web continues but it doesn't mean they will just "disappear".<p>If Facebook disappears like Yahoo is doing, someone is going to have to come up with a disruptive solution (like Google did in search). Right now that option doesn't exist.<p>There certainly will be web companies that won't make the transition but Facebook seems to be in the best position to do so. The vast amount of information that they have on their users makes it so.

It's probably a safe bet that any web-based service will disappear by 2020, or at least change so much that it's completely unrecognizable.

Well, I highly suspect Google won't be the same as it is now by 2020 either. That isn't saying much. Part of reaching a so-called technological singularity involves very fast changes.