Avoided a recession seems to be a call that it's too early to make. Danielle Demartino Booth, formerly of the Dallas Fed, suggests we've actually been in one since October. The National Bureau of Economic Research always calls a recession after it has started (and sometimes, even after it has ended).<p>Saying the Fed has avoided a recession amusingly also puts way too much credit/blame on the Fed for the state of the economy. They're a bank regulator, and not much else. And given the global nature of the Eurodollar system, not even particularly central, though, since the death of LIBOR and the advent of SOFR, it could be argued they do at least have a little more sway than in prior decades. When Congress is busy spending trillions and the Treasury is busy issuing debt at a record pace while the Fed simply adjusts interest rates at the immediate end of the curve, it hardly seems sensible to look to them for why the economy is doing whatever it is.