Scenario: We crack fusion. It 10x's global power output at the same cost as we pay today.
Question: What changes? Which industries rise? Which fall?
If energy is not the issue anymore, materials become the bottleneck. Earth is large, but finite.<p>Mining becomes an even worse issue than oil (harder to find and extract; even more critical for empires to control).<p>Maybe recycling metals efficiently may soften the problem, but not for long, as replacing oil-based systems with electric ones will incur a massive extraction/refinement effort at a scale we collectively haven't reached yet.<p>Space discovery/mining/transport may be the only option from this perspective. But it has its own set of drawbacks too.<p>More energy available "should" mean more automation, less concentration of power (political or business), clean water, food, and given the fruits are redistributed evenly, more peace. But raw materials are also part of the equation.
Petrochemical power generation essentially ceases, and electrification of vehicles accelerates rapidly. The environmental damage shifts from petrochemical extraction to batteries, as it’s already doing (you’ve still got a storage problem unless Mr. Fusion gets cracked too), and petrochemical industries shift to plastics and fertilizers, as they’ve also been doing. The main industry that rises is magneto-engineering (stable power-generating fusion needs containment, not just ignition) and the main industry that falls is solar cells and (hopefully) ethanol corn.
Energy surplus can be as much of a problem as a benefit. If you look at most economies with baseload power, they're trying to work out how to balance it with renewables.<p>Much of the costs of Energy are in distribution. Fusion power is more centralised and will incur more transmission costs than renewables close to consumption.<p>Probably its best use is decarbonisation of steel and production of nitrate/methane feedstock for fertiliser and industry.<p>Energy is not equally distributed. 10x would be in the hands of energy rich economies, not helping emerging economies.<p>Mining and metallurgy change their inputs. That's about all.<p>Possibly, public mass transport moves to more electrified modes but at scale that's still just oil displacement. Again the biggest benefit would be in emerging economies or in population centres like Beijing, Delhi and Dacca. If they had mass transit by electricity the amount of smog and public health benefits would be huge.<p>10x is unlikely btw. Fusion does not look to be cheap. It's a huge capital investment, comparable to fission, but bigger and mainly to avoid a small waste problem at point of use (it truly is small. High intensity radioactivityis understood, its NIMBYism stopping its storage mostly), plus avoidance of a huge mining waste and proliferation problem, but the thing is even Fusion will come with proliferation risks: it's still emitting neutrons, and can still irradiate materials. Tritium, will be needed in huge supply. Maybe from.. breeder reactors?
Is it a "Mr. Fusion" sort of device you can use to power your car or home?<p>Or does it require a gigantic 10 sq km facility to reach that efficiency, but where the result can power Germany?<p>Or does it require special conditions, like cheap fusion from sea water at 1000m depth where Puerto Rico has an advantage over Nebraska?<p>Or massive amounts of cooling?<p>What materials are needed? If cobalt, will the DRC be the new Saudi Arabia?<p>Will the 9x new energy production be used for carbon capture after the Great Heat of 2028?<p>These give very different answers.
During off hours the surplus power can be diverted to producing hydrogen, a zero CO2 fuel, thus providing for transportation as well as baseline power.
Trash disposal beccones simpler as plentiful cheap power enables plasma gasification, one of the cleanest methods.<p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_gasification" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_gasification</a>
True fusion power? Rather than based on fusion steam power? As in, can collect and utilize the gama release? (Of which we are hundreds if not a thousand years away from.)<p>Floating cities, space ships that can travel at 80% the speed of light, and of course, whatever you need to run the most intense computational requirements, continually.<p>You may balk at "floating cities" (and I do mean actually flying cities that float in the clouds), yet once matter can be efficiently accelerated toward the speed of light, using such accelerated matter as a superior form of propulsion is right around the corner.<p>For comparison, one gallon of rich hydrogen (deuterium or tritium) contains the energy potential of ONE THOUSAND gallons of oil. That's by fusion not by burning which your quick search may turn up