The Private Equity Bubble Is About to Deflate

This is neither prescient nor particularly insightful. Private equity metrics have been down for a while: fundraising down 20% since 2022, distributions down 11%, deal value and count down 60% and 35% respectively, exit value down 24% YoY.<p>PE is fueled by interest rates, and the entire thesis has flipped from revenue&#x2F;growth to EBITDA. The shift is exposing some dogs: both PortCos that can&#x27;t hide fundamental business model issues behind cheap capital and PE firms that can&#x27;t lead operations and financing in a new environment. The correction is well underway.

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This article is too strong on vibes and lacks data beyond &quot;there&#x27;s a lot more money in private equity than there used to be.&quot;<p>Also, private equity includes a broad range of investors, from angels that fund unlikely-to-ever-be-profitable startups to leveraged buyout firms that take large companies private because they think they can do better than current management, to vulture funds that snap up bankrupt companies.<p>I&#x27;m not even clear what the author is talking about here.

Since 2021 I keep reading doomsayer articles about how one part of the economy (or the whole thing) is going to crash. I feel like pundits just put out a negative naysayer article every six months so if it happens they point back and say &quot;see, I called it&quot;!

If this is true-- I have no idea!-- and you are young and working this is great news. A crash is a good opportunity too.

All of a sudden SaaS vendors that no longer have their round C, D, {insert-letter} funding are raising their prices.