AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy

I’ve totally given up trying to have this debate, and everyone else senior in AI in practice seems to feel the same<p>People want scary powerful terminator&#x2F;skynet like AI cause, like dictators, they think democratized advanced technology will give them the power they always wanted to live the dream - despite what we know of history<p>Ok fine.<p>Since we can’t agree to limit ourselves, lets go as fast as we can and see what happens. That’s what I’m doing

I&#x27;m not an expert on the subject, but this seems like a very insightful post. I especially liked the part about forecast skill analysis being impossible for tail risks.