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Is the Euro the New Dollar?

33 点作者 noor420超过 16 年前

8 条评论

patrickg-zill超过 16 年前
My understanding is that 85% of international trade is settled or conducted in USD.<p>If the Euro is on track to replace the US Dollar, then surely there are stats showing that use of the Euro to conduct international trade is growing, in areas where USD was formerly used.<p>Since this is after all Time, it is no surprise that no such stats are quoted and instead we get News McNuggets.
dc2k08超过 16 年前
China announced on christmas day that it was gearing the yuan to be used as an international currency as more and more businesses are worried about trading in the dollar.<p>There is also evidence that China is moving away from its reliance on exports for economic growths towards a more consumer driven economic model by setting up distribution centres in rural areas and offering subsidies to rural households for the purchase of household appliances and other goods. They are though also strengthening trade relations in emerging markets.<p>A number of Gulf Arab states will maintain their 2010 deadline for a single currency, the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council also announced recently.<p>This all means that yes, the dollar is being put to sleep and 2009 will be a disaster year for it and the American economy, but it does not mean the Euro will replace it. The Yuan will become the currency for trade with China and the GCC will be seeking to promote their own single currency.
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tokenadult超过 16 年前
"European Commission President José Manuel Barroso credits the euro for delivering lower inflation, lower interest rates and greater price stability, and helping create 16 million jobs."<p>Krugman, in an article from the 1990s in Slate cited recently here on HN, expressed the opinion that the Euro would reduce employment growth in Europe, which didn't seem very plausible to me.
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sachinag超过 16 年前
Wow, a bunch of comments here and no one's mentioned that oil is traded in dollars. If oil kicks of a wave of commodities being traded in Euros, then yes, the Euro will be the new Dollar.<p>At the end of the day, the dominant currency is the one most people use. In 1900, the language of international relations (and trade) was French.
mdasen超过 16 年前
No, it isn't. Definitely not yet. While the dollar's reputation has been damaged by the Bush years, the dollar made its way through two world wars and the cold war without the problems that most European currencies faced. As Warren Buffet says, "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it." And it's true that while the dollar won't be seen in the pre-Bush light for a couple decades, it's not as if it's been replaced (yet). The euro has done well in its 10-year history and has been wonderful for Europe (both stimulating trade and creating stability - I'm a huge euro supporter), but it's only existed for 10 years in what has been a relatively safe economic time. This is the first real test of the euro and we are far from seeing how it is faring.<p>Exchange rates aren't a good way of measuring a currency, even though they would seem like one. The fact is that currency valuations are usually tied to the interest rates you can earn in banks of that currency. The ECB (European Central Bank) has always kept interest rates high. That encourages people to change dollars into euros and deposit them in European banks which drives up the price of the euro in foreign exchange markets. However, high interest rates also discourage the investment in businesses that drives an economy. So, one can't say that the euro's strength benefits its people.<p>And that's what you need to do: to look at how a currency is serving the people under it. The Federal Reserve has proven over decades that it can effectively fight both booms and recessions. In a recession, one needs to expand the money supply. That makes it easier for borrowing and therefore investing and spending - exactly what we're seeing missing from our current situation. People have stopped borrowing, investing, and spending because of the high cost of it (compared to boom times) and so by making it easier to do those things we can mitigate some of the pain of the recession and make the whole recession shorter as we more quickly encourage business to return to normal.*<p>The ECB has lowered interest rates, but the ECB's policy has always been to target inflation and not mitigate recession. Partly this comes from differences between Europe and America. Europe has had many currencies in the past that just free-fell. Inflation was terrible, currency unstable, etc. Likewise, governments have large social programs in Europe and high unemployment is seen as a way of life rather than a disaster. For example, in Germany 8% unemployment is amazing. In the US, we call for politicians' heads when it hits that level. But European countries are more capable of handling such unemployment without huge upheaval because the social programs keep people at bay and without as much worry about a paycheck.<p>*This is the consensus of mainstream economics in the same way that the existence of global warming is the consensus of mainstream climate scientists. Yes, you can always find those who will disagree with anything.
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lionhearted超过 16 年前
One interesting point is that some individual countries on the euro can't optimize their currency strategy now. The example I've heard a few times that makes sense is Italy. When they needed to in the past, they could sink the value of their currency to stimulate Italian exports. Now, not so much - and euro stronger than other global countries reduces demand for Italian goods. It'll be interesting to see how the euro works out when a couple local economies in Europe are in bad shape and would love to have a stronger or weaker currency than the rest of the Union.
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zitterbewegung超过 16 年前
Wouldn't it be a better idea to court european VC's than american because they might pay you in euros?
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vaksel超过 16 年前
not yet