The big three reasons infectious disease isn't keeping human populations at 1850 levels are: (A) soap and disinfectants across the board, (B) vaccines and (C) antibiotics.<p>Yes, there have been problems in all these areas - some cleaning agents turned out to be carcinogenic or caused liver damage and other issues, overuse of antibiotics gave rise to antibiotic resistance in many infectious microbes, and some vaccines have been ineffective, induced too many negative side effects, or were subject to contamination due to poor manufacturing and distribution policies.<p>With Covid vaccines, looking at the references in the above publication is illuminating. Here's an inital 2020 safety/efficacy claim:<p><a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577" rel="nofollow">https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577</a><p>> "BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19 (95% credible interval, 90.3 to 97.6). Similar vaccine efficacy (generally 90 to 100%) was observed across subgroups defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, baseline body-mass index, and the presence of coexisting conditions."<p>By 2023, it was clear the rapid mutation rate of the virus had lead to many infections of fully vaccinated individuals, indeed it may have become entirely ineffective in preventing infection, though possibly reducing symptom severity:<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10482361/" rel="nofollow">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10482361/</a><p>> "...the bivalent-vaccinated group had a slightly but statistically significantly higher infection rate than the unvaccinated group in the statewide category and the age ≥50 years category. However, in the older age category (≥65 years), there was no significant difference in infection rates between the two groups. This suggests that while the bivalent vaccine might offer protection against severe outcomes, it may not significantly reduce the risk of infections entirely."<p>Since many health professionals and affiliated media were initially claiming that only the unvaccinated were at risk for Covid infection, this later reversal understandably may have reduced public trust in future pronouncements about vaccine efficacy, which is unfortunate. (IMO side effects were mininal compared to eg smallpox vaccine, claims of widespread vaccine injury seem grossly overblown)<p>The lesson is that rushing vaccine development in response to an emergency didn't work out quite as advertised, and really isn't the best way to develop vaccines.